For as long as television and other weather forecasting, computer model forecasts (and before that, cyclical projections like in the Farmer's Almanac) have shown a single - deterministic - solution. Those forecasts are destined to be wrong, with the only question being by how much.

A different approach is taking hold where the emphasis is not just on a forecast, but on the degree of uncertainty in that forecast. You know, statistics.



December 4, 2013 from 7- 8 PM, Greg Fishel will be at the James B. Hunt, Jr. Library on N.C. State University's Centennial Campus to discuss how talking about uncertainty will help in delivering a better forecast.

The Changing Climate of Weather Prognostication: The Irony of Uncertainty Leading to Better Forecasts - Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute