The national ignition facility has reported at a press conference that they have gotten more energy out of a controlled thermonuclear reaction than was put in.  We’ve gotten out more energy from thermonuclear fusion before, using bombs.  The issue is getting the energy out in a way that is useful.  This relates to Elon Musk in that he is, like fusion power, one who will over promise but under perform.  The key difference that the researchers would tell you is that the media over promises and hypes up their work.  Meanwhile Elon Musk will overpromise on technology, free speech, space travel, tunnels, solar roofs, stock prices, and everything else.  These are things his “Twitter files” PR agents like Matt Taibbi, Bari Weiss, and other now former journalist come propagandists don’t talk about. 
 
 It has been said, famously, that journalism is publishing what the rich and powerful do not want published.  What follows is an act of journalism. 

Don’t Get Too Excited About Fusion Power.

We are right now when it comes to fusion power where earlier species of human were at with fire about a million years ago.  We know how to harness it destructively.  We know how to make sparks.  We don’t yet have anything like mastery of fusion.  The biggest source of fusion power we have is the Sun.  The Sun is fusion powered and if you want to cheaply, easily harness it buy solar panels.  If we as a species want to someday harness more of it we would build a Dyson Swarm.  A constellation of satellites that would reflect sunlight to where it can be used to generate electricity that would be transmitted to Earth via microwaves.  These things are projects for the next 50-100 or even 1000 years but if we start now, we can make a difference. 
 
 The National Ignition Facility at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory sparked a moment of fusion power this year. Hydrogen encased in diamond was heated with lasers.  More thermal energy came out than the energy that went in.  At least that is the preliminary result.

Let me be clear.  I take nothing away from the great scientists who made this happen.  It is a real achievement on par with figuring out how to make sparks, that will someday lead to fire. It is the first real proof that we can make this kind of fire, and get out more than we put in, without a nuclear fission bomb to get it started.

The real long-term story is the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. It is a chamber that uses magnetic confinement to keep the fusion plasma under pressure.  In principle such a reactor can be fed hydrogen continuously and produce power continuously.  When and if we master this we will have really reached the stage of making a nuclear campfire that won’t mutate your DNA even if you sat unshielded near it.  These are solutions for the long-now for 100 to 1000 years or more.
 
 The real story of nuclear power, for the short-now 10-50 years, is more modern fission reactors.
 
 In fact, I’d wager that something like the process used by the INF will result in clean, fission free, nuclear weapons before they’d result in a sustained reaction around which a power plant can be built. That may sound crazy, but this is something that would be of interest.  A 100 MT nuke with no radioactive fallout would be terrifying and perhaps useful.   Especially if it can be made small.

Whats Musk Got To Do With It?

Nothing directly but his way of doing business is the opposite of science and reason.  Even science announced via press conference is far more careful.  He found success in one online business, Pay Pal.  Then he sold it and founded Space X. His practices got us back into space in a field where delays are totally accepted.  His approaches worked fine for that and for getting Tesla off the ground. 
 
 Now his foolery at Twitter is about to harm Tesla and Space X.  Tesla does good work trying to electrify transportation and logistics.  Space X and StarShip may someday be a big part of getting us mining asteroids, the Moon, or Mercury and producing the space-based solar power described above.   His socially inept, politically tone-deaf handling of Twitter is going to SINK ALL OF THAT.   The fact is Space X and Tesla are at all successful due to getting tax breaks and government contracts.  Elon Musk is as beholden to the US government as Jack Ma of Ali Baba is/was to the Peoples Republic of China. 

Elon Musk needs to check his ego. He needs to realize that a friendly House and Senate are crucial to his businesses existing.  This is especially the case when it comes to anything to do with NASA.  I have explained to my international colleagues that the Congress of the United States of America can vote to ban or forbid anything when it comes to government money.  Congress is the branch of our government which holds plenary power limited only a little by the constitution and a lack of unanimity. Space X can be put right out of business in so many ways if Musk manages to tick off enough of congress.  They could even force the sale of its IP to the government to ensure our access to space on national security grounds and never pay him another dime. 
 
 He may mostly offend the left now but, like how Democrats once defended TikTok, that can change. (VOX “Maybe Trump Was Right About TikTok”)

To those on the right who love Elon Musk now remember the mad king will not stop being mad once all those who currently offend him are gone.  He’ll just find someone new to be mad at.
 
 I leave you with a classic video breaking down Elon Musk record of over promising and underperforming by Thunderf00t. 

 
 Musk will likely not notice this blog.  If he did I’d ask this.  Take a week off and consider if your conduct the last month has helped your medium-term goals, has this helped how you wanted to impact humanity? 
 
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