Trump has had a lot of criticism after the summit, with many saying he conceded too much to Kim. I don’t think he did at all myself. The main thing he gave him was a meeting with him, and a couple of days of his time. And he built trust. He thinks that’s important. Previous presidents didn’t think it was important, they proceeded on a basis of distrust. He is trying something new.

The US and Korean flags flying together set the scene for the summit in a striking way - we were looking at those flags for minutes on end waiting for the leaders to enter from either side to shake hands. It had been a bit of a question before the summit - would they fly the Korean flags and so give them legitimacy - well - yes they did. This is a necessary part of that trust and bridge building. Imagine how different it would have felt if they had only flown US flags!

(Click to watch on YouTube)

NO IT WAS NOT A BIG ONE WAY CONCESSION TO STOP THE ANNUAL FOAL EAGLE EXERCISES

Many of the journalists are saying he made a big concession by saying he would stop military exercises. Actually, he did not. Ordinary exercises such as soldiers do anywhere in order to stay alert, be prepared for many different eventualities, etc, they will continue.

What he stopped are the annual Foal Eagle exercises. Huge expensive large scale operations. Involving thousands of South Korean troops and US troops and also nuclear capable bombers flown all the way from Guam. The last of those exercises was in April when they did a scaled down exercise which was also postponed to not overlap with the Winter Olympics. US, South Korea Kick Off Annual Military Drill Without US ‘Strategic Assets’

There are normally exercises in autumn as well: What are the US-South Korea war games?.

The next exercise isn’t until autumn, and the next one after that, the big spring exercise, not until ten months from now. He has said he has stopped them conditional on Kim showing clear progress towards denuclearization. If by the autumn he does not show that he is doing this, then the US just resumes the exercises and it doesn’t even skip a single exercise. Or if not then, then they resume next spring and have just skipped a single exercise in the autumn.

Meanwhile, remember, that North Korea has voluntarily stopped all missile tests. This is far more significant than stopping the nuclear tests. It did six nuclear tests - and India did only six nuclear tests too. That may be all it needs to be able to build the nuclear weapons it wants to make. So it destroying the nuclear weapons test site is probably a largely symbolic gesture given that it had finished its program already. Also the mountain was suffering from “sick mountain syndrome” which has affected test sites in Russia, so they would have had to drill a new tunnel, probably, anyway for another test.

So that’s not that significant.

NORTH KOREA’S HALTING OF MISSILE TESTS IS HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT

But stopping missile tests is highly significant. NK stopped just short of the point where it could hit the US with a nuclear weapon. Although it advertised its weapon as able to hit the US, actually that was hype.

It was actually probably a light mock missile that could never have carried the type of nuclear weapon they could have developed by now, which anyway may or may not be light enough to be carried on a missile. We don’t know for sure if they miniaturized their bomb. Experts thought that might have required another year of work.

Whether or not, they had not yet got to the point where they could send a nuclear weapon to the US.

Also, they had not yet proved successful re-entry of their ICBM’s. Their rockets probably disintegrated on re-entry. They probably needed to do a few more tests to have an ICBM that could go as far as the US and also carry a nuclear bomb and survive re-entry. For details see my: North Korean - Likely Used Light Mock Warhead To Fly Further&Not About To Invade South Korea Or US Invade NK

So, NK suspending its missile tests for the whole of this year is very significant to the US. And the US military of course will be well aware of these points.

Not only that. He is going to destroy their missile engine test site. This is a major thing to do. It’s not easy to test missile engines. And the US know about it from satellite photos - they can’t hide it easily either because missile engines when tested are of course very hot and produce masses of hot exhausts.

So, Trump already has a major concession from Kim coming in, complete suspension of all missile tests, also of nuclear bomb tests (largely symbolic), destruction of his nuclear bomb test site (he didn’t let in international inspectors but that may have been due to his reaction to John Bolton’s speech, as that was at the same time, originally he was going to let them in). And he has also said he will destroy the missile engine test site.

This suspension of missile tests continues for as long as the peace process continues - or for ever, if he denuclearizes completely.

STOPPING WAR GAMES IS MORE OF AN INCENTIVE THAN A CONCESSION

Meanwhile he has made what seems a major concession to stop the war games. But it is actually more of a major incentive to Kim to continue with denuclearization, it is also a way of building trust with him, and yet it makes no difference at all to the US until the autumn, plenty of time for Kim to show substantial progress in denuclearization.

I think it is very clever of him. And I’m sure he would have run that at least past his generals before going into the talks. I think his generals have probably known about the proposal for weeks.

As to how Kim destroys the nuclear weapons, that all has to be worked out. It is a very long complex process. Scientifically it has to take several years, probably at least 10, to dismantle all nuclear weapons capabilities. It would take the work of large numbers of scientists and engineers to do it.

But he can make them non operational and his missiles mothballed or destroyed in a year or two. He has several months to the next war games in which to make significant progress. If not the US would just resume them, without even a break.

This is a proposal worked out by a couple of experts, Carlin, a former analyst for the CIA and the State Department widely regarded as one of the top experts on North Korea in the world, and Hecker, former director of the Los Alamos Laboratory for over a decade, worked out independently, not a plan agreed on by anyone but it gives an idea of what is involved.

It halts just about everything in the first year. Roll back in years 2–5 , declare and reduce nuclear weapons, join the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) agree not to export any of the sensitive technology. And finally, in years 6 to 10, redirect to civilian programs and eliminate all the missiles, sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBC) (agree never to test nuclear weapons), with the whole thing finished in a decade.

Notice how they make sure that all the nuclear and missile scientists who were involved in the North Korean program are fully employed throughout, with no incentive to start up anything clandestine or to emigrate with their know-how to another country, instead they are fully involved in the complex and interesting technical job of denuclearization. If you want to do it properly you probably do need to take a fair while over it.

But not only that, they have this suggestion of a joint North / South Korea space and civilian nuclear program that starts at the end, once all the nuclear weapons and missiles are gone. That way the nuclear and missile scientists have secure permanent jobs at the end of the program once the denuclearization is complete.

But you do still have dramatic gestures and not just that, major reductions in capability, in the first year. For more details and discussion, especially focused on the idea of a combined civilian space program at the end - see my

• Experts Suggest Trump Kim Summit Agreement Could Include Combined Civilian Space And Nuclear Program For Both Koreas

TRUMP - MOON - AND KIM - AS THE RIGHT PEOPLE AT THE RIGHT TIME

My post here is quite admiring of Trump - I think he was the right person for the right job here. He got the tone just right. He was statesmanlike, respectful where needed. I’d never have guessed that the reality show host and the candidate for the US election could have carried this off.

Please be aware I am not at all a Trump fan. I think he made the wrong decisions for the Paris Agreement, for the Iran deal, his immigration bills, the Mexican wall, his moving of the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, his refusal to meet the Russians for resumption of the START negotiations on nuclear disarmament and renewal of them, on many topics I think he has made a series of very bad decisions myself. The only other point I agree with about the US administration is their NASA policy visa vi the Moon :).

But in this particular case he seems to be the right person at the right time in the right place. Along with Moon of South Korea and Kim of NK.

Replace any of those three by their predecessors and it could not have been done.

TRUMP AS THE SHOWMAN - NOT AS UNPREPARED, IMPROMPTU ETC AS HE MADE IT OUT TO BE

You need to realize that Trump is a showman and he gives the impression of thinking on his feet and being a freewheeling person who makes up things like that on the spot. But probably he decided this long before and he would of course have run it past Pompeo and his generals.

Pompeo hinted they had several things for the two leaders to bring up - a week or two before the summit, to give the leaders them things in hand to announce on the day. This might have been one of them. Kim agreeing to demolish his missile engine testing site probably another. If so they may have decided both of those a week or more before the summit.

It’s the same also with his tweet about sizing Kim up in the first minute. No way was he going to walk out after being with Kim for one minute. But suggesting he might helped drive up audience interest while building on a common myth about what people who are “good at deals” can do. Perhaps sometimes he gets a good impression of what someone is like in one minute. But it can’t be 100% and he probably often finds that impression is changed later on.

It is clear they did get on well together, from their body language - much more relaxed later in the day, quite serious and tense at the start. But he would never have walked out based on a first impression. That was just showmanship.

He also said he did no preparation. But in another statement he said he had 15 boxes to read through on the flight out. And it is clear that actually a huge amount of work went into preparation. Right down to small details.

THOUGHT THAT WENT INTO THE MEETING

The meeting showed signs of an enormous amount of thought gone into it. Even down to the menu, a combination of American and North Korean food. Probably not the easiest of cuisines to mix.

This is the video that Trump made for Kim which he showed to them on their iPads at the start of the negotiations - and which he also showed at the start of his press conference. He got some stick from it for it’s propaganda style, but seems to have got the tone just right for them - he said anyway that they were all sharing it on their iPads and enjoying it at the start of the discussions.

This sort of thing requires a fair bit of work to do:

(Click to watch on YouTube)

I actually rather liked it :).

FULL TEXT OF THE AGREEMENT

President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) held a first, historic summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018.

President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un conducted a comprehensive, in-depth, and sincere exchange of opinions on the issues related to the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations and the building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. President Trump committed to provide security guarantees to the DPRK, and Chairman Kim Jong Un reaffirmed his firm and unwavering commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Convinced that the establishment of new U.S.-DPRK relations will contribute to the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula and of the world, and recognizing that mutual confidence building can promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un state the following:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work towards complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

Having acknowledged that the U.S.-DPRK summit - the first in history - was an epochal event of great significance and overcoming decades of tensions and hostilities between the two countries and for the opening of a new future, President Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un commit to implement the stipulations in this joint statement fully and expeditiously.

The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations led by the U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the U.S.-DPRK summit.

President Donald J. Trump of the United States of America and Chairman Kim Jong Un of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have committed to cooperate for the development of new U.S.-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity, and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.

COMPLETE DENUCLEARIZATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA

Note that it talks about complete denuclearization of the entire peninsula rather than just North Korea.

A natural way to interpret that is that it would establish a nuclear free zone, like the many others there are already in the world, including the entire peninsula.

Map by the United Office of Disarmament Affairs, full resolution and more details here.

However that’s something of a challenge in the Korean situation, and an easier approach might be a nuclear weapons free zone treaty that is signed initially by the two Koreas and whatever other states are willing to join it right away such as Japan, perhaps. It would be a standard UN treaty open ended for other states to join as time progresses, so the US would not have to join it right away or at all, same also for Japan if they don’t want to join it, but it would still have the assurances that the two Koreas need.

North Korea would reaffirm its commitment to become a nuclear weapon state but would take a while to comply fully with its requirements in the treaty, as is only realistic in the circumstances. So they could start that right away. The US could still maintain its umbrella of deterrence even with a nuclear weapon free zone. It would come into play as soon as North Korea ceases to comply with the treaty.

Their third and preferred option that starts with just SK and NK and optionally perhaps Japan and Mongolia as parties to the treaty would have the advantage that ROK (South Korea) has to commit to not letting the US station nuclear weapons in South Korea

"This option would have the additional advantage to the DPRK in that the ROK would be legally bound not to permit the US or any nuclear power to store nuclear weapons in its territory.  The US would be legally bound not to store nuclear weapons on the peninsula.  Finally, the legal obligations of the DPRK and the ROK would be the same including the inspection procedures after the DPRK has satisfied the other parties that it has met is obligation to de-nuclearization."

It is the best that's possible short of complete worldwide denuclearization as the US can always fly in bombers with nuclear weapons from anywhere, or send in subs with nuclear weapons in the sea in a war situation. There is no way indeed to know if their ships carry nuclear weapons or not unless they permit inspection. The authors favoured this (their third option) as the one that is most likely to be acceptable to both NK and the US of their ideas.

For details of how it could work, and some alternatives such as a treaty with the US, see this special report by experts from the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability

• A KOREAN NUCLEAR WEAPONS-FREE ZONE TREATY AND NUCLEAR EXTENDED DETERRENCE: OPTIONS FOR DENUCLEARIZING THE KOREAN PENINSULA

There are various other options suggested there, but this seems the easiest to achieve, while still being likely to be strong enough to be acceptable to North Korea.

HOW IT WAS REPORTED IN NORTH KOREA

Naturally enough North Korea have splashed pictures over the front page of their state controlled paper. For many Koreans this will be the first time they have seen a photograph of the president of the US. The paper has the full text of the declaration too.

The North Korean version of the summit declaration is near bottom left of that page complete with signatures. I got the photos from this tweet.

Sadly don’t have English translations of the stories. But there are some translations of parts of it given in the report in the Guardian:

Trump, KCNA said, “appreciated that an atmosphere of peace and stability was created on the Korean peninsula and in the region, although distressed with the extreme danger of armed clash only a few months ago, thanks to the proactive peace-loving measures taken by the respected Supreme Leader from the outset of this year”.

…

“Singapore, the country of the epoch-making meeting much awaited by the whole world, was awash with thousands of domestic and foreign journalists and a large crowd of masses to see this day’s moment which will remain long in history,” it said.

…
“Kim Jong-un invited Trump to visit Pyongyang at a convenient time and Trump invited Kim Jong-un to visit the US.

“The two top leaders gladly accepted each other’s invitation, convinced that it would serve as another important occasion for improved DPRK-US relations,”

Kim Jong-un hailed victor in 'meeting of century' by North Korean media

We also now have the 42 minute video aired on their state media of the summit. It's in Korean. You can show the auto translation via Settings, switch on subtitles and then switch on auto translate and select English - but it's rather hit and miss for such different languages as Korean and English.