Western Europe, the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand now have birth rates that are relatively close to replacement, which means that the 'decline of the West', where developed nations birth control and abort themselves out of existence, isn't happening.

It's certainly a more optimistic demographic narrative of the future of the West than we usually get, where declining birth rates and population aging will reduce Europe and the US while Asian superpowers, such as China and India, see huge populations and economies to match. 

 Oxford Professor David Coleman and Associate Professor Stuart Basten say while the West and the English speaking world will have to accept some 'painful adjustments', the Population Implosion scenario is as wrong as the Population Bomb scenario of the 1960s was. Certainly Western economies have difficulties with demands for more government services and the rising costs of pension entitlement for its aging populations - both things that led Europe to recruit young immigrants to support its tax base, but countries are adapting by forcing later retirement ages and other measures.

The developed world has their own challenges and those have been understated, the authors argue; in some cases persistent substantial population growth, in others rapid fertility decline leading to severe levels of population aging. In many of these societies, political and social instability makes adjustment difficult. 

Western Europe has become 'more stable and sustainable than supposed' (with total fertility rates between 1.8-2.1). In countries such as the UK, robust birth rates have combined with record immigration so instead population growth has become a problem. By contrast, half the world's populations now live in countries where the birth rate is below replacement, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey and the southern half of India, says the paper. It suggests Brazil, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia may face decades of below replacement fertility, an experience already familiar to China. It says the birth rates may fall in many of these populations to a level lower than that in much of Europe and the USA, because of the slow pace of change of traditional patriarchal society and the sexual inequality that goes with it. That may lead to substantial population aging before the economy becomes mature enough to support its aging population.  

Coleman says, "Much has been written about the 'Death of the West', with its threatened demise reportedly due to the low level of reproduction in Western countries. We show that this so-called decline has been exaggerated and trends in European fertility have been misunderstood. With immigration, fertility rates have gone up in many European and English-speaking countries. India and China and other fast growing economies have their problems too. Fast rising populations in developing economies do not equate with future success as demographic changes are difficult to absorb if they happen too rapidly. Countries with mature social and political systems will find such transitions easier to bear."

Basten added, "Many commentators focus on China as the future global superpower - ever growing in economic and political stature. However, China risks falling into a low-fertility trap coupled with severe levels of population aging. Even when allowed two children, couples prefer one child, with my research showing that this attitude has been reinforced by the urban conditions that families are forced to adjust to and policies that are not family-friendly. Both East and West have their separate different challenges which may mean painful periods of adjustment for everyone concerned."

Published in Population Studies.