Despite time is a scarce resource for me these days, and my "working time balance" shows deep red, I am presently spending some of it to investigate a very interesting statistical effect of general nature, although specially connected to the issue of discovery thresholds in particle physics.

I am triggered by the recent eported observation of a new particle, which has been claimed at a significance corresponding to the coveted 5 standard deviations after a previous evidence had been extracted from 40% less data at 3.8 standard deviations. The matter has left me slightly dubious about the precision of the latter claim.

Now, before I state the problem, let me explain in short how significance is calculated in these kinds of new particle searches.

I am currently running an experiment, with multiple aims. I have created a new blog in wordpress, where I intend to publish a translation to modern Greek of selected articles that I have written in the past. The first attempt is already there (work is in progress, though, given my multiple occupations these days). In the blog I also offer to translate older posts on demand.

"If they would only do as he did and publish posthumously, we should all be saved a lot of trouble".

[Maurice Kendall, famous British statistician, talking of Bayesians (statisticians who employ Bayes' theorem and Bayes' approach to statistical inference, particularly related to  the use of "prior beliefs") and of Bayes himself, whose groundbreaking work was only published after his death]

It is unfortunate that whenever I have personal stuff to post as a blog here I have nothing else to choose as a tag than the uninformative "random thoughts"... I wish the posting interface in our beautiful site had a wider selection of tags, including ones such as "stuff that does not interest anybody but selected few", or "my own darn business". But perfection is not of this world, that is until Hank decides to work on his seventh day as well.