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    Piers Corbyn: There's a Mini Ice Age Coming
    By Hank Campbell | December 21st 2010 10:43 AM | 7 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
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    Oh no, not again.  When I was young the buzz was about the coming Ice Age - and it was common sense.  Since 90,000 out of every 100,000 years of human history have been Ice Ages and it's been 12,000 years since the last one, logically we have been overdue.

    But simple physics says that when you add more people and more pollution to a finite space things will get warmer so warming is a lot more likely than cooling.

    Not so, says a writer in the Daily Telegraph, who instead sides with meteorologist Piers Corbyn because Corbyn said it would not be a mild winter, contrary to the Met Office, which this decade began fashionably billing itself as Met Office: Weather and climate change.

    It's certainly not a mild winter in London so far, though you'd think after a few millenia Brits would learn how to deal with snow.   Corbyn is an astrophysicist by education, like James Hansen in the US, and claims to be accurate in his predictions 85% of the time.   Farmers, obviously, take accuracy over academics any day of the week so they are willing to suspend disbelief over effects in the future if it can save crops this year.

    How does he beat the Met Office?   Using the Sun, he says.    He sees what the Sun is doing now and then the last time it did something similar and makes a forecast.   Does it work?  In a limited sense, sure, I buy the Farmer's Almanac every year out of nostalgia and it is fairly accurate - as long as climate effects stay linear, it will continue to be.

    Oppressed Underdogs will also get popularity in the media, that is how newspapers get sold, but whether or not Corbyn is simply lucky is harder to determine than whether or not we will have an early spring.

    Comments

    rholley

    The silver Swan, who living had no Note,
    when Death approached, unlocked her silent throat.
    Leaning her breast upon the reedy shore,
    thus sang her first and last, and sang no more:
    "Farewell, all joys! O Death, come close mine eyes!
    "More Geese than Swans now live, more Fools than Wise."


    Orlando Gibbons, published 1612.
    Robert H. Olley / Quondam Physics Department / University of Reading / England
    Bonny Bonobo alias Brat
    Poignant poem Robert. Having once kept geese for 8 years, or rather having been kept by geese for 8 years, I couldn't help noticing that most people, including my husband, hate the aggressive, rather foolish noises that geese make. If it wasn't for those aggravating noises I imagine that many more domesticated geese would probably now exist throughout the world. So maybe the silver swan had the last laugh, but was it a silent laugh?
    My article about researchers identifying a potential blue green algae cause & L-Serine treatment for Lou Gehrig's ALS, MND, Parkinsons & Alzheimers is at http://www.science20.com/forums/medicine
    Is there a mini ice age coming? Is this because Arctic Ocean is melting and that ice is cooling down the water?
    According to this NASA graph the multiyear layer of ice is shrinking rapidly since 2005.
    http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/324873main_kwokfig4_full.jpg

    Has he been accurate 80% of the time?

    Hank
    He says he has.  Hard to say.  Are weather meteorologists on TV right 80% of the time?  Probably, and maybe the Farmer's Almanac.  I wouldn't bet the future on his belief that more pollution will not be bad for us so we should try to lessen it.
    Indeed, talk used to be not about Global Warming, but about the coming Ice Age. Partly it was due to ignorance - we knew about previous ice ages but hadn't fully recognized the earlier times, when the Earth's climate was also much warmer. But partly there was basis in truth. The industrial age, they said, was creating an abundance of dust particles in the atmosphere, and this would effectively reduce the Earth's albedo.

    I think the spring after April will surprise you ! It will be much hotter May ! I bet on that. Some interesting things in the sky will become :)