This may help with this and other fake asteroid news. It's a no hazard asteroid. There is no NASA warning at all. They have already removed 88 "no hazard" asteroids from their table so far this year.It's 11 million to one against, and it's like rolling 9 or 10 dice and getting a six every time.
An object this size hits only every 94,000 years. They search for them so that they can warn us if they are going to hit. With a warning then we can either deflect it or evacuate the impact zone. There is no warning for this one.
A real warning would be given by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, the International Astronomical Union and the Minor Planet Center. It would also run on the main TV news for the day. After all they run news about hurricanes as the main news so of course they would for a major asteroid if it could harm people.
The ones in the table are ones we shouldn't be scared of because we are following them and know all about them.
First, it can't change its direction (or only minutely e.g. due to pressure of its emitted heat radiation as it spins).
What happens is that they don't know its orbit well. There is a very remote chance it could hit, but they would know well before and warn everyone affected. They remove dozens of “No Hazard” asteroids like this from the table every year. Since 2002, they have already removed well over 2000 of them and there is no reason at all for the public to get scared of this one.
They have already removed 83 “No hazard” objects from the table for 2019, with 25 left to remove.
For instance in the last four years the numbers removed are:
2016: 125, 2017: 151, 2018: 141, 2019: 83 (so far).
The sensationalist press just pick one at random from time to time for no apparent reason and scare everyone about it. Not based on any warning from NASA.
This is another article I'm writing to support people we help in the Facebook Doomsday Debunked group, that find us because they get scared, sometimes to the point of suicide, by such stories. Do share this with your friends if you find it useful, as they may be panicking too.
This is my new asteroid table, which may help scared people.
That's just a screen shot. You can check the new page here yourself
- NASA Near Earth Asteroids and Comets Table - As words instead of techy numbers
It is using the same data as the more geeky NASA Sentry table which my new page accesses using their published Sentry API. I just present it in a way that is more friendly for less geeky readers - this is what it says if you know how to read it.
I have also taken the opportunity to do a unified search for the Selected object that shows you whether an object is in the table, or removed, and if it is neither of those, provides a link you can use to look for it elsewhere, and other details.
I've also added details of how many dice you’d need to throw and get them all as sixes to be equivalent to this happening. I find this works well when explaining the table to non techy scared people.
You can read it here: 2007 FT3 and here is a screenshot of my details for this object:
An asteroid of this size is too small to have any global effects and most likely we wait 94,000 years before such an impact. If we know in advance that something of this size is going to hit, we need to evacuate the impact zone, and the firestorm radius and warn people whose windows would get broken within the air blast radius.
The comparisons with atomic bombs are silly. First, they are not radioactive, and cause no radioactivity.
Also they are not targeted at cities. They hit at random, most likely in a remote desert or in the middle of the Pacific.
Also if they are being tracked ,that means that we know about them in advance and can evacuate the impact zone. And they are really rare.
If the Egyptians had build an asteroid detection telescope back at the time of the Great Pyramid some alternative history early industrial revolution - then it would still be waiting for its first "city killer" asteroid.
- Did you know, NASA have NEVER issued any ASTEROID ALERT - most likely future warning: Tiny Asteroid to Splosh Harmlessly in Pacific Ocean
At this size the effects are regional, not global. But a large area would need to be evacuated around the impact zone, or if it hit the sea, coastal areas would be evacuated for the tsunami (though it doesn’t come as far inland as an earthquake tsunami of the same height). It would not cause a megatsunami unless it hit very close to land.
See details in comment.
- Why you don’t need to be scared of asteroids - far less scary than lightning by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
- My answer to How vulnerable are we to a catastrophic asteroid impact? Are there people whose job is to watch for them?
- What is the probability of the Earth being hit devastatingly by a large comet or asteroid?
- Some of the telescopes looking out for asteroids every single day
SEVEN TIPS FOR DEALING WITH DOOMSDAY FEARS
If you are scared: Seven tips for dealing with doomsday fears which also talks about health professionals and how they can help.
If in the middle of a panic attack, see
- Breathe in and out slowly and deeply to calm a panic attack by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
- Tips from CBT - might help some of you to deal with doomsday anxieties
- STOPP skill
USEFUL LINKS TO BOOKMARK
- Search Doomsday Debunked (Facebook)
- Search Debunking Doomsday
- List of debunks
- Search Quora for articles by 'robert walker' (insert whoever you want to search for)
- Search Sites rated Very High for Factual
- Search Doomsday Debunked Wiki
Tip, bookmark those links to search for debunks more easily. Here is a screenshot of my bookmarks
FACEBOOK SUPPORT GROUP
Facebook group Doomsday Debunked has been set up to help anyone who is scared by these fake doomsdays.
IF YOU NEED HELP
Do message me on Quora or PM me on Facebook if you need help.
There are many others in the group who are available to support scared people via PM and who can also debunk fake Doomsday “news” for you if you get scared of a story and are not sure if it is true. See our debunkers list
If you are suicidal don’t forget there’s always help a phone call away with the List of suicide crisis lines - Wikipedia