A few decades ago there were claims we'd fight wars over dwindling coal supplies and 20 years there were models claiming the "virtual" water cost of products like coffee would become such a problem there'd be wars over water.

Those both got a lot of media traction from sympathetic journalists even if the science was lacking. A new paper uses computer simulations to allege a new reason - climate change.

Most Americans only learned of Somalia after the 1992 entrance by US troops, which was done due to ongoing clan warfare, a coup, and an ill-fated conflict with Ethiopia in the 1970s. Since then. Somalia has often been first on the Failed States Index. That makes it an easy correlation for climate change because the curve of climate change and violence can match. The problem is that the price of steel also matches the curve of violence in Somalia. Should we blame the price of steel for violence there? No, but anything going up can be correlated to violence in Somalia when you know that violence in Somalia has gone up. 

The only time Somalia has not been beset by violence since records began being kept was when the British and Italians controlled it. But that colonialism, particularly the favoritism the Italians showed in who would get the best jobs, was once blamed for the modern conflict. Then it was autocratic socialism and the corruption that brings. The new paper says it is climate change. 

It seems a bit much to blame drought caused by climate change for the rise of Muslim terrorist groups when it could be argued that Muslim groups have also been the most stabilizing groups in the country in the last 40 years. They are not exploiting food insecurity now any more than anyone has in the past. Including plenty of warlords born and raised there.