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    The Quote of the Week: Harrison Prosper, Why We Want To Be Sure
    By Tommaso Dorigo | July 13th 2012 06:26 PM | 16 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
    About Tommaso

    I am an experimental particle physicist working with the CMS experiment at CERN. In my spare time I play chess, abuse the piano, and aim my dobson...

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    "Given that the search for the Higgs took some 45 years, tens of thousands of scientists and engineers, billions of dollars, not to mention numerous divorces, huge amounts of sleep deprivation, tens of thousands of bad airline meals, etc., etc., we want to be sure as is humanly possible that this is real."

    Harrison Prosper, Kirby W. Kemper Professor of Physics, Florida State University

    Comments

    Tommaso,

    the detectors at the LHC use triggers and only record a fraction of all the events.
    If we say that e.g. 10/fb of events have been analyzed, does that include the non-recorded events?
    Furthermore, the triggers will create a selection bias, how is that considered when subtracting the background
    e.g. in a search for new particles (since by definition we don't know what really happened in those non-recorded
    events)?

    dorigo
    Hi Wolfgang,

    triggers are very well understood. One can study their effect in a number of ways - by hardware emulation, by software simulation, by changing the cuts and studying the effects.
    When we talk about 10/fb this means 10/fb. What we do with that, either at trigger level or at advanced analysis stage, is to filter the events most signal-like. The fact that the trigger is online and is based in part (level 1) on hardware boards rather than software programs is only a detail; we estimate physical quantities with lower resolution at trigger level, so we need to be careful of the selections we apply there, that's all.

    In general, any cut you apply to a dataset creates a selection bias. Every such effect is of course always studied in detail. As I mentioned above, for a trigger e.g. selecting high-energy particles of some species there is at least one or two lower-energy ones selecting one every 100 or 1000 events with looser cuts: by studying the high-energy events in the looser sample one understands the effect of the trigger selection.

    Cheers
    T.
    The divorce statement is indeed very sad.
    I'm actually at my first Post Doc and I Ieft the University where I've done my Phd,
    since there was no possibility to get any type of position or even a "calcio-in-culo-contract" there.
    Me and my girlfrend are hundreds of km apart.
    It's so sad to realize how our 3 years relationship is getting eroded day after day.

    Hank
    It's the same in any high-intensity career - actors, musicians, anyone who wants to be the best at something will make personal sacrifices, there is no way for the discipline to adjust around both.  Einstein was divorced too.
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    UvaE
    It's the same in any high-intensity career - actors, musicians, anyone who wants to be the best at something will make personal sacrifices 
    Sorry to be a pain again, but I had to dig into this one too! 'Have to consider what the authors' noted: "Maybe people prone to unstable relationships are drawn to certain professions."
    From the Washington Post--numbers based on 2000 US Census:
    Dancers and choreographers registered the highest divorce rates (43.1 percent), followed by bartenders (38.4 percent) and massage therapists (38.2 percent). Also in the top 10 were casino workers, telephone operators, nurses and home health aides.
    Three types of engineers -- agricultural, sales and nuclear engineers -- were represented among the 10 occupations with the lowest divorce rates. Also reporting low marital breakup rates were optometrists (4 percent), clergy (5.6 percent) and podiatrists (6.8 percent).
    The numbers don't paint a complete picture. If a person had divorced and remarried by the time of the Census, they would be counted as married. So it could be the case that people in some occupations are just quicker to jump into the next marriage than others.
    The authors also point out that the data don't reveal whether it's the nature of the jobs that lead to divorce, or if people prone to unstable relationships are drawn to certain professions.




    Gerhard Adam
    Then again, it could just be that we simply aren't too careful in our concerns regarding long-term mates.  With a divorce rate around 40-50%, it would be hard to imagine that much "intensity" is to blame.  It's probably much closer to just poor choices and bad behaviors.
    UvaE
    With a divorce rate around 40-50%, it would be hard to imagine that much "intensity" is to blame.  It's probably much closer to just poor choices and bad behaviors. 
    There's no doubt that all sorts of other factors come in to play, but the divorce rate figure you toss out may be inflated, I suspect. It's hard to get a clear cut stat on the matter. Ditto for the percentage of gays and for people sexually abused as children. Since all those are emotionally stressful, if someone comes along saying that a large percentage of the population is affected, the figure will be repeated and not be questioned by the victims because it makes them feel better, knowing that they are not alone.


     
    Gerhard Adam
    ...but the divorce rate figure you toss out may be inflated, I suspect. It's hard to get a clear cut stat on the matter.
    Actually no it isn't.  Since it is a purely state legal matter, the numbers should be the most accurate available.  Other things you mention are all dependent on self-reporting.  Neither marriage nor divorce are, since they are a formally defined legal status.
    UvaE
    Actually no it isn't.  Since it is a purely state legal matter, the numbers should be the most accurate available.   
    On the surface, they should seem so. But divorce is something that can happen over the course of a life time and rates constantly change. If you consider only people of a very ripe age, the stats reveal a rate that is considerably below 40-50%. Of course one can argue that the rate for people nowadays is higher. But the 50% figure often thrown around is a projection because, even for younger couples, the rate is not as high as that. 


    Here's an example of a projection :

    According to Statistics Canada, about 38 per cent of all marriages taking place in 2004 will have ended in divorce by 2035.  

    It goes on to point out what I said about changing rates:
    The total divorce rate was down slightly from its peak of about 41 per cent in the mid 1980s, but slightly higher than the rate of about 37 per cent recorded in the mid 1990s. 
    The variation in regions is significant, so it's silly for couples to think of themselves threatened by overall average projections :
    Newfoundland and Labrador had the lowest rate of divorce at 21.6 per cent — while Quebec had the highest at 48.4 per cent. (if you dig under the surface of these numbers, as i did, they turn out to be projections too)
     As far the accurate numbers you referred to (these are what the projections are based on) here's what they look like:




    Gerhard Adam
    The question isn't about the RATE of divorces, but simply whether most marriages (or the percentage of them) that end in divorce.

    The only ones that need to count is the first marriage and whether or not it ends in divorce.  Quite specific.  Anything else adds no new information, since the divorce from an initial marriage has already occurred.  So, I'm not interested in the rate for this particular question.
    UvaE
    calcio-in-culo-contract  :) = Kick in the butt contract. 'Have never heard that Italian expression, but getting back to the serious issue, the distance can also be turned into a way of intensifying the relationship. 
    Non è vero?
    Peter Higgs himself, in a very interesting interview by a colleague, that I recommend to read (*), attributes his divorce (and subsequent lack of professional successes in his later career, by the way!) to his early success with the eponymous mechanism:

    "The other thing that I wanted to say, was that it probably did affect me in other
    ways: I think it certainly contributed to the break-up of my marriage, because I think my
    wife did not at the time quite appreciate what I succeeded in doing and how important it
    was to me. When I gave more priority to things which involved my career, like conferences
    and so on, rather than the interests of the family, the marriage went downhill, with
    the result that there was a period in which I didn't do very much at all"

    (*) http://www.lnf.infn.it/theory/delduca/higgsinterview.pdf

    Tommaso,

    what should one think about this question: physicswithoutideology.blogspot.com/2012/07/some-doubts-about-atlas-results-2011.html ?

    The best video about the Higgs discovery:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8xUd7Myeuk&feature=player_embedded

    :)

    Their other videos are good too.

    Tommaso, has a Higgs decay that does not conserve flavor, such as h -> tau + positron, been observed? Some people who would be very happy about it.

    dorigo
    No searches for that yet, Anon. Some time it will be done.
    Note, anyway, that a tau decay to a positron will produce the same signature, except
    for additional missing energy. I would not be surprised if such a signal were hard to
    disentangle from the regular H->tau tau one, which is however still not observable
    (CMS has almost SM sensitivity, next year we plan to see it).

    Cheers,
    T.