I admit that as an antifascist for three decades, I have not foreseen that the fall of the West would start with the race issue. As a progressive mind, race is not on the radar when pondering the future, even although I knew the relevant science. I just did not attend to the connections that race keeps real despite of our denial. I expected bad times to arrive with ideological revolutions, some religion old or novel, or due to ecological disaster. Not race!
Now, as race riots and race-flash-mob-violence sweeps the US, 138 thousand Germans (according to Destatis) escaped Germany in 2015 in order to get away from the dismal public safety situation and dark future prospects, as well as the banning of relevant speech and the rampant extrajudicial prosecutions that are catalyzed by the internet’s social networks – they work just like the old witch hunts, modern mob violence that destroys careers and families without the victims being able to even point to specific perpetrators. Especially high IQ sub-populations are targeted. This is natural, because intelligent people are usually those who have something relevant to say. Moreover, especially Whites and White males as well as Jews are targeted, which thus samples the sub-populations with the highest IQs. Since the intelligent flee, one speaks commonly of ‘brain-drain’.
The average IQ in Germany declined by four points (from 102 down to 98) over the last decade (2003 to 2013). That is 0.4 points per year. It needs only 4 to 5 years until it falls below 96, the threshold between rather lawful civilized society and widespread corruption. What is the brain-drain’s contribution to this decay?
Germany has 82 million people. 138 thousand Germans left, the same as if every German above IQ 142 had left.
(You can check that yourself: Paste"=82175700*(NORMDIST(200,98,15,TRUE)-NORMDIST(142,98,15,TRUE))" into an Excel spreadsheet formula and hit enter to evaluate. Then start to play, but careful. I did this once and became a racist! Just joking, I have always been a racist. But not kidding – you might end up spending weekends on simulating populations like here or here or here.)
There are Germans below 142 IQ that left and as many above 142 stayed, so this is an overestimation of the effect. Nevertheless, this brain-drain would depress the German average IQ by only 0.08 points, far less than the usual 0.4 points per year. (So since that was an overestimation ... do I have to spell it out?)
Germany received over a million refugees in 2015. Syria has average IQ 83 and 17 million people. 1.95 million fled Syria, the same as if every Syrian above 101 had left. According to this overestimate of brain-drain, even the least intelligent Syrian refugee is still more intelligent than the average IQ in Germany!
(Doing this for Africa instead of Syria will even increase the IQ further - this has also been discussed differently by John Derbyshire. BTW: This brain-drain would depress Syria’s IQ from 83 down to 79.6; so refugees are a huge problem for the source countries, but the effect on Germany's IQ is tiny, even assuming the refugees are really this intelligent.)
This shows that the current batch of immigrants cannot do much in terms of decreasing the average IQ in Germany either. It may do something, but it cannot be a large influence.
Quick, progressive science bloggers and other impartial media: Cut these facts out and blow them out of proportion without ever mentioning the context! Do not read on!
Therefore, the IQ decline is almost entirely due to the dysgenic IQ-decline in Germany and the regression of the previous generation’s immigrant’s children toward the racial mean. Without understanding “regression toward the mean” one cannot understand the dangers of immigration. The current immigration will accelerate the decay further only in the next generation. The dominant factor is the different birth rates of the sub-populations that are already inside the borders. It is unstoppable even if we were to stop immigration now.
Many Germans flee to Eastern Europe, countries such as Hungary, the only EU country democratic enough to ask its citizen whether they desire unlimited mass immigration; the referendum resulted in 92% saying “No Way!” Does the common population understand “regression toward the mean” better than the intellectuals in power? Well, such kind of knowledge is inherent in our evolved decision strategies. So,
Let The Donald Trump!
(BTW: Information about 'Regression Toward The Mean', for example on Wikipedia, is usually politically correct and thus quite misleading. Even John Derbyshire's explanation does not stress the causal genetic aspects. Genes are re-shuffled in the next generation. This effect swamps the slight improvement due to the selection of high IQ immigrants. If miscegenation is involved, such leads to depression to even below the mean (even with "hybrid vigor" in the second generation)!