Health researchers predict that the transmission of dengue could actually decrease in a warmer climate, countering previous apocalyptic cocktail projections which included that the lethal virus would spread more easily.
Hundreds of millions of people are already infected with dengue each year, with some children dying in severe cases, so increasing a significant global health problem is an alarming concern. The model instead finds that a warmer climate would mean the ecologically useless mosquitoes that carry Dengue (and also Zika) would die off in the drier sections of the wet tropics of northeast Australia.
"While climate change generally poses a major threat to humanity, it also may reduce the incidence of dengue in some areas," said Co-lead researcher Associate Professor David Harley from The Australian National University (ANU), an epidemiology scholar. "There is significant concern in countries on the margin of the tropical areas where dengue is mainly found, that with global warming dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika will encroach and become common. Previous projections have suggested that climate change will increase transmission of mosquito-borne diseases globally. "Our work, using a mathematical model based on Queensland conditions, suggests that dengue transmission might decrease with greater warming."
Clearly that scenario could simply be changed to other regions, for example if areas that are cooler become more tropical, so no one is advocating for living in a greenhouse.