A new paper says the way to lower your risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes is not losing weight and exercising more, but sleeping 7 hours and 18 minutes every night.

You can't multiply that by seven days and catch up by sleeping more on the weekend and it also means if you just sleep less, you are out of luck. That is why like all epidemiological correlation, this is only EXPLORATORY. Science has not confirmed this and the correlation arrows could easily go the other way; insulin misfires may make you sleep less.

Estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) is used as a surrogate for insulin resistance. A lower eGDR (e.g. under 6–7 mg/kg/min) on a population level is linked to greater risk of insulin resistance, which is then linked to greater risk of acquiring type 2 diabetes. For this paper, the authors consulted publicly available results in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2009 and 2023: 10,817 people who took the survey reported weekend sleep duration. Weekend catch-up sleep was categorised as none; up to 1 hour; 1 to 2; and more than 2, while eGDR was estimated using a formula involving measured waist circumference, fasting blood glucose, and blood pressure.

The average eGDR among participants was 8.23, and on weekdays reported sleeping an average of 7 hours and 30 minutes. About 48 percent reported sleeping an average of 8 hours during the weekend. The results showed an inverted U-shaped curve between sleep duration and eGDR. The best result was 7 hours and 18 minutes of sleep.


Adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, marital status, education level, PIR, BMI, drink, and smoke. BMI, body mass index; eGDR, estimated glucose disposal rate; PIR, family income-to-poverty ratio.

Below this threshold, getting more nightly sleep was associated with higher eGDR; above it, more nightly sleep was associated with a lower eGDR, particularly among women and those between the ages of 40 and 59.

If none of this makes sense, it is no shock. Lose weight if you are heavy and exercise more and you will lower your risk of all co-morbidities, and probably sleep better as well.

Citation: Fan Z, Wei R, Chen T, Yan X, Yin S, Cao Y, et al. Association of weekday sleep duration and estimated glucose disposal rate: the role of weekend catch-up sleep. BMJ Open Diabetes Research&Care. 2026;14:e005692. https://drc.bmj.com/content/14/2/e005692