For as long as television and other weather forecasting, computer model forecasts (and before that, cyclical projections like in the Farmer's Almanac) have shown a single - deterministic - solution. Those forecasts are destined to be wrong, with the only question being by how much.
A different approach is taking hold where the emphasis is not just on a forecast, but on the degree of uncertainty in that forecast. You know, statistics.
December 4, 2013 from 7- 8 PM, Greg Fishel will be at the James B. Hunt, Jr. Library on N.C. State University's Centennial Campus to discuss how talking about uncertainty will help in delivering a better forecast.
The Changing Climate of Weather Prognostication: The Irony of Uncertainty Leading to Better Forecasts - Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute
- PHYSICAL SCIENCES
- EARTH SCIENCES
- LIFE SCIENCES
- SOCIAL SCIENCES
Subscribe to the newsletter
Stay in touch with the scientific world!
Know Science And Want To Write?
- Suggestion: The EM Drive Is Getting The Appropriate Level Of Attention From The Science Community
- Animal Sex Is Spicier Than We Thought
- Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise This Century? That's Not A Consensus
- Bang! Meet The Highest-Energy Hadron Collision Ever Imaged!
- For Now We See Through A Brewing Class, Darkly
- Bees: Activists Remain Silent While This Pollinator Killer Decimates Millions
- What If We Can 'Pre-Diagnose' Autism In Babies?
- "Hi ThorFreely moving mirrors, allowed to accelerate, will see the photon energy red-shifted, asymptoting..."
- "Comment threads do get confusing after a while. I didn't see Josh criticizing you but then I have..."
- "My apologies. It is not so easy to tell who is replying to who in the comments section. This happens..."
- "Please don't mind your own business. I welcome comments, and try to address all of them. People..."
- "Dr. BloomNot sure what prompted all these attacks since I have always been thankful for your articles..."
- Childhood cancer cells drain immune system's batteries
- Genetic tug of war in the brain influences behavior
- New method to predict the amount of nicotine emitted from e-cigarettes
- How bees naturally vaccinate their babies
- Mild hypothermia in deceased organ donors improves organ function in kidney transplant