New surveys show about one out of every three people began gardening in 2020 because they were home more due to SARS-CoV-2 restrictions and worries. Many also put in new grass lawns and did outdoor renovations, such as installing new plant beds and other landscaping.
The gardening industry would be smart not to add new staff based on 2020 and 2021. A lot of factors point to warning signs for the new business. Inflation is at 1970s levels, which means no cheap home equity or refinancing to fund makeovers. That, plus politicians worried about losing their jobs demanding a $15 minimum wage, will mean those caught in the middle who drove most gardening purchases during the pandemic will be harmed in purchasing power the most as well.
And for many it was just a pandemic holiday. Nearly half of respondents said they didn’t plan to garden in the future, even if they had in 2020. Only one out of 10 said they gardened in 2020 and planned to keep it up going forward. The only bright spot is that 13 percent of millennials and younger said they planned to keep doing it.
But, like the Depression generation, the political and economic effects of government policy may lead to mass cultural changes. Because of labor cost issues that shot up when people were paid to stay home, supply chain issues became common, and now around 14 percent of participants said they planned to garden in the future because they were concerned about food shortages. As supply chain issues and high labor costs continue to cause problems, those empty grocery shelves may not be full to their pre-pandemic level anytime soon.
The problem for them is that fertilizer and plants aren’t immune from inflation and are rising as well.
“Plants are not really a necessity, but if I’m thinking about building a bunker in the backyard, I’m buying seeds,” said Professor Benjamin Campbell, lead author from the University of Georgia. “If I go and buy a tomato plant, I have to keep it alive. If I have a seed, I just leave it in the bag until I need it.”
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