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    DNA, Probability And Fallacy
    By Cher Stewart | August 19th 2009 01:16 AM | 241 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
    About Cher

    "Fables should be taught as fables, myths as myths, and miracles as poetic fancies. To teach superstitions as truths is a most terrible thing. The...

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    Today, I was met by a science-debunker (laugh a little, you know you want to.) He didn't know that I work in the field of biotechnology, or that I am a scientist. I am often met with the, "you're too pretty to have a high IQ," mentality, so I tend to take the route of listening to the blather before I correct them. It makes their judgment of my level of intelligence seem so much more embarrassing. Cruel? Perhaps a little.

    He had heard through friends that I am an atheist (according to him, this is synonymous with devil worship, and he wished only to save me from an eternity in hell.) We proceeded to have a half-religious-half-philosophical conversation discussing the bible, stoicism and how misguided I am, but that's a story for another entry.

    Something he said to me really piqued my interest, as I could not figure out where he got the information from. In context, he was attempting to debunk not only our current evolutionary theory, but evolution in its entirety and the possibility of abiogenesis.

    Odds of a strand of DNA arranging itself in the right order to create life? 1 in 10^400,000. About the same as YOU winning the lottery EVERY DAY for 15 Billion consecutive years. Good luck.


    As a scientist, I could only stare blankly into the screen at a loss for words. Is this really what people believe? How can someone believe they know the odds that the molecules that make up DNA will form a DNA strand that creates a living organism?

    There are only four chemicals that make up the nucleotides of deoxyribonucleic acid, the chemical inside the nucleus of a cell that carries the genetic instructions for making living organisms. A DNA nucleotide is made of a molecule of sugar, a molecule of phosphoric acid, and a molecule called a base. The bases are the "letters" that spell out the genetic code. In DNA, the code letters are A, T, G, and C, which stand for the chemicals adenine, thymine, guanine, and cytosine, respectively. In base pairing, adenine always pairs with thymine, and guanine always pairs with cytosine. Each gene's code combines the four chemicals in various ways to spell out 3-letter "words" that specify which amino acid is needed at every step in making a protein. Every single living organism has DNA, and every single one is made up of A, T, G and C.  How these are arranged; and how many base pairs there are tell us what organism it is, and essentially becomes the blueprint of the organism, instructing the cells what to do. This blueprint is read by transcribing stretches of DNA into the related nucleic acid RNA.

    A - T and G - C form a non-covalent hydrogen bond. What does that mean? The double helix can be broken in half and rejoined with heat or force. When all the base pairs in a DNA double helix melt, the strands separate and exist in solution as two entirely independent molecules. If the chances of DNA functioning properly was so low, why is it that we can place a centi tube with a strand of isolated DNA along with a gene from another organism in a centrifuge, give it a spin and have an organism with functioning recombinant DNA? The free floating nucleotides bond on their own to form the double helix.

    The DNA between an egg and a sperm, in a human, has an estimated 91% chance of "getting it right", as it were, once fertilization occurs at arranging correctly to form another human. If you take into account genetic variation from sexual recombination, the number of possible combinations of DNA for the resulting offspring is astronomical. Our entire genome has upwards of 3.3 billion base pairs. If we consider that we have no way of knowing which base pairs will separate and which single strands will connect to which genes, the actual possible combinations is innumerable. If under the conditions in a zygote, the nucleotides bond around 91% of the time in a combination that is correct for a functioning human, the odds he has stated seem highly incorrect.

    We know that DNA copies itself within an organism, and we know that small mutations occur in
    each copy, which, in part, attributes to the variance among one species of organisms and the continual differences that increase exponentially from generation to generation. This is why a new organism doesn't form in utero, within our cells or any other DNA duplication process. It would seem that organisms either evolved over a substantial period of time from other organisms and/or molecules came together under certain conditions to begin the life of a new organism.

    What else do we know? We know that we have a record of about 1.4 million species of living organisms. In a famous study conducted in Panama, 19 trees were "fogged" with insecticide and the dead were collected as they fell through the canopy. In this study, nearly 1,200 species of beetles alone were collected. Of those, 80 percent were not known to science. While it may be dangerous to extrapolate numbers like these to other places, it gives at least a high estimate of the number of species that could exist on earth - that high estimate being around 100 million species. A low estimate is 2 million. The best estimate might be around 10 million. But even if that’s the case, it means we've only known about a small fraction of what is presently there.

    Many of the species that we're discovering live in areas that are not often studied. Take the sea floor for instance. Hydrothermal vents along the floor provide a type of chemical energy for bacteria. These bacteria use this energy like plants use the energy of the sun. They then form
    the base of a giant food web thousands of feet below the surface. It wasn't until recently have we been able to discover this new habitat. Now scientists believe there could be as many as a million species just on the ocean floor.

    If we take the best estimate of number of species living or in fossil form, we estimate there have been about 10 million species. 10 million species all with the same molecules making up their DNA. However, we have no idea how many possible species there are among the seemingly infinite number of genome lengths and base pair combinations. The Amoeba dubia has about 670 billion base pairs that make up its genome, and the smallest genome length discovered of a true organism is 490,885.

    The odds of a specific organism being formed under the conditions that these molecules come together is bleak; monumentally bleak. The odds of any species coming together from the infinite number of possible combinations and numbers of base pairs? Not calculable, but considering the current number of species, I would say that the odds are more than likely considerably better than what the science-debunker originally stated.

    The molecules have movement and a charge that that forms a double helix shape. Many people wind up thinking that this shape is clearly the work of a God, but if they studied magnetism, they would know that the recipe for a double helix is fairly simple. A strong magnetic field (created by the molecules), rotation (also created by the molecules) and matter (the molecules.) Since we can create the fluids for engineered recombinant DNA, one has to assume that at some point, this combination of fluids (or another suitable liquid) will be present on Earth on its own.

    With the millions of species that we have recorded, all with the same molecules forming them and knowing that these bonds between base pairs form without assistance of a conscious being it should be no quantum leap to the idea that DNA forms on its own, and that the molecules that make up DNA tend to fall in an order that creates life.

    Comments

    Gerhard Adam
    I think it's important to note that many complex processes are built upon "conserved" processes that have demonstrably worked before.  The mistake most people make when they quote probabilities, is that they presume that everything most come together in a single instance from a single set of materials, instead of recognizing that they are built up over time.

    It would be like arguing the probability of having the Wright Brothers build a 747.  
    heterotic
    That's exactly correct. We might as well argue the probability that you or I would even be conceived as of 1 million years ago! 1 in 42 x 10^403,149. Of course, that's a lower-limit calculation, because the chances of you or I being here are much lower due to death, pregnancy viability (1/5 chance of conception making it to full gestation) and the maternal lineage's egg viability.

    What bothers me most about arguing against evolutionary theories and abiogenesis using probabilities is the fact that they truly are incalculable. We have no idea what the minimum and maximum base pairs are for life, we have no idea how many combinations there could be of the base pairs and we have no idea which combinations of base pairs will result in life. We can only base our information off of known genomes. The sheer number of species we are aware of indicates that there has to be gargatuan possibilities of organisms.

    One cannot deny that DNA mutates, both randomly and to adapt to its environment, nor that mistakes are made in DNA copying, so I don't think it's plausible to deny that over an extended period of time that organisms can and do evolve into what is considered a new species.

    I tend to use the example of monozygotic twins and their exponentially increasing epigenetic differences as an example of how one copy of DNA can create two different organisms over time without reproduction of the organism. In my opinion, you can't deny evolution without denying biodiversity, DNA mutation and micro-evolution - all three of which are easily proven and obviously true. I just wonder if those who deny the truth in evolution on a grander scale that we cannot experience in our lifetime can't visualize the changes over millions and billions of years, or if they use the fact that since we cannot watch one organism become a new species in our lifetime as an excuse that it cannot be true.
    So, when we engineer our own organisms (veteran of early 80's bucket-biochem recombinant engineering here), are we at least hemi-demi-semi-urges? And when the full artificial construction de novo (now in the larval stages) gets going big time, especially if we are using novel bases undiscovered on earth, does that make us more than mere demi-urges, but gods, and able to say "bow down and worship us, oh believers that designing life from scratch is a qualification for godhood"?

    What would the fundies say about that?

    It'll be even more fun in (probably) less than a century when the physicists start budding off universes with high-energy toys.

    So, when we engineer our own organisms (veteran of early 80's bucket-biochem recombinant engineering here), are we at least hemi-demi-semi-urges? And when the full artificial construction de novo (now in the larval stages) gets going big time, especially if we are using novel bases undiscovered on earth, does that make us more than mere demi-urges, but gods, and able to say "bow down and worship us, oh believers that designing life from scratch is a qualification for godhood"?

    What would the fundies say about that?

    It'll be even more fun in (probably) less than a century when the physicists start budding off universes with high-energy toys.

    First off, please forgive me for not being able to figure out how to respond to your original post directly; I had to respond to your response!

    Secondly, I'm not a scientist, although I am pretty smart. I'm an actor. I have a BA in Theatre and an MFA in Acting. Also, I was a Hospital Corpsman and Field Combat Medical Specialist in the US Navy. But alas, not a scientist!

    I have read something similar to the quote you were given by the science debunker. I am not a sciene debunker, but as an artist (which scientists are too), I am a science skeptic. Do I doubt the screen that I see before me? No. Nor do I doubt the wireless keyboard on which I type. But I've had several experiences that lead me to believe, rather KNOW, that we are more than what we can measure with our senses and with our instruments. But I will focus on the science debunker.

    I too read something similar to what the debunker quoted. It comes from a book called "The Decline of Evolution." I cannot remember the author's name, nor can I find the book anywhere! I've done a Google search, a Bing search, and I've checked both Amazon and Barnes & Noble.coms. The book was published since 2001. As I recall, the author states that the chance for DNA to evolve into a viable lifeform is 1 in 10^2.256, but he is writing about the chance that atoms would become molecules, would become aminos, would become nucleotides, would create enzymes with a matching function, would create a replicating organism. In your 6th paragraph you write about giving Isolated DNA a spin in a centrifuge along with the genone from another organism, but you didn't discuss how either genome was built from atoms to molecules to DNA in the first place--you discussed only genones that were already formed. The author of "Decline" writes that enzymes and what affect, are, to my understanding, a two-sided recipe. A recipe to form the enzyme, which is the recipe to carry out another function, so the probability factor is doubled. Dont' forget, I'm not a scientist, just humor me and laugh a little if you want!

    The author of "Decline" continues by informing the reader that there are only 10 ^113 atoms in the universe. If there is a 10^2.256 probability of DNA starting from scratch (a single base pair) to create a viable organism, all the trials and errors excced the number of atoms in the universe by 2,143 orders of magnitude, and far exceed the amount of usable atoms available on Earth, which I've read elswhere is about 10^75.

    Okay, here's where I probably made a serious calculation error, but bear with me. I've also read elsewhere that the universe is about 450-500 quadrillion years old and the Earth and Sun are about 4.5 billion years old. Using the scientific function on my Windows calculator, I worked out 500 quadrillion years to be 1.7 x 10^24 seconds. If there are only 10^75 atoms on Earth, and most of them are locked up in inorganic minerals, how did everthing evolve within the lifespan of the universe, given the probability of starting a DNA strand from scratch-to-organism at 10^2,256? I know that you'll correct me if I'm wrong, but even if every atom constituting our planet were forming into evolving DNA strands every second, wouldn't the time taken exceed the span of the universe, let alone the age of our planet?

    The author of "Decline" also makes more mundane arguments. The first being that there are no transition-state lifeforms in the fossil record. He writes, "no Fishibians, no Amphiles, no Repammals," etcetera. One of his most compelling arguments is the case of Acheaopteryx, or the link between reptiles and birds. He makes the claim that the dino-bird was recently reclassified as a bird. He states that reptiles have air-sacs in their lungs and that birds have tubes. Archeaopteryx has tubes--no air-sacs and tubes, and no sac-tube hybrids--just tubes. He adds that modern bird fossils have also recently been discovered in the same bed as the dino-bird. Another argument he makes is that Neanderthal was reclassified as fully human. Other Neanderthal fossils have been discovered and show that they were taller on average than modern humans and had larger brains. The fossil that became the model for the evolutionary chart had severe osteoporosis. One other argument that the author makes is that Ramapithecus was based on a tooth and a skull fragment, not an entire skeleton. The fragment was found in strata 20 feel deeper than the tooth, and was two miles away. He also states that the tooth has recently been reclassified as belonging to a horse, and the skull fragment was that of an ape. (I may have the wrong stage detailed here, but it was one of the early hominids).

    One of the author's most simple yet compelling arguments is that aesthetic beauty exists where it is unobservable, unless someone goes looking for it, like in the creatures of the ocean's greater depths.

    I found the book to be well-written, but I find fault with the author using quotes from the Bible to back up his statements. Even though the quotes support his assertions, I think his arguments are compelling enough to stand on their own. The author concludes with a quote from Louis Pascal: "If you wager that God exists and you're right, you've won everything. If you wager on God on you're wrong, you've lost nothing. If you wager against God and you're right, you've won nothing. If you wager against God and you're wrong, you've lost everything. Wager on God."

    If you can find this book (I read it while serving 60 days in jail), I would be interested in knowing what you think about the author's assertions. Thanks for reading.

    Gerhard Adam
    The author of "Decline" continues by informing the reader that there are only 10 ^113 atoms in the universe. If there is a 10^2.256 probability of DNA starting from scratch (a single base pair) to create a viable organism, all the trials and errors excced the number of atoms in the universe by 2,143 orders of magnitude, and far exceed the amount of usable atoms available on Earth, which I've read elswhere is about 10^75.

    This kind of calculation is not just misleading but disingenuous.  The problem with it is that it completely abuses probabilities and is based on no known science, so it's completely made up.  However, the real problem is that the author suggests that the probability of DNA forming is so astronomically small as to be a foregone conclusion that it must've originated with a "super being" for which he offers no probability of its existence.

    If we ignore the religious dimension and simply postulate that there is a supreme being that is capable of creating the universe, then the problem is simply pushed back to the probability of those particles that created the supreme being.  Then you can argue that the supreme being isn't made of any such physical particles and that they are simply infinite.  Which translates into "I don't know, but it's always been like this".  This is what passes for a criticism of the science?
    Well, actually the author does address the nature of God. He can't offer proof obviously, and he concedes that it's impossible to know what was going on at the birth of the universe, but he asserts that the physical universe is merely a three-dimensional expression of the four-dimensional will of God.

    In "Time and the Technosphere," by Jose Argulles, Ph.D., he asserts that time is not linear as we have conceived it. He states that time is vertical and radial, and that time does not move at light-speed, rather time is instantaneous omnidirectionally. He touched on an experiment where a researcher beamed a message into space and received confirmation that the message had reached its destination before the message could travel there at the speed of light. Arguelles asserts that thought and time are infinite and instantaneous. In the Silva Intuition System (which teaches Remote Reviewing) and in Dr. David Morehouse's "Coordinate Remote Viewing Training Manaul," I found information asserting that the universe is holographic at the sub-atomic level. This means that you, I, and every other being and object in the universe has a specific sub-atomic frequency that exists in all three-dimensional points simultaneously. I may exist physically in the spot where I'm writing this sentence, but my holographic echo is omnipresent throughout the entire known universe. This aspect is what makes Remote Viewing possible, because I'm not traveling at the speed of anything; in essence, I'm already there! I project my mind to a place where my echo is already present, and my echo is omnipresent. If I can accept this argument which makes Remote Viewing possible, and I have Remotely Viewed (six times, all by accident, and I've viewed myself in a previous life), then I must accept that God is omnipresent by the same means. What takes the real leap of faith for me is that the physical universe is the merest fraction of the totality of existence. Even theoretical physicist David Deutsch believes that there could be 10^550 parallel universes, each with 10^whatever atoms. Read his book, The Fabric of Reality, it's good!

    There will never be physical proof that God created the universe or that the universe came into being by chance, but since I have seen places in real time that were separate from my physical person, where I was in control of what direction I was facing, and I was awake when it was happening, I must conclude that I am more than what is perceived by the senses and with instrumentation. I am not limited to the confines of the flesh, I can view the universe at large (or rather I will, once I learn to control going into the trance rather than it happening when I least expect it)! Therefore I choose to "wager on God," as Louis Pascal puts it. I choose to take the chance to "win everything."

    Gerhard Adam
    Sorry, but that's simply rationalizing all manner of beliefs with the result being that anything goes.  While you can certainly choose to believe as you like, it doesn't remotely resemble science and all the other "scientific" stuff becomes gibberish.
    Therefore I choose to "wager on God," as Louis Pascal puts it. I choose to take the chance to "win everything."

    I found this statement interesting since it violates the tenets of both positions.  It is a silly position for a scientist to take and it is a cynical one for a religious believer.  It's kind of like considering religion an insurance policy,"just in case".
    Not an insurance policy, a knowing. You've forgotten what I wrote in my original post and in my response to your response. My choice comes from the totality of everything I've experienced, from roaming the house of a friend from the confines of my living room; to seeing myself as an insenstive prick who died just after the woman who loved me made one final attempt to win my affection; to reading how people in past-life regression-therapy have been recorded speaking languages under hypnosis that they've not been exposed to in their present lives; to accepting that there are no transition-states between life-forms in the fossil record, and that many of the ones on record have been found be hoaxes; to accepting that the Earth's EM field is getting weaker and that when usable energy and total energy were equal, scientists estimate that it was between 10 to 12,000 years ago; to accepting that the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics don't support random chance; to have found myself hovering thousands of miles above the Earth's surface, turning towards space and rushing away past the moon in a matter of seconds, where a moment before I was practicing a meditative trance (without drugs) while sitting upright in a chair; to have been asleep in bed to be awakened by every muscle in my body twitching and my hair standing on end, and hearing a tinny, electronic-sounding voice in my late grandmother's warmth say "Only you can heal; only you can bow," to accepting Deutsch's argument that there could be 10^550 parallel universes; to the thought that the scientific method was outdated the moment it was created, because of quantum entanglement and the expansion of the universe (the observer and the universe interfere with the observed phenomena). The totality of my experiences and thoughts create what I believe, and that I accept that modern science may have more understanding of the periodic table than ancient humans, but that I'm not so arrogant as to believe that modern humans know more about the nature of humanity and its inception.

    You have what you can see with your eyes. I have what I can see from the expansion of my mind beyond the border of my physical body (again, without drugs)! I've taken the time to go from being a devout, dogmatic Southern Baptist, to an agnostic, to accepting creation science, to experiencing travel in 4th dimension, to accepting creation. All that in forty-two years. What journey have you been on?

    Gerhard Adam
    Why do you feel compelled to use your personal experiences to argue science?  You must realize that the two have nothing in common and to suggest that your personal experiences supercede what is known to science is simply absurd.

    Science deals with a very specific domain and that absolutely requires the ability to verify and confirm the knowledge that it lays claim to.  This doesn't make it infallable, it simply provides a means by which it can self-correct as more evidence is acquired.

    As I said before, you're certainly free to believe whatever you'd like, but you are not free to invent your own facts.  Whatever view of the world you hold, is fine for you but whatever else it is, it isn't scientific.  I don't understand why people insist on taking their personal beliefs and coming on a science site behaving as if science is some immature discipline that simply "doesn't get it".

    While there are certainly inadequacies in how some research is conducted, and sometimes other factors can interfere, there is no better method that practices the brutal honesty and self-correction that science does.  Even if everyone violently disagrees on a conclusion, we all agree that there is a need for standards regarding acceptable data. 

    So certainly feel free to practice your personal beliefs, but don't kid yourself that you have the slightest degree of scientific backing for your beliefs.  You are simply demonstrating a disrespect for decades of hard-won knowledge by suggesting that you can single-handedly undo centuries of work simply because you've had a "vision".
    I can see that you're one of those people who have an answer for everything, but I will tell you that the realm of understanding comes through ignorance. You hold science on a pedestal, with the unwavering conviction that all else falls short of its precepts. And how much has truly been hard won? Pasteur was one of thee prominent scientists to finailly put spantaneous generation to rest, but now we're told that life began from inorganic material. Science has merely come back around to standing on old beliefs, so how much has been won?

    To make you happy, because as an actor and an artist I'm here to promote the harmony of humanity, I will cease giving my thoughts on a scientific website. But know this, one moment in a vision is worth years of concentrated study in the mundane. I didn't coin that phrase, but I wish that I had. Have you ever had a vision? Not a dream while you were asleep, but a vision while you were awake? Like sitting upright on your couch and imagining yourself leaving your body, to have the sensation that your face was peeling off like Velcro, and that just before your face phased through the ceiling of your apartment, you let out a yelp and found yourself sitting upright on the couch. Or another time you sat listening to monaural beats with pink noise and suddenly saw that the wall of your apartment facing the street was detaching a few inches away from the rest of the building, and when you looked at the windows, with the blinds drawn and the curtains closed, an irregularly-bordered tunnel formed in the middle of your field of vision, allowing you to see cars parked on the street, and people walking along the sidewalk. I've had those visions. How are they possible if I'm no more than what the physical dimension allows?

    Go to Amazon.com and purchase the "Coordinate Remote Viewing" training manual for $18 used (I bought my kit for $145 new). Purchase the Sliva Intuition System and study all 12 CD's, the workbook and the student handbook (thats' going to cost you $275). I dare you to have a vision and then hold your precepts of science, I dare you!

    I now concede that I have no business on this site, and leave you with the last word, should you care to take it...

    Gerhard Adam

    I will take the last word on this because your final point deserves a response.  Unfortunately you can't seem to see the fallacy of your reasoning, but instead basically present all manner of phenomenon under the point that I should simply "trust you".

    You want to challenge science by arguing that everything known is artificial but that somehow you (and some others no doubt) have seen through the fog and know the "truth".

    However, it appears that for a combined total of $420, there are "kits" available which will make this "truth" known to me (once again ... "trust you").

    Finally there's the implicit requirements that goes with all of these claims.  If somehow it doesn't work for me, then somehow it will be my fault for not believing strongly enough, or doing something wrong.  It is in this that we see the difference between such claims and science.  Science would say that if the results are not repeatable then it must be the fault of the scientist, whereas claims of supernatural outcomes invariably fault the practitioner.  

    Whether you like it or not, the latter is always the mode of the "con artist".  Trust me, why would I mislead you, there's some "secret" to the universe that you're missing.  It's all drivel, if you can't produce something repeatable that bears the scrutiny of careful investigation.  Therefore whatever you might be experiencing, or think you've experienced ... if you can't elevate it beyond such anecdotal evidence, then I have no idea what it is and I suspect neither do you. 

    You hold science on a pedestal, with the unwavering conviction that all else falls short of its precepts.

    This shows just how little you understand of science.  Science is the one area that depends on criticism and repeatability.  It is the one area that says ... "don't trust me", do it yourself and see if it works.  Instead you want to use it as a lever to argue that somehow I'm being close-minded by adhering to scientific principles, where your approach is that of the priest or shaman.  Trust me, I know the universe .... therefore follow me.  In the end, it's simply dishonest.

    (I read your post).

    Gerhard, it is now Dec. 2012. and that is what many of those in the science field are telling us. creation is all about probabilities.they are now implying that there are a infinite amount of dimensions and universe's out there. non of which can be proved. but essentially they are saying . "Anything Goes". With that kind of thought they can swallow the fact that our universe is so finely tuned for Life.With a infinite amount of possibilities eventually a universe like ours will turn up. Sounds to me they are moving outside the realm of science
    J.C.

    Gerhard Adam
    Not quite sure where you're going with this, but (just for the record), it's still 2011.

    Regardless of the number of supposed dimension or universes and regardless of how often infinity is abused, it isn't as simple as claiming that "anything goes".  I do realize that some people will use that argument and rationalize all manner of possibilities.

    In my book, it still comes down to the same basic problem.  We know of one planet that has life on it, and until we find another one than any claimed probabilities are pure speculation. 

    I do agree that there are many things that are moving outside the realm of science, but we don't have to contribute to it, nor do we have to grant credence to claims that do that.
    I, for one, believe that evolution and creationism are both valid and that the two are compatable. Without a doubt, evolution of species takes place. Of less certainty is the proposition that it is always random. There are studies which suggest that examples of apparently rapid "evolution", may be the product of so-called "excess dna" (within the genome involved) which is already programed to meet a challenging environmental change. Without digressing into those studies, the programed nature of dna is, I believe, a major challenge to the notion that life and evolution are entirely random, accidental and/or the fortuitous mixing of naturally occuring acids. As you pointed out, cominations of dna are actually bluprints for the creation of almost infinitely complex and detailed living organisms. Who or what did the programing? It seems there are just two choices - either dna itself is the master creator or it was programed by an outside intellegence.

    Hank
    It's a reasonable supposition but the distance between belief and science is vast - and where religious empires are built.

    The spark of life is a question for philosophers and science is interested in explaining the world according to natural laws, so why there is any confusion at all is mostly because kooks on both fringes want to make it so - if it weren't a science versus religion war they would be off on some other rant, like who is better, BabyFace or Puff Daddy.
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    Ah, No. it's not reasonable.
    It's exactly here that both arguments fail.
    First, there is no 'belief' in the scientific method.
    there is only hypothesis and demonstration under given circumstance.
    The very term 'belief', is the sticking point. it means two very different, and mutually exclusive things, depending on which side of the determinist fence is being defended.

    'Creationism' does not start or end with the premise that there was intent and volition in determining the parameters that define the existence we observe.
    Were that the sum, then we could all just say 'ok' whatever, and mill about in the herds we do.

    There are two, and again mutually exclusive further premises.
    Either, the original intent, and volition, AND ALL of the subsequent design was perfect and the outcome in it's most minute aspects, inevitable
    Or, the game is still being played, and the source of this intent and volition occasionally tweaks the rules.
    If the intent, and the plan is crystalline, inevitable and immutable, then inscrutable or not, no further manipulation is possible or expected. Neither probability, nor free will exist. God, has left the building. The fundamentals of morality (and hence religion) are null because there is no such thing as personal responsibility.

    If the intent, and the plan, is being monitored and hence manipulated,... Say, for example, that a free will decision in one place is countered by a minor miracle in another.
    Then whatever the intent, or volition, the plan is not complete, and the outcome is not determined. This on a personal, planetary, and universal plane. Such is the place of 'prayer'.and of course, judgment and/or redemption.

    "Science", If by that term you refer to actions and attitudes that presume that we own our own fates in the midst of uncertainty. Is in fact, wholly irreconcilable with
    "Religion". If by that term you mean actions and attitudes that presume that an outside agent manages the result of our actions and that we know this because it has been 'revealed' to a certain few that are appointed spokesmen.

    "Science" is the 3rd choice. Probability exists. Free will exists. Whatever God is, does, or doesn't, affects not the music of the spheres,the path of leptons, breezes, men, armies, or galaxies.
    There is no evidence of science in God. There is no evidence of God in science. the two concepts are out of phase.

    The Holy Ghost, tells us naught of bosons. The Resurrection cannot be explained in terms of quarks.
    Science is a-theist only in that there is no mathematical symbol for . (yes, I'm sure you've seen the comic strip) humor not withstanding, there is no way to insert 'God's Plan' into an experiment.

    If Prayer can alter the course of a speeding car, or a single photon, Change the mind of a child, or a judge. Then there are no rules. no physics, no expectation. all there is is.... waiting.

    To think that all the mass and energy we can see, sense or postulate, for 15 billion lightyears in any direction, is all there to assure that this species on this planet reaches some sort of racial culmination.... What unspeakable arrogance.

    Hello Polyhauler, There is certainly valid "belief" and "disbelief" in any given scientific hypothesis pertaining to which a dispositive demonstration has not yet been presented. Moreover, I did not define creationism with any particular parameters, including any notion that a presumed creator has predetermined every outcome resulting from creation. Back to my original thesis, it is urged that trying to prove that dna was created by a higher intellegence by attempting to show that the notion of its random formation is mathematically unsustainable, may well focus on the wrong feature of dna. Mapping the physical structure of the human genome took years, utilizing the most powerful computers available and is certainly scientically impressive, but that was the easier first step in understanding it's functions and how they originated. The latter is much more complex and, to me, less explainable (in terms of natural processes), in terms of how our genome encodes very precise formulae for utilizing raw materials in its environment (also defined by the genome) to build, sustain and reproduce a highly intellegent species in extremely minute detail. We have barely scratched the surface in trying to understand the dna blueprint and, thus, it is impossible to explain all of the design elements in terms of random evolution. In the final analysis, those who reject the notion that dna and its functions were designed by a higher intellegence must rely on faith that it must have been naturally formed because it is here! This is no more valid than the faith of creationists that dna shows intellegent design and cannot be explained by natural processes.

    Now, Why do we keep just going around in that same ridiculous circle? Have you read this thread?

    "Evolution" has naught to do with 'Random'.
    There is not a single aspect of "selection by fitness" that is random. Exactly the opposite.
    While probability reigns to some certain and as yet unquantified extent in the occurrence of change in any self-assembling system. (of which we only know one extant)

    Changes may have only one of three possible effects.
    they may enhance replication, retard it, or affect it not.

    Those of null survival value may in sum and in retrospect
    be seen as of even probability. It is pointless to argue whether or not this inflicts sufficient turbulence to nullify the trend.
    Even changes that are considered null today, may at some point combine to induce an effect. Or, be artifacts of a change that is no longer potent.

    Those that retard replication, simply lose. and cancel.
    Those that enhance replication, simply win.

    It takes no god to enforce the fact that it's tougher to do things right than wrong. You ever play Craps?

    Fitness for the circumstance is the very definition of competition. changes in circumstance, change fitness. You ever go to a party overdressed?

    Changes occur at a relatively constant rate. enhancing and retarding changes are not, cannot be evenly distributed.

    In the present case of a self organizing system such as a genome, there will, and in fact mathematically must be regions of the chain more or less susceptible than others.

    This is probabilistic, but by no means random.

    Why am I, the archetypal underachiever, explaining this simple crap in the midst of all these bigheads?

    Creationists are constantly reaching into that same old bag, and pulling out the same old FUD, and hijacking terms for their own convenience.

    Selection does not require 'faith' in any form shape or size. it can be effectively demonstrated, at need, with a loaded die.

    Because some people afflicted with 'faith' based reasoning simply cannot encompass or comprehend the simple recognition of probability as the final factor, they cannot fail to mislabel simple conditional acceptance as 'belief'. this is a self serving, and ultimately self defeating error.

    What burns me, Is that there are those that understand this, and do it intentionally, and disingenuously.

    Evolution != Random. Deal with it.

    You're right on one count... it took thousands of inventive minds to go from nothing to the 747. You might even say that each step of the way was intelligently designed.

    heterotic
    So now there are thousands of intelligent designers in the theory?
    While I'm at it. lets put this one away too.
    It took thousands of generations of millions of inventive minds to find all the ways to not make a 747.

    T A Edison, (The emperor of Menlo Park) liked to take personal credit for results of the monkey like research
    he once lorded.
    One quote attributed, and likely true, has him declaring:
    "Progress? We've made great progress. We've found thousands of things that don't work."

    It would be like arguing the probability of having the Wright Brothers build a 747.
    .
    Gerhard Adam | 08/19/09 | 14:05 PM

    I would put it more along the lines of "It would be like arguing the probability of 'nothing' building a 747" I think that is the argument your heckler was trying to get across.

    Gerhard Adam
    That doesn't make any sense, since that isn't the point being made in that post.
    Gerhard Adam
    Yes, and it's also an interesting property of probabilities, because when someone asks what the probability of DNA forming a living organism is, I always answer 1.00 because we're here having this discussion.  It's like discussing the probability of winning a lottery with the winning ticket holder.

    Whatever else we may think, we have to work from the premise that life is a certainty since it's here.  Therefore, everything else that suggests an alternative explanation is clearly missing an important ingredient.

    If you haven't seen them already, check out Dave Deamer's posts.
    Hank
    He got a book deal to do the stuff he wrote here.   He has mentioned to me a few times we should do an anthology of stuff here but I don't know any publishers and self-publishing looks cheesy.

    With all the book authors we have we should be able to find a top-tier publisher/agent but I'll be danged if I have the bandwidth to do that also.
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    heterotic
    You could always do a sister site. I know someone with the bandwidth *cough* me *cough*.

    Hank
    You get us an agent/editor to sign us up with an advance and you're going to get your lone article in the book!   :)
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    heterotic
    Wouldn't that be lucky! I'll see what I can find. *skips away merrily*
    heterotic
    Thanks for the link! Lots of reading to do.
    >Yes, and it's also an interesting property of probabilities, because when someone asks what the probability of DNA forming a living organism is, I always answer 1.00 because we're here having this discussion.

    You're begging the question... you're assuming that we're here because the DNA formed by natural causes, which is in fact the questiion we're trying to answer. So you're assuming your answer, and when you do that, yes... the probability is 1.00, but it's a flawed argument.

    heterotic
    He said "DNA forming a living organism." He is assuming that this is true because it's more than obvious that it is. *chuckle*
    "It's like discussing the probability of winning a lottery with the winning ticket holder"
    What pointless analogy, the chances of that person winning are still millions to one, whether you talk to them after the fact or not.

    Gerhard Adam
    ...the chances of that person winning are still millions to one, whether you talk to them after the fact or not.
    Sorry, but that simply demonstrates your lack of understanding.  The probability of ANY particular person winning may be millions to one.  However, the probability that SOMEONE will win is 1.00. 

    I wish that gender was not an issue in this world that we live in, which by the way 50% of 6.5 billion are females. We need to draw all the brain power we can get as we move forward into the future.
    RBC

    heterotic
    I agree to an extent. I hate the idea of a child being raised in daycare, and not many fathers are willing to stay home so that the woman can move ahead professionally.
    Cher,

    Your argument doesn't work, because you're not addressing the concept of the information that's contained in the DNA code, and information theory in general. DNA of a living organism isn't made up of just any [random] combination of the 4 bases A, T, G & C. Genes contain information which is represented by particular sequences of the base letters, similar to how computer programs contain information represented by 1's and 0's. The bits of a functional computer program are not random. How many 3GB computer programs are there that would be functional? I agree with you that that number is very large. However, I think it is smaller by many orders of magnitude than the total number of possible combinations of a 3GB string of 1's and 0's.

    Asked another way, how may novels could be written? Clearly a very large number. But it's still a much smaller number than the total number of novel-sized strings of random letters that could be arranged randomly. The difference is information content.

    Hubert Yockey, an information theory professor, and apparently an agnostic (see pg. 291 of "Information Theory and Molecular Biology"), calculated the odds of a single gene coming together in a functional (viable) way as 10^70, assuming all of the letters to build the gene were present (and you can't cheat by saying 1/2 of a double-helix strand already exists, because the same information content is present on that half-strand as well). This isn't a calculation of any one particular gene coming together, but rather an estimation of that much information self-assembling. Considering that there are only 10^18 seconds in a universe that is 13.5 billion years old, the universe would have to try about 10^50 different combinations every second for the entire life of the universe, just to get the information content of one gene self-assembling by chance. But it's far worse than that, since the window of life's origin is less than 100,000 million years (you have to have the elements available to make the letters A, G, T & C, in the first place, which requires about 10 billion years of star formation and supernovae explosions to get the heavier elements, and you have to start after a suitable rocky planet like earth cools off enough). Also, it's worse still because the simplest possible organism is estimated at 260 genes, and we have about 500 (if I'm remembering the numbers correctly... I'm an engineer, not a microbiologist). So just at the right time in our universe, about 10 to 11 billion years ago, life and the incredible amount of information it represents relatively suddenly sprang-up.

    These calculations are not a proof of intelligent design, of course, but I hope they make the case that intelligent design is not unreasonable. Lest you be a "statistics debunker." :)

    heterotic
    It does not make a case for an intelligent designer. I don't really understand how, ONLY because of unknown factors at this time, the probability of abiogenesis (which is a moot point and incalculable  probability, since we cannot know exactly the conditions of where the first molecules came together to form the first double-helix of molecules that formed life nor the possible permutations of these particles that could result in life), can be hard to believe, but a being that needs no creator is believable. Science tells us, that it is possible, given enough time, it will happen. IE; 1 in 10 people will trip on a specific crack in the sidewalk; once 10 people have walked across the sidewalk, 1 of them will have tripped. Trying to prove that life had to come from a conscious being is no case at all, it creates an infinite mystery of where did that life form come from, and so on and so on.

    A double-helix itself is no mystery. It happens in space with particles, and anywhere else that there is magnetism and spin.

    Why do creationists/ID-proponents find it easier to have faith in a superior being than to observe nature and the universe and the elementary particles at work?
    "Odds of a strand of DNA arranging itself in the right order to create life? 1 in 10^400,000. About the same as YOU winning the lottery EVERY DAY for 15 Billion consecutive years. Good luck."

    It seems everyone is missing an obvious point regarding the odds of DNA occurring randomly. Sure a single trial is extremely unlikely, but that is not a complete calculation! Among other things, we must know the total number of trials. Not surprisingly the total number of trials is absolutely staggering! (we're talking about ALL of the available molecules on earth that are bumping around in ALL conditions over a VERY long period of time) And of course the more trials, the more likely a specific outcome.

    Let's put it this way...... on an infinite time line with infinite amounts of trials we will get every possible outcome (no matter how mind-blowingly unlikely) an infinite amount of times.

    Imagine your odds of winning the lottery if you played it 10^400,000 times a day. My main point is that even though it is unlikely it is still possible, and if you play it enough times you win again and again and again......

    Gerhard Adam
    Certainly your point is valid about a single trial.  However, it is equally important to recognize that even your example focuses on a single result.  A more precise example might be a lottery where you win a smaller amount of money, but retain a winning number.  For each trial, your chances improve on finding another winning number, which increases the amount you win.  As a result, each trial is built on a previous succcessful trial, each requiring lower odds of adding more winning numbers.

    No one has ever suggested that a human being was produced as a result of the random assembly of DNA, so when people throw around the probabilities mentioned, you are completely correct in calling them out on the obvious flaw in their reasoning.
    MikeCrow
    I like to think of it as a large group of monkeys who each might get to type one letter on a piece of paper, and then pass that on to it's descendants, who might get to add a letter, and so on.

    At this point it doesn't take much of a population nor a lot of children to cover a very large 'letter' space, over a large number of generations
    Never is a long time.
    Gerhard, I was referring to the law of averages, when there is a large number of independent outcomes in which the probability of each outcome occurring does not change. My point may not have been presented well. Each trial has the same low probability. However if we pull back to see the full massive set of trials (all the possible arrangements of atoms and molecules in earth's biologically formative years) we would likely find many DNA successes (provided that it is indeed statistically possible and enough trials are done).

    It seems to me that your point (mentioned 4/06/11) that atoms don't just connect by pure randomness, combined with other principles of chemistry and laws of physics etc. should dramatically increase the probability of DNA occurring. And if I understand your previous comment, you don't necessarily think it's necessary for DNA to occur in one complex sequence event, but in many accumulative steps (groupings of molecules). Again this could greatly increase the probability numbers for DNA.

    Probability and randomness can be pretty interesting stuff. Consider the likelihood of a specific individual winning the lottery multiple times. The probability of that specific occurrence is extremely small, yet when we pull back to view all the lottery trials we find that this actually occurs repetitively. Much like the odds of a projectile landing on a specific blade of grass in a massive field. It is fairly improbable for that particular blade to be struck, but virtually certain that some blade of grass will be struck.

    It just so happens that extremely rare events occur and given enough sets of trials, all possible events will indeed occur repetitively. The problem is that most people can't understand this and use magical thinking to explain extremely rare random events (heck, often it doesn't even have to be all rare).

    Thank you Gerhard for your comments in this post. I've read most of them and they appear very thoughtful and accurate. And of course thank you Cher Stewart for your work as well. Good stuff.

    Correction: I said " So just at the right time in our universe, about 10 to 11 billion years ago, life and the incredible amount of information it represents relatively suddenly sprang-up" but it's really only 3.5 to 4 billion years ago (10 to 11 billion years after the big bang).

    heterotic
    You talk about suddenly springing up, when in reality, there have been many double-helices that resulted in no life. We know that the molecules that form DNA do result in life, and there are likely billions of ways to arrange these molecules and they will still form some sort of organism. Earth is an estimated 4.54 Ga. The oldest fossils we have found are an estimated 3.5 Ga. That means, it took an estimated 1.4 BILLION years for the right conditions and the right molecules to start to form life here on our planet. That's an estimated 4.5e^7 seconds, so any probability of chemical events leading to the first nucleic acids to form prokaryotes becomes highly probable.
    Fred Phillips
    I wish I knew more about biology. I do know probability, however. (And teach it, with dismaying frequency.) To say, 
    What bothers me most about arguing against evolutionary theories and abiogenesis using probabilities is the fact that they truly are incalculable 
    is the same as the probabilist's sentiment that, "You gotta specify the sample space."

    It's actually very easy to calculate the probability of any particular novel being written at random. Just specify the range and number of characters (alphanumeric characters, not human and animal ones) in the novel - that's your sample space, "all the equally probable novels with x characters drawn from this set" - and stipulate that you have enough monkeys, typewriters, and time. And enough zeroes to put to the right of the decimal when you write the probability.

    I hope that paragraph wasn't too nerdy. Anyway, the problem would be the same for a genome consisting of x base pairs. Very calculable. 

    What's incalculable is the probability of getting to that genome along a certain historical path. We cannot specify the sample space (all reasonably possible paths). So we have no business talking about probabilities.

    Ditto as soon as we allow that Thomas Pynchon did not write Gravity's Rainbow at random. His personal history and the California environment of the 60s were what they were, and we can't hope to specify alternative "equally probable" histories of Pynchon's formative influences.

    I heard that any plausible set of early-Earth chemicals includes a lot that were autocatalytic, which makes the (notional) probability of life quite a lot higher than we might naively expect. 

    But, as I say, I don't know much biology. The thrust of my comment is that we should discuss genetics, and most other complex subjects, on the basis of the applicable substantive science, not on the basis of "probabilities." Complex scientific areas mean little chance of specifying a sample space. 

    This goes triple for cosmologists who put forth multiple-universe ideas. :<(  Don't get me started.
    heterotic
    When we talk about chemical creation, it's very clear that chemical reactions at Earth's early stages could produce organic molecules, and therefore, likely did. We also know that life as we know it, from beginning to end (of a single life) is a series of chemical reactions. Even without any biochemical knowledge, the notion of of abiogenesis is just not as far-fetched as Creationists and ID proponents want to believe. Same with cosmological ideas in general. We know that physics is a part of our everyday life, we know that forces interact with leptons and quarks to create the molecules that create those chemical reactions. Even with zero competence in particle physics, it's certainly no quantum leap to know that physical reactions caused the birth of our universe.

    We can calculate the probability of a specific genome occurring, but we cannot calculate the probability of any genome occurring. We have found that changing just one base pair in a protein producing gene that forms a heart that once had one working chamber, can form instead a heart with two working chambers. We can change one base pair in an expression-control gene that signals the embryo to grow legs, and the embryo will be born without them. The sheer number of possibilities for the very first living organisms is incalculable because we do not know not only how many permutations of base pairs result in life, but we don't know the lengths of the first genomes that could have occurred. We can only keep experimenting with assumed data of the chemical and physical state of Earth leading up to life, because we can only make educated guesses.

    Like you said though, arguing probabilities of these theories is ridiculous, and it seems to be one of the only arguments that non-believers are using to deny that it is plausible.
    I calculate the odds of a billion monkeys, with caps lock, typing "MARY HAD A LITTLE LAMB" since the universe began, assuming they type a billion characters per second to be about 1 in 37. Takes allot longer to get Hamlet.

    Informational and Organizational entropy are as real as energetic energy for ALL STATISTICAL processes. Truly random processes are inherently weak. Therefore, a process must be directed in some manner to get towards a more organized and information packed end.

    Historically, the ancient Greeks dumped the Epicurean philosophy of Lucretius because they realized that all directed processes that lead to intelligence require at least intelligence, simple and compound intrinsic to the universe (as Principle at least). Unfortunately for Atheists, that usually means the "G" word.

    Darwinian evolution cannot occur at random, however, with genetics, there is no reason for Darwinian evolution because genetic mechanisms explain species just fine - and fit the data perfectly. Where do the genetics come from? How does one get a photo-receptor cell that works even in worms, or highly complex and organized structures?

    Not through mating and not through random processes. If you say however, that preference is non-random, how come life went beyond Lichen, or Bacteria? They exist just fine without us.

    There must therefore be an abundance of intelligence simple and compound to drive away informational and organizational entropy to make complex creatures.

    William Paley was right, as was St. John the Theologian - the light (Life) shines in the darkness, and the darkness cannot comprehend it.

    Facts don't matter - only the religious zeal of the Darwinists.....

    rholley
    I have read Paley's Natural Theology, and it does have some things going for it.  It shows what one might regard as sound engineering science operating among creatures, rather than "influences", to produce for example sight.  However, Owen Barfield, in History in English Words, had the measure of him:
    The influences which go to make up the outlook of an age are sometimes seen working most powerfully – though beneath the surface – in the very minds which believe themselves to be combating that outlook most stubbornly.  The closing years of the eighteenth century produced Paley’s famous watch, a popular cosmic allegory which, in proving the existence of a Creator, at the same time relegates all His activities to the remote past
    .
    Moreover, Edwyn Bevan, in Symbolism and Belief, wrote:
    when the Rationalist asks for a rational proof of the existence of God, he is asking for something which in the nature of the case it is impossible to have.  A rational proof would draw God into the world and make Him a part of the pattern He is alleged to create.
    and
    It is highly improbable that anyone who had no belief in God was ever led to believe in God by any of the standard “proofs” of God's existence-the ontological, cosmological, teleological proof.  They were thought of by men who already believed in God as considerations harmonizing their belief, for themselves, and for others, with a general view of the universe.  .  .  .  What actually causes anyone to believe in God is direct perception of the Divine.
    I generally keep away from topics like this.  As regards mathematics, probability is not a strong point of mine - I prefer quaternions.  The main thing though is, that I find attempts to promote soul-sucking atheism tend to lead to a lot of wind.  However trying to combat them with "Creation Science" type arguments are counter-productive.
    Robert H. Olley Quondam Physics Department University of Reading England
    If a process is random - we know:

    1. Random formation of complex patterns is inherently weak
    2. Statistical mechanistic processes are subject to informational, organizational and energetic entropy.

    Random processes for machines follow p = m^e (raised to the e power) where p is probability, m is machine elements and e is minimal arrangement. If we accept the simple form for e to be 3 to form a sub machine (input process output and arguably 4 - orientation), sub machines must combine with sub machines to form ever more complex patterns with probability p.

    The e might be argued to be 3, but the m of organic chemstry is on the order of millions? billions? - even thousands is daunting. And then once you form a useful machine element, you have to combine those in accordance with what? Preference? Natural Selection?

    In the real world, energetic entropy is obviously overcome by the big fusion ball in the sky that is 339,000 times bigger than the Earth to allow for complex intelligent life to ascend to immense complexity.

    What overcomes informational and organizational entropy?

    Natural Selection is a nice grouping of two words, but what does it really mean? Genetics happens? Randomness assembles itself when preferenced for survival? What is the mechanism that overcomes informational and organizational entropy?

    Just as the Uncertainty Principle is a real statistical phenomena that limits knowledge in essence in the universe for all statistical processes (time frequency domain finite convergence limit) - the same exists for assembling machines/mechanisms.

    If genetics happens - is natural selection sufficient or necessary? If randomness rules, how does one preference such awesome complexity?

    If something is driving the assemblage of the machinary of life, that includes immense sophistication (energy efficiency, photo-multiplication, power management, signal processing, voltage regulation, mechanics, kinematics, dynamics, intelligence) - what is that something?

    It seems to me Natural Selection is just a philosophy.

    Andy,

    You missed Cher's point I think. Her point is that, yes, the probability of getting any particular string of letters like MARY HAD A LITTLE LAMB (to use your example) is infinitesimally small. But the probably of getting any 22 character string that is not gibberish is much much greater. How many 22 character strings exist that make sense, conform to the rules of English, do not contain any spelling errors, and make a complete sentence (a complete thought that conveys actual information)? Probably a lot! Let's call that huge uncalculable number X.

    Now my point was that X is orders and orders of magnitude smaller than the total number of possible combinations of 26 letters plus a space (27 to the 22nd power, or 27 ^ 22, which is 3^31).

    Cher, would you not agree that even though we cannot easily calculate X, it has to be many orders of magnitude smaller than 3^31? Certainly some smart person somewhere can attempt this calculation, or at least come up with some reasonable upper and lower bounds.

    As I mentioned in my previous post, in the Information Theory book, Yockey attempts this type of calculation for getting one gene's worth of information content by chance (not a specific gene, mind you, but that level of information content of any type). He comes up with 10^70. How far off can he be? Has anyone refuted him?

    My other point is that even if X is, say, 10^10 or 10^15, a very large number, you still get statistically impossible odds of having ANY significant information content spontaneously generating. Sure there are a lot of books in the Library of Congress. What are the odds that you'd get any one of them by randomly typing for a billion years? Even if you had a billion Libraries of Congress, it's a statistic zero in the 10^18 seconds you have (and it's far worse than that because life appears almost as soon as it is possible, given the conditions of earth 3.8 billion years ago).

    Sorry, Cher, even if we grant your point I don't see how it helps you. Give me your wildest liberal guess for what X is and it's still not going to be enough.

    heterotic
    My point is that guessing X to use probability of the formation of DNA or RNA prior to it happening is a ridiculous standpoint against evolution or abiogenesis. The fact that it cannot be calculated, no matter how close you believe your guess is should be enough for anyone using it for or against evolution and chemical creation.

    There are variables that may well always be unknown; the state of our magnetic umbrella, the exact gravitational pull of Earth (as it has been proven that DNA becomes less and less likely to bind in reproduction as gravitational pull decreases exponentially), the exact chemical state of our planet and its ocean, and more. When we talk about probability of life forming, it's nonsensical, and my point was to prove that it cannot be used in any case, so the fact that it is nonsensical need not be argued.

    I don't need nonsensical arguments to know that chemical creation is correct. I don't need those arguments to know that evolution is merely a theory growing in accuracy with the more we discover of the effects a set of laws on matter.
    To put 10^70 in perspective, since the universe began, there have been roughly about 10^10 years, which would be 10^12 days, 10^14 hours, 10^19 seconds, 10^25 micro-seconds. There are less than 10^100 atoms in the universe (I think the estimate was 10^80 some years ago - maybe its gone up).

    The lottery is looking like a bad investment.

    Gerhard Adam
    Sorry, but all this talk of probabilities misses the most obvious point.  Atoms don't randomly come together.  There are rules governing how they are attracted and what kinds of energy are available and the types of forms they may take.

    It would be like taking your word example and saying that instead of randomly typing words, vowels and consonants would naturally come together more frequently than other combinations.  In addition, certain "words" might be considered chemically stable (i.e. O2 or H2O would naturally come together, so there would be no need to randomly consider "words" like "the" or "and" using your example).

    In addition, when you consider that many processes are conserved, as if once words are formed, they don't need to be re-formed, they are just moved as single entities.  It is erroneous to conclude that organic molecules must come together like a single poker hand.  It simply isn't true.
    heterotic
    Thank you!
    True, but there are billions of possible combinations. Even simple photo-receptors have to take a photon and turn it into a signal within a cell, stepping up the signal considerably and discriminating the type of light to provide useful information - EVEN FOR WORMS!

    And I am not subscribing to irreducible complexity either - forget it - complexity itself in essence, every step requires the preference for something that in graduated (not gradual) steps has ascended to a very intelligent form. in the posed selection process. What preferences complexity? Lichen, roaches, grass, bugs, bacteria, viruses survive just fine without complex things around.

    Mark-n-PRMantis
    Even Darwin would have admitted, females are not satisfied with lichens and bacteria... 
    "There must therefore be..." are words that should be based on some sort of evidence, not a lack of support for some other option. Natural Selection (and adjuncts like sexual selection) is not an 'ism' - it's not a 'belief system.' It is a tool for helping us understand how the world works. And a darned useful one, too. It is a way to quantify our observations about living organisms. That way, we can systematically investigate how it works. And... the pressures are not necessarily random - the genetic options are - to some extent. The environmental pressures on these various options are the 'directing force.' But, surely, for reliable, useful data, there isn't any room for some unpredictable God in there!
    And why do you keep ascribing some sort of 'higher character' to some 'more complex' organisms? Scientists cannot even all agree that viruses are living - and those things are incredible! Heck - HIV isn't even alive and it can grow and reproduce and kill people! We are not involved in some sort of progression.... the dinosaurs would have had a field day with you!

    Science is a method for making reliable predictions about the future based on systematically collected and analyzed evidence. There may be plenty of zeal - but in the end, there has to be something that everyone who looks has to agree on - or we need more study. When the "G" words' day comes, science won't matter anymore - until then, it's nice to be able to back up what you say with observable phenomena - it makes you feel more... right.


    logicman
    "Science is a method for making reliable predictions about the future based on systematically collected and analyzed evidence."

    Very well put, Mark!  If only we could get the general public to adopt that definition and method as a creed.  :)
    The combinations and permutations of organic chemistry is staggering - especially when one gets into long chains like proteins.

    What selection rules govern taking a photon, multiplying it, turning it into a modulated and regulated signal (voltage) and sending it to a neural network for processing????? If you only process one photon, the signal is tremendously weak. What orients the sub-components in the correct alignment to actually work? What transports each element togther? What feedback mechanisms exist to govern when one protein versus another is sythesized?

    Gerhard,

    For the sake of argument, I'll give you the organic molecules (the letters), the double helix, and even the cellular membranes and other machinery necessary for life (the hardware). What I won't give you is the information content in the DNA (the software). There's no reason why particular information like words would come together by themselves, at least from a chemical standpoint. The letters in DNA, the A, T, G, and C, can take any position in the DNA molecule with equal ease. There is no chemical propensity for any particular arrangement of these letters. That's what makes it a good medium for information... just like a hard drive doesn't have a propensity to store 1's more than 0's, or a location on a piece of paper has any greater propensity to accept only vowels than consonants from a typewriter (or alternating vowels or consonants, or whatever). Each next letter in the DNA is independent of the last, by necessity I would think.

    What you are trying to argue is akin to this: that my hard drive has a propensity to build the Microsoft Word application, by random mutation of storage locations, over time, even though at any given location on the drive I can put a 1 or a 0 with equal effort. There's nothing about the hard drive itself that compels the data to "self arrange" in ways that over time will build a viable program, or self-assemble information.

    Further, it takes a lot of information to make something that is viable and reproduces, like a single cell bacterium. There's no reason to expect that half of a bacterium that self-assembled somehow would stick around long enough for the rest of it to self assemble. If that were true, corpses wouldn't rot. Even if I gave you half of the information in the DNA, the cell wouldn't be viable, wouldn't be able to replicate or metabolize or shed waste or do any of the things that living things do. What do you call something like that? Dead. You need the whole set of information to carry-out the processes of life and produce offspring. Usually when something is wrong in your DNA they call it a genetic disease, but what you're saying is that genetic diseases should somehow "self correct."

    I don't buy the argument that "processes are conserved" at all. That flies in the face of experience, scientific observation, and statistics. The only way that happens to a level where you get a significant amount of information is if an intelligence is directing the process (like in the Miller-Urey experiments where they carefully controlled the process of assembling amino acids from a primordial soup... that, it turns out, didn't even exist on early earth, but that's another topic).

    heterotic
    I think the problem here is that you are making life out to be more complicated than it is.

    This statement: "Usually when something is wrong in your DNA they call it a genetic disease, but what you're saying is that genetic diseases should somehow "self correct."" DNA does attempt to self-correct errors. Although, not all errors are noticeable (they occur more frequently in satellite DNA, due to the quantity of satellite DNA to 'meaningful' DNA), and not all cause system instability, some help the organism, some have no affect on the species' survival, some cause problems, some stop the organism from progressing past a certain point in development.

    What I don't understand is how people have to problem accepting decomposition of particles, and even the composition of non-living organic and non-organic matter, but when it comes to DNA, it had to be a creator (who needs no creator)?
    Darwin thought cells were little simple sacs. He had no clue how things evolved just how the good stuff was preserved (natural selection) AFTER it appeared. SO he really had no theory of evolution. The more we learn the more we are astounded by the complexity of even the simplest cell. DNA can only correct or repair if it has something to compare to that is right - in itself, if it formed from chemical processes, there are no guiding lights until it is in a fully functioning unit able to reproduce fully functioning units = first cell. Such a cell appears to need at least 200 genes and hundred if not thousands of interrelated moving parts assembled in the right order. Have you seen the animations of DNA replication or protein synthesis? Whew - and then do the math!

    Gerhard Adam
    Sorry, but you're simply wrong, as is amply demonstrated by the radical changes that can occur with artificial selection.  If you elect to make this a mystical exercise, then so be it, but it isn't.  Not only are you suggesting divine intervention, you're actually suggesting that this intervention occurs at every birth. 

    Sorry, but it just ain't so.
    Gerhard Adam
    I don't buy the argument that "processes are conserved" at all. That flies in the face of experience, scientific observation, and statistics.
    You don't have to buy it, but it's true.  You're still attempting to argue that everything is random instead of recognizing that the "information" you're talking about isn't absolute.  It gets rearranged all the time (that's what genetic drift and mutations are all about).

    Similarly the whole concept of the gene clearly shows that the entire DNA strand is a composite of various sections (often with large gaps of non-protein coding components).  All you have to do is examine oscillating chemical reactions to realize that there doesn't have to be any specific purpose to such reactions for them to exist. 
    The letters in DNA, the A, T, G, and C, can take any position in the DNA molecule with equal ease. There is no chemical propensity for any particular arrangement of these letters.
    That's simply not true.  AT and CG form pairs, so "any" position simple isn't possible.  Similarly, your comparison of 1's and 0's is incorrect since there is no propensity to favor one over the other.  However, the same is NOT true of atoms which are very much dependent on the presence or absence of electrons in the orbitals and the attraction that that generates.  This is why Sodium ions and Chlorine ions readily combine into a sodium chloride compound.  Similarly, this is why two atoms of hydrogen will pair with one oxygen to form water.  These aren't accidental combinations, they are stable precisely because of the laws of chemistry and the attractive energy that each atom experiences.

    None of these examples are random in the sense of your 1's and 0's example, because in the latter case, there are no "laws" that establish their values nor is there any intended value beyond those "desired" by the user (or system).  This has no similarity to biology at all. 
    ...like in the Miller-Urey experiments where they carefully controlled the process of assembling amino acids from a primordial soup... that, it turns out, didn't even exist on early earth, but that's another topic
    It's also an irrelevant topic, since the purpose of those experiments was to determine whether amino acids could be formed, NOT to establish that this was the precise process that occurred.  This is also a common complaint about such lab research, but it is immaterial, since no one is proposing that the process employed in the lab is precisely the sequence of events.  Instead what is being studied is whether such chemical processes can demonstrate the plausibility of organic molecules being created in that fashion.  That doesn't mean that's how it happened, but it can demonstrate that it is possible.



    I'm no scientist, far from it. However, after reading blogs and sites from atheists who believe in evolution it is amazing that they are willing to accept the randomness of life although the probability of it happening is astronomical. But then they tell creationists we must have proof of what we believe and it has to be verified by science. When has any scientist ever verified that all of the molecules that make up any complex organism can create itself? I'm going to go with NEVER. All of the scientific experiments require a creator, and one with extreme intelligence. However we are to believe that life started in the most random of ways and progressed on it's on and on the way developed such complexity that to understand it you have to be a genius. When backed against a corner an evolutionist will try to explain away the most complex occurences by dumbing it down to it's simplest forms and yet they call creationists, 'fundamentalists.'. My observations have led me to the conclusion that evolutionists are nothing more than religious zealots in the faith of Atheism.

    Rick Ryals
    Dear Anonymous,

    I am an atheist who doesn't accept randomness as a mechanism for life, the universe or anything else, for that matter.  But the choices are not limited to ID or chance, contrary to the convenient ignorance of both sides of this political debate.
    heterotic
    I came to the conclusion not long ago that randomness is a projection, not an absolute.

    Things that we have yet to form an answer for seem to fall into these categories with the choice being meaningful or random. Both of these ideas come from human thought, not from the universe before neurological transmissions became what we experience.

    I realized there is no need to choose between meaningful or random, because if we change what that means, it is not a biconditional statement at all. If the variables of an occurrence are unknown, and seem from a personal perspective to be out of place, we interpret the event to be random. If the event seems to be inline with what we desire, whether consciously or sub, we interpret that as meaningful. 

    Physically speaking, on a particle level, every action has a reaction, so nothing then, is truly random.
    Rick Ryals
    And if there is a good physical reason for it...
    heterotic
    Just a physical reason. Good versus bad is human projection, again!
    Rick Ryals
    LOL... no, I meant like a law of nature that requires the universe to be exactly the way that it is for a very logical and comprehensible reason, and that requires biological life as a mechanism of the process.
    heterotic
    :) I knew you meant that, I was just being annoying.

    You are absolutely right, there is a physical reason for everything on a particle level, and it is logical and can be explained mathematically.
    Rick Ryals
    But ultimately there may be no way to know... "Why any of this?"... so I guess that meaning is still *possibly* subjective, ultimately, unless there IS some way to know why that I just don't know about... oye!
    "exactly the way that it is for a very logical and comprehensible reason"

    Cantor, Mandelbrot, and more importanly, Kurt Godel (on formally undecidable propositions) suggest that /exactly/ is a bit strong.

    If all of mathematics can never be complete AND consistent, then my guess is that the universe, governed by a very large subset (perhaps all) of mathematic, has many undecidable events, each with consequences, and so the Laplacian boast is just that.

    Even theists, given Aquinas' "Even God cannot make the internal angles of a triangle add up to anything other than 180 degrees", combined with Godel, must be forced to conclude that their God cannot have a knowledge of the formally undecidable, and therefore cannot know exactly what the rules of the universe are. (Oh dear, so Xtians must jettison the omniscience bit... or admit their deity is inconsistent, fickle, and thus imperfect).

    So, I'll happily project randomness, a synonym for undecidability, lest my head be done in like Cantor's and Godel's.

    Rick Ryals
    How does that apply if there is a perpetually inherent imbalance in the energy of the universe, (incompleteness?), that drives it to move forever forward in time in a futile effort to reconcile the disequilibrium?
    The incompleteness refers to the scope of mathematics. As the scope of the mathematical corpus increases, it becomes possible to create conjectures linking two areas of mathematics that cannot be proven or disproven (the formally undecidable bit). This actually has very practical implications in the field of computing, the halting problem.

    The implications of Godel on the philosophy of mind as mechanistic are profound, and an individual mind is (in my opinion) much less complex, and involves fewer fields of mathematics than a universe or multiverse.

    The upshot of this is that there exist statements about the universe, those statements being derived from evidence provided by the universe and formal logic, that cannot ever, regardless of how much might learn, be decidable with respect to truth and falsehood. As probability and randomness imply undecidability/incompleteness, this permits statements that have a higher degree of consistency.

    Unless, of course, you don't think the universe is governed by mathematics and logic... a condition I find incredibly ugly and discomforting.

    As far as DNA sequences goes, the maths involved in determining WHERE the gene is, and thus transcription rates, including the various error detection enzymes, becomes extremely complex, and thus brings Cantor and Godel into play.

    How we react to this state of affairs is our business (if we admit to free will). Personally, I am happy to embrace the idea of randomness in the universe, as it allows for a much richer universe to experience and appreciate than a universe that doesn't, and it dooms any Hilbert-like programs to failure, and ensures scientists have something to do until the end of the universe rather than be forced into mere accountancy.

    heterotic
    Mathematics are what we use to explain the universe. Our mathematics cannot be perfected enough to explain the entire universe, because we are human. Even though when we do something like... divide by x, when x = 0, we say it is undefined because a number can be divided into 0 parts a nearly infinite number of times, in the universe there are, by now, so many conditions based on the actions and reactions of a particle's surrounding particles that only one thing will happen. Can we predict what that particle's reaction will be? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. The unpredictability does not make it uncertain, though there may be a large, but finite number of reactions for every action. We only know so many variables, when there surely are many more that we do not have the historical data or technology to account for. Does this eliminate free will? I hope not.
    Rick Ryals
    I think that it does, but I don't think that we can measure it due to the impractical nature of the immeasurable number of interactions that La Place's demon would need to be able to calculate our fate.  So free-will, and chance will always be real to us, even if the final theory of everything is strictly deterministic.

    heterotic
    If even our thoughts are determined by the actions that all particles have taken prior to now, I think we are saved with the illusion that we have free thought. Saved by the unknown. My fear is that people who harm others may think determinism is a scape-goat.
    heterotic
    Atheism is not a religious belief. The prefix a- means without. Theism is the belief in a superior being as a creator and ruler. Atheism then means (a little algebraic logic for you) without the belief in a superior being as a creator and ruler.

    Secondly, evolution has much proof. If you knew anything about bacteria and viruses alone, you wouldn't ever call it into question. Evolution does not, however, end the idea that there is a God. You do not have to give up your faith to accept our evolutionary roots. Religious texts, yes, but those are written by other human beings, just like every other written historical artifact. They are fascinating if you look at the evolution of human culture, and you do so subjectively.

    Lastly, there is no logical argument for a superior creator or ruler, and many of us don't need a fictitious being to give us purpose. We project onto life what we want to, and if we want something to have meaning, we give it meaning, if we want to have purpose, we recognize our ability to give ourselves a purpose with our advanced neurological capabilities.
    The odds of life are very likely not as astronomically high as you might think, for reasons given by both Gephard and Cher Stewart. The laws of physics and chemistry GREATLY decrease the true randomness of DNA naturally occurring on it's on (this is not considered in the faulty probability calculations listed on this site). And also consider that most reasonable people agree that even though the math may show that a single trial probability to be extremely low, it still is possible. So, given enough trials it will occur (this is a certainty). In fact, done on an infinite scale it will occur an infinite amount of times. Based on the unimaginable (at least difficult) amount of molecules that exist on earth and the large amount of trials (total number of times/opportunities for molecules to line up) over a long period of time (apparently billions of years), and the fact that life does exist, I would say the probability of DNA occurring naturally is extremely high, given earth's apparently ideal environment.

    Most people can not recognize true randomness. When we see something extremely rare or unlikely we OFTEN fall victim to magical thinking.

    I would classify "God" as magical thinking.

    Rick Ryals
    Ah, but Copernicanism IS the non-evidenced religious dogma of *most* scientists... ;)

    http://knol.google.com/k/richard-ryals/the-anthropic-principle/1cb34nnch...
    Fred Phillips
    Cher wrote,
    We can calculate the probability of a specific genome occurring, but we cannot calculate the probability of any genome occurring.
    Taking off from Andy Holland's MARY HAD A LITTLE LAMB example, kprince responded by calculating the probability of all sentences having the same number of letters as MARY HAD A LITTLE LAMB.  Cher, don't let me put words in your mouth, but I believe you were not saying that a calculation like kprince's was impossible; you were saying that we cannot calculate the probability of the existence of genomes in the first place. 


    Then Andy trucked in entropy, a concept which carries even more potential for confusion than probability. Claude Shannon remarked (and my teachers agreed) that entropy cannot be interpreted as a measure of our ignorance. Ignorance is a psychological construct that implies not only lack of knowledge of the facts, but also (possibly) lack of capacity or preparation to absorb the facts, and even willful denial.


    It's absurd, therefore, to think we can measure ignorance. But, as the judge famously remarked about pornography, I know it when I see it. And there's more than a bit of willful denial in the comments above.
    When we talk about chemical creation, it's very clear that chemical reactions at Earth's early stages could produce organic molecules, and therefore, likely did.
    There's no merit in denying this. Scientists, including atheist and agnostic scientists, derive a sense of wonder and mystery from this awesome fact. Andy, maybe you get a similar sense from contemplating God. I'll respect your path to awe if you respect mine. That means, don't gimme no nonsense about probability, nor smoke about entropy.
    heterotic
    Well put, Fred. You were correct in your analysis of my statements.
    The ancient Greeks realized (long before Christianity - God has nothing to do with it) that if a process is directed it is no longer random. So forget the "G" word and just talk natural and nature.

    Two bike mechanics, the wright brother's looked in the sky, and they noticed how birds flew. They recognized the Bernouli equation (that one has a longer surface on the top than the bottom and this generates lift), and noticed the wing warping characteristics of birds in flight to develop the control system. They created a wind tunnel to test their designs.

    So their design of flight - the mechanics and principles came from natural design. Design found in nature. Design indeed exists in nature, nature has design QED (unless you prefer driving cross country).

    It is a matter of intelligence to put together machinery. For instance, a machine has input, process and output where output is different from input. Arguably the most simple machine in biology is the Ca or Na atom which receives a photon and kicks out an electron.... But on a subatomic scale, that is a wonderously complex process.

    Getting allot more complicated, we hook that Ca or Na atom in some sort of long chain molecule that is wrapped to form something akin to a wire where voltage can be conducted, and transmit the photon to some mechanism that takes that information and does something. In higher forms of life, we have multiplexed, discriminated and amplified signals. For example, an eye spot would be the simpler form but a photoreceptor in a worm or trilobite has to have 100,000 long chained molecules acting as photodiodes with all sorts of wonderously efficient and elegantly designed (in a natural sense) mechanisms all encoded, maintained, constructed, organized and energized within a single cell.

    Intelligence flows from the photon to the neural network through a series of machines, mechanisms, electrodynamic entities which must conserve charge, impedence match etc..... to a neural network that receives that intelligence (a photon) and does something with it - move, change direction, or read a sentence on a computer screen.

    So intelligence flows in nature. Design exists in nature, intelligence exists in nature. Intelligent design exists in nature because - even with Darwinian thinking - organisms make life/death choices based on information flow and the design is determined by preference. QED.

    If you want to ask "why" seek "God" or philosophy - if you want to ask "how" study the how's but don't deny the reality of those "hows" when they don't fit nicely in theocratic or philosophical boxes. Recognizing intelligence and design in nature is stark realism. Its historic fact, its reality.

    Also the set of sentences possible that are intelligible is infinitismal compared to the number that are - though both sets are infinite. THERE IS SOMETHING CALLED DIVERGENT SERIES - and the number of things that do "work" is small compared to the number of things that do not work. So I have to get back to work!

    heterotic
    We cannot definitively say that "design exists in nature." We observe that design exists, but it is subjective. We are looking at what does exist and work as a result of particle action and reaction, instead of looking from point 0 and following logical action and reaction. We are forgetting how many more reactions of particles resulting in "designs" that did not work, "designs" that we have no discovered evidence of, and may never know about.

    "THERE IS SOMETHING CALLED DIVERGENT SERIES - and the number of things that do "work" is small compared to the number of things that do not work."

    This is exactly correct, but that is not an argument for intelligent design, unless we can prove that the things that don't work were never "tried" and failed by nature. There are things in existence now that don't work, how intelligent is that? Adaptation comes into play in the long run in these cases, and other uses for these "useless" things eventually become necessary for survival.
    briantaylor
    A fine post and interesting discussion.
    If it wasn't for the discussions of the illusions of 'free thought' I wouldn't have a place here at the ol' SB.
    I'm not a scientist but I study philosophy and can string together words in an entertaining fashion.
    My beauty often gets in the way of people taking myself seriously too...

    Welcome, I look forward to reading your thoughts.
    Another blog here you might enjoy is by Michael White, a biologist who often does philosophy, look up "Adaptive Complexity." and while your at it, look up linguist Patrick Lockerby's blog "The Chatter Box." Patrick is one of the most clever writers here, inventive, charming and humorous.
    Design exists everywhere - we get our designs from nature because nature presents us with designs. A design is an elegant balance of forces, mechanics kinematics etc.... For instance string players from antiquity swayed with the music so their left hand would hit the proper place on the string within millimeters - because correct swaying kinematically balances and offsets the movement of the bow.... on and on the physics goes.

    Those are all natural - for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction - elegance, design are intrinsic to nature. The beauty of a snow flake - its design as a Julia set and on and on.

    Beauty and design are indicative of efficiency and function. If one looks carefully, one sees this beauty everywhere. The beauty of design is elegance applied.

    I've got a patent on a self-verifying computer language program used in the automatic design and safety analysis of nuclears. The adaptation of a genetic algorithm, like genetics itself, directs building block solutions - however, these all have intelligent cause.

    Interestingly, using such machinery to design machines is intelligent design and rather natural - because what comes about looks natural as it proceeds from the algorithm employed in nature in our creation.

    However, the set of what works poorly is large, that which does not work at all is huge. There are 20 amino acids that form - what, 30,000 proteins. Given the size of the set of useful cellular proteins, even if the set of useful proteins was in the thousands of billions, or even 10 to the 40th power - what actually works in the protein world is relatively smalled compared to the possible combinations and permutations (10 raise to a power far greater than the atoms in the universe).

    And calculating those numbers is not scientific heresy. Its a legitimate field of inquiry that needs to be rationally explored with dispassion. If the evidence leads to "God" too bad - if your interest is science and truth, pursue it with dispassion and vigor.

    Of course I believe in God - but my God is all natural - especially natural - and I am a Christian Catholic. However, I arrived at this state because I set about to dispassionately prove the religion I was raised with to be incorrect, and found to my own chagrin that the religion of my youth was not only logical, correct and consistent with reality - but very (especially - supra) natural (though I wasn't).

    I believe many do not dispassionately look into these matters because they have predisposed opinions. On one hand we have biblical literalists who want to reject what God teaches in His universe, and on the other we have those who are predisposed to an atheistic viewpoint who wish to hide from the some fanciful veangeful god (themselves).

    The truth is, God's vengeance is life, health, peace salvation visitation and blessings - and when one realizes this its easier to swallow applied probability theory in natural sciences.

    But its easier to judge those who don't share ones viewpoints as being fools, even though the list of fools includes some of the best and brightest in history. As such, why not dispassionately look at the facts - including the numbers?

    Gerhard Adam
    Sorry, but you overlook the most obvious problem with your assertion.  If there is no need to explain where the original "intelligence" came from that you claim is responsible for the design, then there is no need to postulate the existence of an "intelligence" to create what we do see.
    heterotic
    I'll repeat what I said earlier, you cannot say as a fact, that nature is full of designs. Yes, we get our designs from nature. We take our intelligent mental capacity and study nature until we know how the particles are working together. We then design prototypes and test them until we have one that works as elegantly as nature does. We also can make machines do intelligent things in very dumb ways. A design is a planned for, it is something formulated by thought. Many take the stance on the mathematics of nature to prove it must be designed because it works so simply, but again, that is far from proof of any designer.

    It is not logical to take illogical explanations to explain the obvious logic of the universe.

    As for atheists are without the belief in a superior being, it is the theists, deists and polytheists who would potentially be hiding from a god (whether fanciful or vengeful.)

    "The truth is, God's vengeance is life, health, peace salvation visitation and blessings - and when one realizes this its easier to swallow applied probability theory in natural sciences."

    That is not a truth. That is your belief. It is not scientific, and is not mathematically sound or logical in any fashion.

    "As such, why not dispassionately look at the facts - including the numbers?"

    Anyone who believes in God is passionate about it, and seems to believe it in spite of the nonsensical arguments that must accompany that belief.

    I don't see any numbers as proof for a superior being, designer or not, I see numbers as proof of evolutionary thought.
    My belief is based on facts. I don't formulate beliefs based on emotion, philosophy or preconceptions any more than any other scientifically minded person should. And I am not alone, plenty of other very hard nosed people have.

    It is not nonsense to count the number of amino acids, to look at the number of proteins (the letters and the sentences) and compute the beyond astronomical probabilities associated with formulating those observed through any random or psuedo random process.

    Its science. Its also scientific to follow laws of statistics (entropy), chemistry, physics, electrodynamics etc.... in formulation of reality. A cell is infinitely more mechanically, chemically, logically, electrodynamically advanced than any machine or robot or set of machines and robots man has ever produced. If we don't have the capability to construct something as "simple" as a cell, where do "scientists" get off explaining "origin" of species?

    Hard scientists like James Clerc Maxwell have come to opposite conclusions (than Darwinists) and did so through logic, experience, computation and thorough investigation.

    Don't be afraid of crunching some numbers - be afraid of being afraid to.

    It is up to people who propose Darwinian statistical and psuedo statistical processes to show the mechanisms with which known organizational and informational entropic statistical tendancies of open systems are overcome. Failing that, it is worth considering the possibility - even the probability - that on some level, the universe has in it an intrinsic intelligence simple and compound. According to Darwin, William Paley was his best teacher - maybe he was too good.

    heterotic
    I'm not afraid of crunching numbers. These are numbers that cannot be crunched, unless by some feat you have obtained the knowledge that no one else has - the knowledge of what we don't know.

    So far your argument is the balance of the universe needing a creator. Where did the creator come from, oh wise man?

    Where do scientists get off explaining the origin of the species? It's science. Therefore, scientists would be the most qualified. Where do religious folk get off explaining anything?
    PS - Nature is full of designs, why do you think the US military is now investigating bird flight for design of advanced aircraft?

    You seek design where you find it.

    It exists in nature, your thesis that it does not is disproven by known and knowable engineering that has in fact used natural design for human purposes. A design is a balance of forces and a use of them. Genetics provides a powerful building block mechanism to create wonderful designs real engineers in the real world mimic all the time - especially in flight.

    heterotic
    You cannot prove that the universe was planned in advance, so it is not a fact that nature is full of designs.
    People in other sciences aren't familiar with this - sorry, should have provided it.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem
    Its a very useful tool

    I don't have to prove that the universe is planned in advance to prove it is full of designs. I only have to prove that engineers and scientists use a design one time to prove that it has at least one design. It in fact has many designs. I would also argue, they arise naturally - especially naturally!

    Your assumption that designs must arise from a planned universe imply that nature cannot design? But if it cannot design, how does your neural network brain work? Naturally of course! It is mechanism, it balances forces charges etc... it is a design - one we mimic (neural networks) to do sophisticated things - like flush toilets at airports without using hands.

    Saying nature doesn't design is illogical because we use designs from nature - and are ourselves natural. But if we are not natural, what are we?

    heterotic

    Definitions of design on the Web:

    • plan: make or work out a plan for; devise; "They contrived to murder their
      boss"; "design a new sales strategy"; "plan an attack"

    • the act of working out the form of something (as by making a sketch or
      outline or plan); "he contributed to the design of a new instrument"

    • plan something for a specific role or purpose or effect; "This room is not designed for work"

    • an arrangement scheme; "the awkward design of the keyboard made operation
      difficult"; "it was an excellent design for living"; "a plan for
      seating guests"

    • create the design for; create or execute in an artistic or highly skilled manner; "Chanel designed the famous suit"

    • blueprint: something intended as a guide for making something else; "a blueprint for a house"; "a pattern for a skirt"

    • make a design of; plan out in systematic, often graphic form; "design a better mousetrap"; "plan the new wing of the museum"

    • a decorative or artistic work; "the coach had a design on the doors"

    • create designs; "Dupont designs for the house of Chanel"

    • purpose: an anticipated outcome that is intended or that guides your planned
      actions; "his intent was to provide a new translation"; "good
      intentions are not enough"; "it was created with the conscious aim of
      answering immediate needs"; "he made no secret of his designs"

    • conceive or fashion in the mind; invent; "She designed a good excuse for not attending classes that day"

    • a preliminary sketch indicating the plan for something; "the design of a building"

    • intend or have as a purpose; "She designed to go far in the world of business"

    • invention: the creation of something in the mind


    Get yourself a dictionary.

    Because something works, does not mean it needs to be designed.

    If life needs a creator, if the universe needs a designer, then a creator needs a creator, and so on into infinity.
    Nature certainly has plans - what do you think DNA is doing?

    heterotic
    Please provide proof that nature is planned.
    The web is a lousy place for a definietion. I was a design engineer for 20 years - won the American Nuclear Society National "DESIGN" Competition - I think I know what a design is! Designs exist in nature, we use them all the time.

    And DNA and Genetics has plenty of plans - DNA is a blueprint. You don't think fairies created you do you - two cells, and millions later....

    Go to Frank Loyd Wright's falling water, and see how he used ideas from sea shells to create a corrigated concrete patio cantilever leading from the main house to the guest house. Where did the design come from? Nature.

    Or Thomas Jefferson's design of serpentine walls - which form the best wall structures - again, nature's design.

    Or beehives......

    Our minds pick up on our natural surroundings and we mimic and use those things we see in our designs - which are constructions that work.

    heterotic
    You got me. I thought fairies created me.

    DNA is not a blueprint for life. DNA is an incredibly simple nucleic acid made up of sugars, phosphates, nitrogenous bases and five-carbon sugars. It is widely known that DNA, while replicated, is changing constantly. It is referred to as a blueprint and a design because we are human, and we see the past and the present as it is. Not as it was built.

    Take a set of legos. You can start putting them together to form something with nothing more than the laws of physics and you may or may not create something. Failed creations will occur more often than successful creations without a plan. Sound familiar?

    Here's a better question... if a designer or divine creator is the one planning and designing nature... changing it as He sees fit... why does DNA need to copy itself repeatedly to exist at all?
    I don't have to provide proof that nature is planned to say it has plans. Nor do I have to say it is designs for it to have designs. - Wow - you sound like a Theist!!!! Maybe your real hangup is bad theology?

    Nature contains plans - nature contains designs. Heck ants and chimps "plan" attacks.... do they devise and design. Why shouldnt' they? The are ORGANISMS and are hence organized.

    However, if you want proof nature is planned, read Mark Chapter 8 and look up the definition of "Visual Agnosia" - you will find that the man who saw trees walking was a textbook case - the first in fact.

    Or if you want, do a detailed study on the "Land of Bashan" and specifically the Roman Occupation and use of men of Bashan (tall spearmen) on crucifixions, and read the four Gospel's crucifixion accounts and read the 29th Psalm that begins "My God, My God, why hast thou foresaken me?"

    And treat the text as something worthy of real poetic, deep and thoughtful analysis and study - spend time understanding it deeply - read it with ancient Church Saints who weren't a bunch of superstitious morons - but rather very learned especially in philosophy and logic. They weren't fools. Don't presume your generation is so advanced!

    DNA is molecular Word - pattern - plan!

    Nature contains plans, designs, and intelligence. That is undeniable fact. If you say all things are natural, we are natural, and then 747's are also natural.

    I never asserted where designs came from except nature - I asserted what it in fact contains which is the purview of science - "What" - and I won awards in "DESIGN" before you were probably born!

    If you want more detailed information, say a quiet prayer, and read the references provided.

    heterotic
    It is one thing to be a scientist who believes in something out there that caused the creation of our universe; it is quite another to "talk" to a divine spirit.

    I can't take anyone seriously who thinks the Bible is a reference point for science or history.

    It is a collection of books written to tell a story, with plots and morals. I'll bet you've never even read the oldest copy there is available (written in Greek/Hebrew.)


    More detailed information about what? Nature is a constantly working, constantly building collection of particles and energy. Due to the universe's need for equilibrium and balance, we have before us our complex world. What started out as simple becomes complex. It doesn't need a plan, because the forces cause things to be in balance. Things will either work or they won't.

    Another example of simple to complex without a plan? Religion.
    For a scientific plan - consider that Einstein got his philosophy of space-time and the non-Euclidean Geometry and tensor mathematics from Bernhard Riemann. Riemann was a lover - a prayer of the Psalms (he learned to read using the Psalms). The first Psalm we Christians are to pray in the morning as commanded by St. Peter Himself is Psalm 90 - "a thousand years in thy sight are as a watch in the night..." - speaking of a general relativity of time (true Prayer is entering a time above time). In fact we are commanded by Peter to remember the relative nature of time first in II Peter!

    Eddington confirmed Einstein's general relativity prediction using a solar eclipse and noting the starlight/ star position shift behind it. If the moon were slightly larger or smaller, or slightly closer or further away - such an experiment would not have worked. The moon is right sized for Corona investigations and observations of the shift in starlight caused by the curvature of space-time.

    God is rather scientific - or we are incredibly lucky! Maybe that is why so many stupid Physicists are theistic?

    heterotic
    You've still given me no logical reason why God must exist, yet you continue to talk about this being as it is a fact.

    It's not.
    Hey - I am not arguing a designer - you are - I came here to argue science - not your religion.

    You said "DNA is an incredibly simple nucleic acid made up of sugars, phosphates, nitrogenous bases and five-carbon sugars" - Really????

    Watson and Crick won a Nobel for cracking DNA's basic structure! And Pauling fumbled on the hydrogen bonding (which he himself discovered) missing out on a potential 5th (?) Nobel. Super computers spent years analyzing genomes and still do -

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome

    DNA is used to identify individuals in court. Its a molecular blueprint for the body .

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA

    "The main role of DNA molecules is the long-term storage of information. DNA is often compared to a set of blueprints or a recipe, or a code, since it contains the instructions needed to construct other components of cells, such as proteins and RNA molecules."

    The DNA is where the genome is encoded.

    It contains the molecular pattern (LOGOS - using ancient Greek terminology - WORD - pattern) by which your made - literally knit protein by protein in the mother's womb and onward.

    ============================================================
    But if you want me to "prove" the Universe is designed, read the earilier references.

    If bird wings and control systems are not a "design" [call it all natural from a natural cause] what is it?

    Do you demand a "designer" who is personal if you see a design in nature?

    heterotic
    You are embarrassing yourself.

    I'm an atheist. I am a scientist.

    LOGOS - Reason, logic

    DNA is referred to as a blueprint for the sociological reasons I already gave you. You are making things far more complicated than they are.

    A design is a plan. A blueprint is a plan. Plans come from the mind, from thought, from consciousness.

    You observe things you see in nature as being designed. I observe them as nothing more than the forces of universe building for billions of years.
    So you do not believe in natural designs. OK -let's go by your definition. T

    Then there is no natural design or designs in nature.

    The Wright Brothers working un-naturally when they invented the airplane by copying nature?

    Does that mean the Wright Brothers were working above nature? That the Wright Brothers were Transcendent somehow?

    heterotic
    They (and many others) based a design off of naturally occurring phenomenon. They planned a blueprint using their conscious thoughts, and naturally occurring brains to understand how these things worked naturally, without a design, in nature. Using the laws of physics, and mimicking these natural functions, we are able to design useful things to advance ourselves as a species. A good reason why intelligence made its way up the natural selection food chain.
    I don't care if your an atheist or not. Its moot.

    Can you accept an all natural design?
    Can you accept all natural intelligence?

    Do those things require an intelligent designer - as opposed to a natural intelligence and natural design?

    heterotic
    Since I am not a proponent of ID or any form of a divine being, no, they do not require a designer, let alone an intelligent one. That wouldn't be logical, since that designer would also need a creator, which would need a creator, et cetera.

    I've already told you that the universe does not need a designer. The energy and particles that make up our universe have been acting and reacting for billions of years. These reactions have compounded over all of this time, much like a snowflake forming. It doesn't have a design or a designer, the laws of physics work to balance and create a shape.

    Of course I accept natural intelligence. Since you are unaware of what a design is, you probably don't actually believe in natural design either.
    I do believe in natural design and natrual intelligence - but beliefs are beside the point. I see intelligence and design everywhere in nature. That is an observation - not a cause.

    At what point does a design go from being a natural consequence of billions of years, and becoming something un-natural?

    Is a 747 natural? If it is un-natural, when does the break occur?

    My point is one could accept a perfectly atheistic view of ID - totally natural. One would have intelligence and design as part of those natural forces - and in historical point of fact, that was the case for ancient Greeks who believed in intelligence simple compound and intrinsic to the universe as a principle.

    I am really curious what your opinions are with regard to the place where design and nature diverge?

    I am also curious if there is a divergence, does that imply the individual him/herself is some form of transcendent deity? e.g. "I think therefore I AM".

    heterotic
    A 747 is natural, but requires consciousness to be designed, built and operated. Planes can not function using only the laws of nature. There is nothing in existence that I do not consider natural, because it is all made up of the same "stuff."

    How can you believe that the universe "planned" the universe? That is not logical.
    "How can you believe that the universe "planned" the universe? That is not logical."

    I did not say the universe "planned" the universe. But there are plans in the universe, designs, and intelligence. They exist at some level. Or do you dispute that?

    And you say planes cannot function using only laws of nature - I guess I disagree with that!

    You also wrote - "There is nothing in existence that I do not consider natural" - I AGREE 100%.

    ===================================================================

    My God is supra natural - especially natural so agreement does not require me to deny my Christianity - any more than ID requires you to deny your atheism.

    I simply believe love and beauty and truth are realities that are timeless and transcend the material - exist eternally etc...... I also believe we fell from that nature, in our own desire to judge others and ourselves - and in so alienating ourselves have polluted nature, and everything we see - living lives outside of that love, truth and goodness that are intrinsically part of the nature created by God.

    But ID does not require of you to believe anything, except that entropy is conserved in all its forms - and that is consistent with universal observations in all sciences - including biology.

    heterotic
    A design is premeditated. ID requires for you to believe in consciousness and planning. That is what a design is.

    There is no God, in any form, in my mind. Religion is a most terrible thing. I have never believed in God, that I can remember. I am full of love, and joy, and I do not need a divine being to make me feel connected. I just know that I am.
    ID only requires of me that I believe in intelligence, simple, compound and intrinsic to the universe. It is not a religion in any way shape or form - its a set of observations and Fermi problem type calculations that one can profit from in a purely scientific way.

    Your requirement of me to believe in consciousness in planning of the universe is not a requirement for me. I know as historic fact it is very possible to divorce those things as the ancient Greeks did in fact do.

    ==============================================================

    It only becomes a requirement for me when I consider other evidence which you have not investigated and do not accept - and apparently have no wish at this time to seriously investigate.

    "There is no God, in any form, in my mind" does not mean that there is no God in fact . It would be wise to investigate the facts of various religions - if not for belief at least for the sake of being intellectually honest and informed.

    Mother Teresa was filled with Love, Joy and doubts - and did marvelous things and was a wonderful person too. So not everyone who is religious is a child molester, any more than all people who are atheists are - or walk on water.

    Religion did not exclude Mother Teresa from doing good or being good - and in fact she credited it with her doing good.

    "Religion is a most terrible thing" only when it is purely material - interesting you used thing rather than practice.

    It is only a most terrible thing when the religion is terrible - when the God is something more aligned to something we visage in the mirror of reget, un-natural or de-natured acts - guilt, acquisition of things rather than consideration of others etc.....

    Good religion (practice) frees a person from the ultimate prison - SELF - as shown by people considered "Saints" who acted in a selfless manner for others - giving themselves to find true love - that love that gives without expectation of any reward except the presence of love itself - "God is Love." (St. John).

    heterotic
    All religions are terrible. Not all religious people are terrible, but organizations always develop a thirst for power. It is natural, it is the way the entire universe works. Consciousness makes this phenomenon something inherently negative on our species, and many other species in the struggle for power's wake.

    Self is not a prison, unless you so choose. You do not need religion to "free" yourself.

    I have taken many religious courses. It would not be wise to patronize me because I am an atheist, and I do not believe in God or ID.

    When I said, "in my mind," I was being kind, since you clearly believe it to be true. I cannot definitively say there is no divine being beyond our universe, as I cannot substantiate that claim with evidence. I do not present statements as facts unless I can back them up, unlike you.

    Planning is not "my" requirement for design. That's what a design is. Pick up a dictionary.
    Hank
    All religions governments are terrible. Not all religious government people are terrible, but organizations always develop a thirst for power.
    You just became a Republican!
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    heterotic
    lol I feel that way about governments as well, I'm an anarchist!!!
    Your "kindness" in other posts is lacking as it is in this last post. You initially asked a legitimate question surrounded by the usual put down of others:

    "How can someone believe they know the odds that the molecules that make up DNA will form a DNA strand that creates a living organism? "

    Read the Fermi problem link provided above. Note that there are only 13.7 billion years since the universe began, and only 10^80 atoms in the universe. Use the number of amino acids, the combinations and permutations associated with Proteins.

    Dean Kenyon appears about 40 minutes in - he wrote Biochemical Evolution - he disavows his own theory based on facts - Biochemical evolution was HIS THEORY - and he disavows it about 40 minutes in:
    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5585125669588896670#

    heterotic
    "Read the Fermi problem link provided above. Note that there are only 13.7 billion years since the universe began, and only 10^80 atoms in the universe. Use the number of amino acids, the combinations and permutations associated with Proteins."

    Incorrect, here is the correct way to write what you are saying:

    "Read the Fermi problem link provided above. Note that there are only AN ESTIMATED 13.7 billion years since the universe began, and only AN ESTIMATED 10^80 atoms in the universe. Use the number of KNOWN amino acids, the KNOWN combinations and KNOWN permutations associated with KNOWN Proteins."

    In 2002, a 22nd Amino Acid was discovered (pyrrolysine,) and every year, numerous proteins are discovered.

    Care to try again?
    You look younger than my children, so please forgive me for being patronizing.

    Look at the link provided with the interesting movie and Dean Kenyon, and they will show you where they do those sorts of calculations with the most simple encoding proteins - and they are incredibly unlikely given any set of random or psuedo random processes.

    See this reference for my personal expertise in automated "design. "
    http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL...

    It was very interesting work. You could essentially create an objective function to anything programmable, and then the optimizer would check with single or multi-variate results to automate design. No planning - only objective functions and algorithms - press a button and watch it do it on its own. Sort of like genetics (which is a building block approach). There were many plans - but no explicit planning - yet they all worked together to create a design by a process of design that was automated. The verification of the design and of the processes was also automatic - using a computer virus concept.

    If humans can do it, genetics can too.

    So if I walked into a Courtroom in the US or in the world, and presented my credentials for "design" - as CTO of a biotech company with a compelling international design patent and other patents - I could legitimately be sworn in as an expert witness on the meaning of "design." Could you?

    - The current estimate for universal age is 13.7 billion years +/- 1% based on KOBE data. Thermodynamics is compelling evidence - and heck, the planet is only 4.5 billion years old so whats the problem?

    - Given a fairly good guess of intersteller density, the estimated number of atoms is 10^79 power - 10^80 is 10x larger for conservatism sake - not 10^(10^124) which is the sort of number associated with probabilitistically arriving at a genome sequence. So randomness has nothing to do with the ascent of intelligent life on the planet.

    - If a 22nd Amino acid was just discovered in 2002, then we are is around +/- 4% estimate space of number of amino acids.

    If a process is not random it is directed. If a process is directed, and intelligence directs it - then there is an intelligence simple and compound intrinsic in the universe.

    If you don't like that as a scientist - tough - reality doesn't care about your opinion, atheism, theism etc.....

    Whether that intelligence arose by some process or a consequence of nature itself or stems from the uncreated Holy Trinity is something you can find out with prayer, humility and seeking competent guidance.

    Again, Mother Teresa is a counter example to your religion is always bad point of view and I hope you find people like that in your life who will truly show you the meaning of true love and the joy it brings - even in religion!

    Peace.

    jtwitten
    Do not allow the vanishingly small probability of any specific set of events happening distract you from the fact that specific sets of events happen all the time.

     
    Precisely - be scientific and search for the cause.

    jtwitten
    First determine that a cause, other than chance, is needed. As you just agreed, making your intuition hurt and improbability of event strings do not count.
    Intuition has nothing to do with it.

    If you propose to overcome informational and organizational entropy through a psuedo statistical process of natural selection (which needs to be defined a bit better) - it is on your side to show how the probabilities which are real - are really overcome.

    jtwitten
    Conflation of problems makes them trickier. Are you discussing the probability of chance producing a replicator? Or, are you discussing the probability of chance producing a particular replicator? Probabilities of a replicator occurring and discussions of the evolution of life once that has occurred are separate issues.

    On the contrary, I am first a fan of randomness (i.e., drift, in a genetic context). First, it is incumbent to demonstrate that a phenomenon cannot be entirely explained by chance. Then, it is necessary to demonstrate that a phenomenon cannot be explained by replicative advantage due to random variation.

    Where do you believe randomness falls flat? Is there not enough variation? Is replicative advantage insufficient? Because it is not clear if you are discussing biogenesis or evolution, your arguments about entropy and information are impossible to parse.
    We have reason to believe randomness falls flat everywhere because of organizational and informational entropy. There is definite knowledge that statistically, without a continuous input of some sort or rejuvenation, all mechanistic, electrodynamic, and information flow processes break down fundamentally.

    In real machines - randomness causes problems UNLESS those machines themselves feed on it AND randomness is bounded and regulated by corrective mechanisms (that we see everywhere in redundant genetic information throughout organisms). When a process uses randomness in real machines, embedded in the encoded system, there is mechanism to use failure to make improvements.

    The irony is - the more you automate design, the more intelligence is required - and this is a direct consequence of the reality of Informational Entropy. It is a real automated design problem.

    And Genetic Algorithms which came from watching biological ones - have this problem fundamentally.

    Our computers are plenty powerful enough for AI - nobody has figured out how to overcome the daunting problems of informational entropy intrinsic to the effort.

    jtwitten
    Your analogy, especially as a critique of natural selection, is lacking (as all analogies eventually are). None of the systems you discuss are self-replicating, which provides a mechanism for dealing with failure (see again my question about whether you are criticizing biogenesis or evolution, if you are not familiar with the distinction that can also be discussed). Information and order in biological systems is fundamental stored chemically and physically. Energy is expended to maintain that order (e.g., from the Jolly Rancher I am currently eating, YUM) with a great deal of that energy being wasted as heat. Local order, entropy universally goes up.

    Genetic algorithms may have been inspired by genetics, but they are not the same thing.
    William Paley's watch was an excellent lesson that went over Darwin et. als head apparently - but not really.

    The more complex a system is - the more likely it is to break down. That's mechanistic reality - and its compounded by electrodynamics etc...

    The more likely it is to break down, the less likely it will survive or thrive. The less likely it is to survive, the more likely Darwinian mechanisms go the other way - toward simplicity and nillism......

    There is no reason for survival mechanisms to go beyond Lichen, or single celled organisms, or proteins or carbon, or Monkeys - at any point in the chain. Darwin explains exactly nothing.

    But in fact we have life - so we have genetics and now we have to account for genetics to ascend to highly complex forms of life and genetics must contain information sufficient to overcome all of the above very real mechanistic, probabilistic realities.

    Informational entropy (same as mechanistic) again comes into play. You now have to pack loads of information into DNA - and the more information you pack in, the less likely it occurs randomly - again. The problem is even worse than it was in 1860 - infinitely worse. Darwin would not have bought it had he a scanning electron microscope and saw with his own eyes, that the photoreceptor of a worm has 100,000 long chain polymer diodes (protein diodes) to multiplex a light signal to create a voltage impulse to transmit to a ganglia - and I have greatly, greatly simplified the actual mechanics in that description (and the probability of forming the words for that greatly simplified description since the universe began is astronomically small). Which means genetics is now immensely efficient as well..... hmmm......

    This was fought over 1700 years ago and the Epicureans lost for very real mathematical and logical reasons. How it was resurrected is a fascinating lesson in human psychology.

    The real reason you guys hold onto this Darwinian 19th century hocum, is the same reason Joe HOOKER and Huxley were collaborators with Darwin, the same reason I get messages from "Heterotic" in my email, the same reason Cher talks about "power" (and its lust) - and noticably gets angry when I mentioned Mother Tersa and true love - the same reason the gag order from the courts and on and on...... The lust for power.

    Its a theological reason.

    "This is the condemnation of the world - the world loves the darkness (death) more than the light (life) because its deeds are dark."

    Darwin gives you an intellectual place to hide out while you sort out what your really about. OK - I get it. But don't feed me the bologna that your "scientific" - if you uwere, you'd run the numbers with dispassion and not formulate Piled High and Deep nonsense non-stop.

    Give it some years, - before the Ark sails and your found in the darkness that never ends.

    Peace.

    I do wonder how the newest development in a completely unknown life-form here on Earth changes the assumptions of the person you met discussing probability. Now with another working example of life that is completely unlike "life as we [knew] it," perhaps their minds are starting to align with reality. Great post, and so relevant with the latest developments of life that is NOT carbon-based!

    jtwitten
    Wow, Andy, you managed to cram a whole bushel of unhinged into that one, while answering none of my rather reasonable questions. I do not know what Darwin thought about Paley's watch, but I do know that it is no better than an analogy, and a bad one at that. I'm afraid your probabilistic thinking is deeply flawed, essentially by your need to find "reason" and "purpose" in biology. Call it nihilism if you will, but the scientific method requires that approach. At home, you can believe what you want.

    I'll repeat myself, because I find my words so witty:
    Do not allow the vanishingly small probability of any specific set of events happening distract you from the fact that specific sets of events happen all the time.
    For the record, my "hocum" is 21st century "hocum" involving 150+ years of research, not just one guy's book.

    It is simply fallacious to extend a comparison between man-made technology and biological systems beyond that of analogy.
    Not a calculation, not a simulation without some form of directed intelligent input.

    Every machine we have on the planet proves it - explain how one gets photodiodes for worms in cells from gradual statistical change processes!

    You can't because it can't .

    If you were honest, you'd show how 20 amino acids can be arranged through population based dynamics to produce some sort of beneificial change - you can't - certainly not with randomness!

    Even the peppered moths and the beaks turns out to be genetic machinery. And the more machinery, the less likely any random process is involved. You don't get cars by kicking about metals - you construct them - genetics is constructing the constructors and designing the adaptation - IN FACT microarray studies are showing changes in genetici expression INTRA-generationally (and that has to be the case for observed rapid speciation).

    And when the ID guys do real calculations with Fermi problems - your only come back is insults - you can't show where the calculations are astray. Why?

    The only reason I can come up with is that it is your fundamental religion - a sort of pschyological fanaticism that refuses to put pencil to paper and do simple math. Your afraid - and frankly you have reason to be. Your hiding behind an increasingly vanishing fig leaf.

    PS - the Caloric theory stood for centuries. Count Rumbsford knew it was Hocum (for whom the Royal Society was formed) 60 years before the "scientific" community finally acknowledged the gross error.

    And that error involved an understanding of statistics and entropy as well...

    rholley
    Gesundheit!

    What has entropy got to do with Sir Benjamin Thompson FRS, aka Reichsgraf von Rumford (1753 – 1814)?  The concept wasn't even around when he was alive. 

    As late as the end of the 19th century, when a certain professor was challenged over repeatedly setting the examination question "What is Entropy", he replied "Yes, but every year I change the answer!"
    Robert H. Olley Quondam Physics Department University of Reading England
    Of course it was - the caloric theory held that things had internal energy in themselves - it was ancient going back to Earth, wind fire as elements.

    BT saw it was flawed when he was making cannons and noticed they heated up under friction when he was a Colonel in Bavaria I believe. Nobody listened to him either of course - their bad theology got in the way (or was it good theology - after all E=mc^2).

    Consider the wishful thinking about Mars - the canals - the face - whatever. You see allot of random things, and tricks of lighting make you see patterns where there are none.

    Now flip it around in Biology. People see goo for a cell - and say there is nothing but goo and it comes together depending on what eats what when and how and people come up with a theory of natural selection.

    Then they place the goo under scanning electron microscopes and see amazing complexity. Mental inertia and wishful thinking (there is no God, I can screw around, there is no God, I am accountable only to myself) works on the mental processes - and people continue to see randomness because it fits a belief system that is mentally beneficial - to heck with reality.

    Dispassionate science requires a brutal search for truth. If the implications are there is a creator [Mechanics, electrodynamics, entropy, probability, information packing, logic] - too bad - crunch the numbers, ask the questions, get the answers and stop trying to muzzle and brow beat those who do critical analysis and look at the numbers and try to get the message out - the canals are an illusion - the face on mars is lighting - but the cell - its not goo anymore guys - its a machine of amazing complexity.

    Tis the small things, the despised things that confound the wise.

    Gerhard Adam
    Wow, it's hard to imagine how you could get more things wrong in a single paragraph.

    A cell is not a machine, it's not even kind of a machine, it's not even close to a machine. 

    Making comparisons to illusions serves no purpose since no one ever seriously thought that there were such things, except for the same people you're claiming are the one's being rigorous about design.

    Science is dispassionate and brutal in its research mechanisms.  What is amazing is that the general superstitions held by the population at large, are what you consider factual.  What rigor was it subjected to?  Repeatedly the proposition is that there is an "intelligence" that designed life, but not a single word explaining what such "intelligence" means or how IT was created.  Instead we're simply to accept that on faith.

    It seems that the stated position is that since science doesn't know everything, then let's fall back on superstition and whatever we feel like making up. 

    To suggest that biology is "designed" is simply foolish since it would be an extremely incompetent engineer to design so many things so imperfectly.
    Your calling me an incompetent engineer Gerhard - would you care to defend that libel in court?

    I am confused by your statement - if a cell is not a machine - then it is what, a dance of the fairies?

    "What rigor was it subjected to?" Fermi problems - Fred Hoyle, noted atheist astronomer came up with 1 in 10 to the 40,000 power for the probability of life "evolving" - so he concluded, as the ancient Greeks did, that life was ever existent - that life must come from life, intelligence form intelligence. Being a hard nosed physicist, either you accept the laws of physics, or you deny them for what - fairies?

    For every action there really is an equal and opposite reaction - chemical balance, force, energy, logic - there are only 10^80 atoms in the universe, and when you perform a Fermi problem on 20 amino acids with only 30,000 proteins (and then you have to arrange and adapt and repair and construct the Proteins) - what rigor does evolution have? 200 to 1000 codons for the simplist proteins - good luck! The lowest numbers I have seen for coding have ironically come from Debemski and those are 1 in 10^150 - so you only need 10^70 universes to get life started.

    Evolution is a binary selection on survival and with genetics, thriving and populations. It does not begin to explain information packing.

    If I looked at a planet, and saw gleaming cities and nuclear rocket engines and wonderous technology, I would conclude that an advanced civilization of thinking beings formed it. It would be a logical deduction based on the facts of observation. When we see living machines - cells - we see something infinitely more sophisticated in physical operation, information packing, adaptation, energy efficiency and function than anything man has ever devised.

    Your logical conclusion then is that this is all "simple" and explained by Darwin. Who is being superstitious?

    Hank
    You threatened Gerhard with ...
    Your calling me an incompetent engineer Gerhard - would you care to defend that libel in court?
    If you are the kind of engineer he described ... 
     it would be an extremely incompetent engineer to design so many things so imperfectly.
    then I would call you an incompetent engineer too and be happy to defend it in this court you speak of, since truth is a valid defense.    I mean, open an ASME book or something.  Even the worst engineer has to get a few things right.
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    I'm the guy with a patent on a self verifying computer language compiler....

    What DNA and genetics does, and what simple cells do is infinitely beyond that technology.

    A nuclear reactor power plant, or a Saturn V rocket, or NERVA, or a robot - even a theory android robot - is trivial compared to a cell - which must self replicate, repair, and produce function. For example a photoreceptor in a worm does what our photo-multiplier/intensifier tubes do but:

    1. Much smaller
    2. Much more energy efficient
    3. Self maintaining
    4. Self creating
    5. Self adapting.
    6. Using efficient polymer materials rather than metals
    7. Self plug in
    8. and it springs from another cell which creates it and organizes it in due course!

    We are only now toying with nano-technology, and a long, long way away from anything like what cells do.

    I have a way you could prove your "truth" that would demonstrate your superior knowledge of science. Go out and make a self replicating solar powered unit to take CO2 out of the air.

    Use an initial mass the size of an acorn, and let it grow using the stuff around it automatically - and have it pump out O2

    ---- then you will be qualified to tell me how bad an engineer whoever, whatever created this living planet is.

    Just do the Fermi problem analysis with 200 to 1000 codons.... and start looking for God.

    heterotic
    Darwin didn't explain everything; how could he have?

    And yes, it is quite simple the way a cell works. It's not as complex as you make it out to be.
    "And yes, it is quite simple the way a cell works."

    Tell me the feedback mechanism that triggers a genetic adaptation - or fashion a cell from scratch materials molecule by molecule and prove it - or even simulate a virtual cell that would work on computer!

    When people have done genetic computational simulations, and Monte Carlo computations (I believe Penn State did one and has a recent paper on it) - they find as with the Fermi calculations that the probability of forming living things by chance or adapting on a chance basis is idiotically low.

    And don't forget Maxwell's non-evolution of electric charges - atoms don't evolve in any way.

    Darwinian causality is an existential causal violation - it violates informational entropy - that is to say, at every stage there is no mechanism or reason for life to "evolve" to more sophisticated forms.

    What is in fact occuring is genetic combination and a combinatorial graduated ascension from less complex forms to more complex forms in graduated stages.

    The issue is not one of fossil record, or age of universe or anything else. The real scientific issue with Darwinism is now and always has been going to cause - death and processes of death do not form life.

    Cells are infinitely more sophisticated machines than anything man has devised. They are not incompetent engineering - sorry, read your sentence too fast.

    heterotic
    This sentence is in fact, quite hilarious. Cells are no more sophisticated than a group of people working together to move boxes from point A to point B to help produce result C.
    " Cells are no more sophisticated than a group of people working together to move boxes from point A to point B to help produce result C."

    "This sentence is in fact, quite" - sad. Its a very 19th century view of things.

    So tell me, how does one move boxes from point A to point B to produce 100,000 photodiode polymers for a worm's photoreceptor cells? Explain to me the biochemistry associated with signal discrimination. Tell me the DNA codon's involved. Tell me how what enzyme and how they are triggered, that allow certain photoreceptors to discriminate blue and green light.

    Don't tell me how "simple" something is and then turn around and tell me how you cannot fully describe it. Be scientific, real - be humble!

    "This sentence is in fact, quite hilarious. Cells are no more sophisticated than a group of people working together to move boxes from point A to point B to help produce result C. "

    Exept for one thing... why would they?

    "This sentence is in fact, quite hilarious. Cells are no more sophisticated than a group of people working together to move boxes from point A to point B to help produce result C. "

    Exept for one thing... why would they?

    Mark-n-PRMantis
    Well, Mr. Holland, it seems the further you get yourself into this, the more silly it all gets... did you actually pull out the "Behe Defense?" (http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/behe.html) That goes... once you see the wonderment of the inner workings of a cell, there's nothing left but to throw up your hands and swear, with your hand on a Bible, that God did it!?

    C'mon... please... Listen, Science (in the capital first letter sense of the word) is about trying to understand how the world works. Okay, fine... God did it... your God (the nice one), my G-d (the not so nice one), whatever... now what, Mr. Holland? What have we learned? That you know the secret and I am damned to Hell?


    Science is about understanding everybody's world, not getting to know Mr. Holland better. We need conventional algorithms we can agree upon so we can continue to compile our increasing understanding. Yeah, it's a real similar thing to what DNA does, but we really don't need to know whether it, or someone, or some being thinks about it to understand how Transcription works - whoa - it is cool! 


    It *doesn't matter* if design includes directional preconception or intelligence (which is good for you, because the notion is preposterous and cannot be shown to be wrong in any way). It doesn't matter because solving that riddle teaches us very little. (I like to hear myself talk, too!) 


    By the way, if I didn't make the point the last time I couldn't hold my tongue while reading through these comments, you keep leaving the environment out of this. The 'director' of Natural Selection is not the 'genetics,' as you so amusingly put it, it is the unpredictably changing  (to the genetics at any rate) environmental factors that 'intelligently design' the course of evolution. And, on an intellectually honest level - no tricks up my sleeve, in a few weeks, I could show you that happening!!



    Natural Selection is a tool. It's like Geometry. It is a set of conventions, and equations, and data, and analyses, and critical review accumulated over human history that allow us to construct predictions for how things really work. Then, when we test them, we learn how much we know or don't know about our prediction so we can refine it. There is none of this what you believe or what I believe... only what I can show you and what you can show me... Show me your Bible, I'll show you mine - much more brutality, less love -- then we can read Winnie the Pooh together (there is some great science in there!) 



    But, if you really want to be taken seriously in a *scientific* context, you need to at least respect, if not adhere to the conventions of the field. It's the way it is done.... and it works. If you'd like, I can give you lots of references that will explain how all those little amazing things happen in a cell!

    What does a cell do - two of them form you and me - they have all the information for the super computer brains, the automated repair mechanisms, the sophisticated light gathering devices. Take a hard nosed mechanistic scientific view of life - and consider who much information is packed in DNA.

    Look at single celled creatures (and they are creatures) - from a force, charge, chemistry, information packing point of view, they are far and away the most sophisticated machines on the planet. They are far higher intelligence than we have yet constructed - even if we had talking computers - those computers would not be as sophisticated because they cannot self replicate, or form a planet from dust into a living world with a balanced ecosystem.

    Gerhard Adam
    In every post your assertions for intelligence have one central premise; if man hasn't created it, then it must be created by a super intelligence greater than man.  In addition, simply because humans can't replicate such a system doesn't presume an external intelligence.

    By equating biology with machinery (especially regarding natural selection) you're completely caught up with the notion that everything has purpose and requires direction.   As I've said before, cells are not machines and simply because you don't understand how they work or came to be doesn't make them machines either.

    Once again your argument regarding probabilities begs the question.  Like so many others you presume that all events are equally likely (and therefore can be treated randomly), in addition you also presume that they must all occur simultaneously in a singular event of creation.  Neither is true.



    So a photoreceptor cell that takes photons, acts as a sophisticated photodiode - is repeatable and outputs a voltage for a neural network isn't a machine?

    Then it is a creation of God?
    Is it magic?

    Hey, Fred Hoyle, Albert Einstein - plenty of Atheists have done these Fermi problem calculations. They did not believe in deity - but they did come to a notion of an intelligence simple and compound pervading the universe at least as principle. Fred Hoyle thought perhaps life had to be eternal - again - going to cause.

    If all events are not equally likely (and they are not), then there is a bias or direction. A probability is a perfectly valid metric to describe the degree to which something must be directed to come out with a logic result. Its the only good metric we have (Heisenburg et. al.).

    The true problem with Darwinian biology is that people take open systems, perform dramatic one dimensional experiments and confirm (based on confirmation bias) a Darwinian outcome. But all outcomes have in fact genetics - which is a combinatorial building block mechanism that can intrinsically adapt.

    However, to have the genetic mechanism that intrinsically adapts, one has to have the informational process or logos (logic) for it to do so.

    Gerhard Adam
    So a photoreceptor cell that takes photons, acts as a sophisticated photodiode - is repeatable and outputs a voltage for a neural network isn't a machine?
    What you are using is an analogy, and whether it fits completely or not is irrelevant since it isn't an accurate description of the biology.  You seem to think that if you can describe something in terms that resemble human systems that it somehow bridges the gap and allows you to ask questions.
    Unless you're prepared to discuss biology in terms of biology then you're point is always going to go askew.
    A probability is a perfectly valid metric to describe the degree to which something must be directed to come out with a logic result. Its the only good metric we have (Heisenburg et. al.).
    Except that if you don't know what the possible output likelihoods are, then you can't simply invent a probability out of thin air.  In addition you miss the obvious.  It doesn't matter what the probabilities are, any more than they do to the lottery-winner holding a winning ticket.  But you compound your problem why suggesting that each and every reaction must be equally probable, instead of recognizing that particular events may well accelerate activity in specific directions and radically modify the probabilities.  The trouble is that you're insisting on a calculation for which you have no basis.
    But all outcomes have in fact genetics - which is a combinatorial building block mechanism that can intrinsically adapt.
    It isn't that it CAN adapt, it's that it DOES adapt.  There is a tremendous difference since the former implies an intentional direction, while the latter is simply a function of selection (i.e. the "last man standing" syndrome).

    What you and many others keep forgetting is that biology doesn't have to work perfectly, but rather that it only has to be "good enough" to survive into the next generation.  Over time some imperfections may be selected out, but it isn't a requirement.

    Cher and Gerhard,

    Still... you haven't addressed the main issue Andy and I have made. You have to seriously address the information content problem. There is 3GB worth of information in every cell in your body. Don't give us (again) the excuse that it's only one of an incalculable number of possible sequences... I asked you, Cher, for your wildest optimistic answer for the values of the two divergent series, and you didn't respond. But it can't be good news for you, because the genetic alphabet can result in gibberish just as easily as the English alphabet can. There are rules to both English grammar and the genetic code. I don't see why the analogy between the genetic language and any other language (English, binary, etc.) is flawed. Help me see why.

    Gerhard: "In every post your assertions for intelligence have one central premise; if man hasn't created it, then it must be created by a super intelligence greater than man."

    So what? Aren't you doing the same thing in reverse? If man hasn't created it, certainly God hasn't either?

    Gerhard: "Once again your argument regarding probabilities begs the question. Like so many others you presume that all events are equally likely (and therefore can be treated randomly), in addition you also presume that they must all occur simultaneously in a singular event of creation. Neither is true."

    But that's not "begging the question" (circular reasoning). In the genetic code, all combinations are equally likely, because the genetic letters do not have a propensity to self-arrange in any particularly order (other than their pairs, of course, but I'm talking about one side of the strand which has the same information content as the other side). Or are you saying that the genetic code for a liver, for some as-yet-unknown reason, has a propensity to self-assemble? Maybe that's the case, but it's not circular reasoning to argue against that... it could just be wrong, but not circular.

    Also, entropy really works... how would a non-reproducing DNA fragment survive in what must be the furious pace of nature trying different combinations of genetic sequences to find one that works? What magic force is it that keeps half of a potentially-working DNA strand around until the rest of it can be assembled? Even assuming you're correct, that the assembly of life-giving code can happen over some long period of time, why should we assume that the forcing bringing the rest of the DNA together don't also work to tear the non-working as-yet-unfinished DNA strand apart? After all, if you're busy trying DNA combinations, you need those handy raw materials.

    And here's another staggering problem... information density. How many years have humans endeavored to increase information density? In the 50's and 60's we had computer punch cards. I remember our first computer, the Apple II, had a cassette tape drive. Then we went to 5.25" floppies. Then decent hard drives and 3.5" disks. Then CDs. Meanwhile information density in memory chips was getting better and better. This whole process has taken, say, 60 years of intense effort from intelligently-directed human beings... engineers at IBM, Toshiba, Motorola, TI, etc. And guess what we have to show for it? The information density in a single cell is 12 trillion times (12,000,000,000,000) greater than our best chips (see "The Cell's Design: How Chemistry Reveals the Creator's Artistry" by Fazale Rana). How does that kind of information density just happen without intelligence? Seems to me the burden of proof on this one is in your court, since I can show you how it happens with intelligence (I just did... many man-hours of engineering). If you've got another way, do tell.

    Now it may be that some natural process will be discovered that somehow accounts for what appears to be amazingly intelligent design. Or, it may be that some transcendent God created us all, all the animals, the plants, the very conditions of the planet and solar system and galaxy that we live in. Either way, it's faith. You have to admit that, because neither you nor we can "prove" our positions 100%. We can show evidences, but there's not absolute proof.

    As Einstein said, "There are only two ways to live your life. One is as though nothing is a miracle. The other is as though everything is a miracle."

    You might say it's too convenient that God has set-up the universe in a way that requires faith, where His existence cannot be 100% proven. Okay, I'll grant you that. But the best selling book in the history of man, purportedly written through men by the Spirit of God, has an answer for that. It's God's purpose in this universe to deal with the problem of evil and free will. If we were all robots programmed to love God, then we wouldn't have the free will that produces true love. A convenient answer? Sure it is! But that doesn't make it false.

    I gather you've each chosen the side of "no miracles," and that's your choice to make. And while the expected value of your choice works heavily against you (that is, if you're wrong then you've got infinitely more to lose than we do if we're wrong), I agree that's not a compelling reason, by itself, for you to change your mind. But I hope that it's enough to at least convince you to some day take an open-minded look at intelligent design as at least a possibility. Like former atheist Anthony Flew, perhaps you'll come to recognize the evidence for intelligent design in what appears to be a most miraculous universe.

    heterotic
    You have completely missed my point. I told you that I will not "guess" as to how many possible permutations of bases to form a living thing, because there's no way to tell if it is accurate. Even at this point, we don't know what the first living organism was - we can only speculate. We don't have an accurate accounting for the state of the atmosphere, the exact gravitational pull, the state of our magnetic umbrella at the time - all things that play key roles in the formation of the first DNA or RNA strand(s). We don't even know if there was more than one nucleic acid formed during this time! If you remember correctly, Darwin speculated that there was either one or a few organisms to begin with. This is still an unknown.

    God and/or Intelligent Design does not provide answers. It gives people a reason to stop looking, and accept an illogical explanation that requires no explanation of its own. Like I've said thousands of times, there is no reason to believe in God. Believing in anything metaphysical, mystical or divine is nonsensical.

    Miracles are subjective. Like most of the reasons proponents of any religion or ID give; miracles are a personal projection onto an event or object. The universe itself is just action and reaction. We might say something like, the K-2 boundary was a fortunate event, but it wasn't fortunate nor unfortunate. It was just an event. Anything we use to describe this mass extinction that isn't scientific is subjective.

    The universe isn't miraculous for this very reason. The universe just is. Do I think that it's amazing that the actions and reactions of particles building over billions of years has led to the life I live? Absolutely, but I'm intelligent enough to realize that it is my opinion, not a fact. Even living with the projection of awe and wonder onto everything in our universe doesn't require a creator or a designer.

    The only unanswered questions I have that will probably never be answered is why there was energy to begin with and what lies beyond on our universe that causes this seemingly never-ending expansion. I certainly don't need to answer that question with someone illogical to quiet the questions in my mind. In fact, I can't. I tried that when I was a child, and it didn't work.
    Gerhard Adam
    Sorry, but simply invoking magic, miracles, and divine entities answers no questions at all.
    You could accept as Hoyle did, intelligence simple and compound intrinsic to the universe as principle - and that would be consistent with informational and organizational entropy.

    ========================================================================================
    The Judea Christian God is not hocus pocus magic - God is 100% natural. He is especially natural.

    That is the point of 4000+ years of religion. God is above nature in transcendent qualities such as "love" which is giving without expectation of return - and faith - which is _loyalty_ beyond reason - and Spirit which is pure motivation above mecahnism.

    For example, God hardened Pharoah's heart by revealing the natural events associated with the Santorini explosion at every phase, including the CO2 gas that killed the first born of Egypt (who all slept on the ground to be close to their ancestors) - while the Israelites were standing eating the passover feast, and passed over the cloud even as death passed over them.

    At every stage, Pharoah (pride and exaltation) saw the universe and thought - oh - its simply this or simply that, and at every phase Moses called for him to repent of his hardness of heart - and at every phase God hardened Pharoah's heart by revealing himself in nature as nature by nature.

    And he revealed is transcendence above nature by revealing to Moses - who was humble - the key to escaping disease and death and Egypt.

    Gerhard Adam
    The Judea Christian God is not hocus pocus magic - God is 100% natural. He is especially natural.
    ... and therein lies your problem.  While I don't care what you personally believe, but what I object to is that you want to invoke this kind of belief as a scientific principle which is disingenous, at best.  The point is that you have never been interested in the biology or the probabilities.  You've always accepted the principle that there was divine intervention so your arguments ring hollow and it is clear that you aren't interesting in discussion as much as preaching.
    I was responding to someone who asked questions as to why I would believe in God, and was careful to differentiate between scientific answers and theological ones. Hence the ============== separator.
    ========================================================================
    So lets talk biology:

    "The chromophore photoisomerization is the beginning of a remarkable cascade that causes electrical signals (called action potentials) to be triggered in the optic nerve. In response to the chromophore photoisomerization, rhodopsin causes the activation of hundreds of transducin molecules. These, in turn, cause the activation of cGMP phosphodiesterase (by removing its inhibitory subunit), an enzyme that degrades the cyclic nucleotide, cGMP.

    A single photon can result in the activation of hundreds of transducins, leading to the degradation of hundreds of thousands of cGMP molecules. cGMP molecules serve to open non selective, cyclic nucleotide gated (CNG) ion channels in the membrane, so reduction in cGMP concentration serves to close these channels. This means that millions of sodium ions per second are shut out of the cell, causing a voltage change across the membrane. This hyperpolarization of the cell membrane causes a reduction in the release of neurotransmitter, the chemical that interacts with the nearby nerve cell, in the synaptic region of the cell. This reduction in neurotransmitter release ultimately causes an action potential to arise in the nerve cell.

    All this happens because a single photon entered the fray. In short order, this light signal is converted into a structural signal, more structural signals, a chemical concentration signal, back to a structural signal, and then back to a chemical concentration signal leading to a voltage signal which then leads back to a chemical concentration signal.

    This incredible cellular signal transduction design is the biochemical foundation in image-forming eyes. But it is also found in the third eye. In fact, the third eye includes two antagonistic light signaling pathways in the same cell. Blue light causes the hyperpolarizing response as described above, but green light causes a depolarizing response. How is this done? By the inhibition of the cGMP phosphodiesterase enzyme. Specifically, there are two opsins, one that is sensitive to blue light which activates the cGMP phosphodiesterase enzyme, and another that is sensitive to green light which inhibits the cGMP phosphodiesterase enzyme. It appears that initially these are two separate pathways and they come together at the point of influencing the cGMP phosphodiesterase enzyme."

    Simple - ehhhh?????? Come on!

    That is a simple eye - a third eye! Reality is that you have to balance forces, voltages, structures etc, etc, etc....

    Oh and then there is this interesting tid bit:

    "As had been noticed, the code’s [DNA's] arrangement reduces the effects of mutations and reading errors. They often result in no change to the amino acid sequence, or merely a slight change as a similar amino acid is used in place of the original amino acid. And the degree of this safeguarding is now better understood. As one research study found, the DNA code is “one in a million” in terms of efficiency in minimizing these effects. This structure found within the DNA code was “unexpected and still cry out for explanation.”

    Several other studies have confirmed these findings and yet other studies have discovered even more unique and special properties of the code. For instance, the code’s degeneracy means that it is capable of carrying other messages, in addition to the protein amino acid sequence encoding. That is, such a code can, in theory, allow the DNA sequence to carry multiple, parallel, messages, and this is precisely what researchers have found. For instance, the DNA sequence tells proteins where to bind to the DNA structure and where to splice its duplicate copy that is created when creating new proteins. The DNA sequence also determines the structure of that duplicate copy. In addition to allowing for multiple messages, the DNA code also reduces the effects of harmful errors by increasing the chances that such errors will result in a stop codon.

    What is important for our purposes here is not only that the DNA code has these capabilities, but the degree as well. Research has found that the DNA code is a very rare code, even when compared to other codes which already have the error correcting capability."

    BOTTOM LINE - Your theory is dying - its dying just as the Caloric theory died, just as the Cosmic Geocentric theory died - just as all bad theories accepted for decades or centuries die - a slow, painful, agonizing death through thousands upon thousands of cuts.

    Force, energy, voltage, current, logic, chemistry - all these real sciences along with real probabilistic analysis and Fermi problems to gauge the level of directed assembly in "evolution" - are all killing the theory.

    You can only isolate biology and bandy about "simple" for so long. Eventually reality bites - and it bites hard.
    ========================================================
    'but this is the condemnation of the world, men preferred the darkness to the light because their deeds were dark' - you prefer mechanisms of death to explain life - because you do not yet realize that life is light - and the light shines in the darkness, and the darkened mind - darkened eye cannot comprehend its beauty, love, goodness and joy. True love that conquers all....... Herein lies OUR problem in the world - 'if the eye is darkened, great is that darkness.'

    Mark-n-PRMantis
    um... er... really? COOL!!!!!!!!!
    you have any sort of data or substantiation for any of that? I mean, whew! what an exciting story. I heard one about a girl who walked through a mirror, ate a cracker, shrunk and conversed with a rhyming caterpillar - you would probably like that. If you would like, I could read it to you enough times that maybe you will believe it is true. i'm afraid I couldn't replicate any of it though - wish I could!

    (By the way, Moses saying he knew how to do things better than everyone else, wasn't very humble - i mean, really... Oh, and now, these guys called "Doctors" -- they learned, incidentally through scientific questioning, how to actually *fix* a hardened heart. If only Pharaoh would have used a little science back then)
    The same questions were discussed in two other recent articles.

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/truth_universally_acknowledged/ringsid...

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/mark_changizi/%E2%80%9C_evolution_fast...

    I believe Gerhard took the high ground with the opinion that after an event has occurred the probabilities change.

    Andy seems to have missed out on the opinions of Schrödinger and the third law of thermodynamics. It isn't his fault. A lot of the best science isn't taught in college or even written in the text books.

    "The book is "What Is Life" and dates from the 1940s. It talks about the nonrandom processes, the thermodynamics of creation, and how the odds improve over time.

    A lot of disagreements about evolution are found in biology and geology. When cosmology is added, many debates disappear.

    Opinions change over time. First the Earth was the center of everything. Then the sun was the center. Later the galaxy was the center. Now there isn't any recognized center.

    Not long ago a group of scientists tried to prove with statistics that there is only one living Earth in our universe. They didn't try to say how many universes there are or have been.

    Quantum mechanics on the other hand embraces the Many World Theory with extra dimensions and all sorts of things that aren't found in biology and geology. Experimental data doesn't make sense without the many worlds and Sum Of Paths. Feynman’s sum of paths goes everywhere including the past and future.

    If you allow the opinion of Richard Feynman that antimatter goes backward in time, or the research at CERN about Time Reversal of neutral mesons in CPT, then the cosmology of evolution creates a blog space that is large enough to lose most of the arguments.

    Engineers have an unusual place in society between the theoretical and the practical. If an opinion is offered about atheism, then it is just an opinion. I didn’t hear any one offer proof.

    Once the cosmology of many universes, or the quantum space of many worlds and many dimensions is included in evolution, then it is reasonable to ask on what basis an opinion is offered.

    Certainly since the time of Heisenberg, there has been some uncertainty about these questions.

    DVDs polarize light in one wavelength. Shrimp eyes apparently polarize it evenly in all directions and are being studied for that reason - to improve data storage (tremendously). Pretty sophisticated given any set of random processes - and shrimp - rather low on the scale of creatures. But they have too - they are seeing in a much darker and differential environment.

    Engineers do have a practical understanding of science - and they have a practical knowledge for how complex things can indeed be.

    Darwin cringed at the complexity of the eye he saw, but noted the worm eye was "simple."

    Had he an electron scanning microscope and knowledge of function - whether worms or shrimp - he would have cringed far, far more - he did not have a good feeling or understanding of just how complex machinery has to be to work - and how complex ancient life forms eyes (trilobites being very sophisticated) were because the planet was once very dark.
    ================================
    "I didn’t hear any one offer proof. " - Read Mark Chapter 8 and look up Visual Agnosia. Very interesting - the first documented case of VA from a person born blind and having his sight restored.

    But hey - if you aren't willing to treat the subject with scholarly investigation, attention to detail and respect - you'll never gain anything from it.

    "If the chances of DNA functioning properly was so low, why is it that we can place a centi tube with a strand of isolated DNA along with a gene from another organism in a centrifuge, give it a spin and have an organism with functioning recombinant DNA?"

    I believe this is the basis of the article?

    The answer is a simple one: because they're existing strands. If the bible-nut was trying to debunk evolutionary theory, he certainly is wrestling with a proven fact. But if he was trying to discredit abiogenesis, he would have had a strong argument had he been able to cite sources.

    The problem with the argument is that while DNA indeed consists of only a handful of proteins, there are too numerous a number of naturally-occurring proteins that the mathematical probability that those specific proteins would arrange themselves into the correct order to form a living object are infinitesimally small.

    Andy, I'm willing to treat the subject with scholarly investigation, attention to detail and respect. What was it you thought that I was expecting to gain from it?

    The story of Mark didn't begin in chapter 8, or end there, and Visual Agnosia is not in dispute, at least not in this message.

    Where science falls short is the failure to explain or even to attempt an explanation of how a big bang or other creation could occur, what preceded it, and how the entropy was made low in the past so it can be increasing now. Surely for evolution theories these things are the most fundamental questions.

    Engineering falls short too because it fails to call science to account for the origin of low entropy.

    So I believe you put up a good fight, but left out the most convincing evidence.

    Education in science and engineering leaves out some of the most important knowledge, because it impacts on our understanding of energy supplies and how we use energy. The missing science has been available for a long time, but is difficult to find and not politically correct to teach (except in blog space). You only find it here.

    It takes a life time of reading original works from pioneers in science like Schrödinger and Feynman to discover the missing parts and understand why they are left out of college studies. What we get from Feynman and Schrödinger is the science of how time can go backward or forward, and how entropy can decrease or increase. We also get many more dimensions than the ones we see, and calculation rules about how subatomic particles travel into all of those other times and spaces before they return to our world.

    The message I would like to deliver is that the boundaries on this discussion are a lot larger than the comments are embracing, and the science that describes the larger boundaries is decades old.

    I’m of the opinion that there were other universes before ours, and more universes existing at this time beyond our view. Also I expect there are other living worlds now and were others in the past in other universes. So the space time my statistics is large enough to contain any of the probability arguments.

    Before Mark chapter 8, there was Ezekiel Chapter 1. From Ezekiel we get a report of two flying machines made of bright shiny metal landing in a farming community of illiterate manual labor, on the water front at Nippur, Iraq on 31 July 593 BC.

    One of the flying machines went down in flames with a loud rumbling noise, a cloud of smoke, and an electrical fire in the high voltage engine. The other flying machine came to the rescue commanded by someone who said he was God. Ezekiel was under age for the job he was doing. His education was cut short 10 years by war, and he didn’t read or write very well. So I ask you, is it likely that Ezekiel saw flying machines, or did he just imagine it.

    The part of the science that is not taught in college is necessary to understand the workings of the flying machine that went down in flames. For the other flying machine Ezekiel didn’t give enough information to describe the technology.

    A lot of claims are made that don’t impress me. Fuzzy photos don’t help at all.

    The science of Boltzmann, Einstein, Schrödinger, Heisenberg, Dirac, and Feynman are telling me the same things that Ezekiel was saying about the wheelworks machine.

    With scholarly investigation, attention to detail and respect, they are saying the boundaries of your discussion are lot larger than the concepts these several comments are exploring.

    The conversation continues at:

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/philosophical_scientist/late_night_ram...

    for those who would like to know what other science was left out of college.

    I think everyone is missing that lack of information is not evidence of a divine being or a creator.

    Not knowing the origin of something does not make it magical or mystical. It is simply an unknown.

    It seems to me though, that when one rightly points out hey - we have between 200 and 1000 codons involved in creating certain "simple" amino acids for a particular mechanistic task - and get probabilities associated with randomness on the order of lotteries in which the balls would be the atoms of the entire known universe, and people don't delve into that reality - it begs the question, is the theory of Evolution a religion?

    I think it was St. John Chrysostom who called religion the science of sciences. We seem to have a secular science of sciences in evolution - where evolution is the a priori answer and all other questions cannot question its authority because it is taken for granted.

    Gerhard Adam
    Your understanding of the probabilities is wrong, your understanding of biology is wrong, and your statement of science being a religion is wrong.  In short, virtually everything you've said is wrong and yet, it still doesn't make your notion of a creator correct.
    >>>>>>"I’m of the opinion that there were other universes before ours .... so my statistics is large enough to contain any of the probability arguments."

    Actually that is a fallacy - because in fact statistics tend to diverge - which is the point of entropy. Its at every step - you have to get very lucky to get order in statistical system (clusters) and they are not generally repeatable.

    But if you do take Mark Chapter 8 seriously with regard to visual agnosia, and other things, then there is a more critical issue with respect to cutting neurons that are not useful to provide a clear view.

    Once you get an understanding of relativity, it isn't necessary to choose between evolution and a divine creator. Relativity removes the argument about time and the age of Earth. So you can have both creator and evolution. Or you can make an argument based on arbitrary assumptions.

    I would argue that evolution of life is occurring on Mars now, based on the microbes that went with the scientific probes. People who worked on those programs are not claiming to be divine.

    They tried to kill all of the microbes before launch date, but it resulted in too many equipment failures. So they settled for killing most of the microbes, and taking a chance on the others.

    It is quite possible that something like that happened on Earth. Nearly all of life on Earth has the same genetic language and the same genetic alphabet. The other small segment of primitive life has an older language and an older alphabet of the same type, but with fewer words and fewer rules, that lead to a lower success rate in replication.

    You could argue that every living thing we have examined is derived from just one single event in the distant past, maybe on Earth, or maybe some other place. Evolution theory is rather hard pressed to say why there are not more genetic languages or more genetic alphabets in different stages of development.

    Here is a link to a previous discussion about probabilities, with comments about Schrödinger and the Third Law of Thermodynamics.

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/mark_changizi/%E2%80%9C_evolution_fast...

    The job of science is to make opinions about unknown things in ways that can be tested. It seems likely that a prediction of life originating elsewhere is an opinion that can eventually be tested.

    I believe it was already stated that a believer in God/divinity/creator etc does not need to deny evolution to believe in their higher power.

    Relativity isn't evidence for a creator, though.

    Relativity - in the Einstein sense - is absolutism - everything being relative to the speed of light. The term was coined from Galileo's error (along with Copernicus). In reality - the speed of light, or more properly C, provides THE metric for space-time relativistic comparisons.

    Fascinating the timelessness of light.... even created light.

    Einstein's absolute constant light speed c, is under attack, since 1993, when Einstein was proven wrong about quantum wave entanglement. To hold light speed completely constant requires infinite power at every point in space. So the constancy of light speed will definitely be over turned, in favor of a light speed that is nearly constant in most places much of the time.

    The metric for space time is constructed from the g(uv) of the coordinate system, not from light speed. Multilinear analysis is the place to find the mathematics. Here is a link to the volume I use often.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Multilinear-Analysis-Students-Engineering-Scienc...

    http://www.amazon.com/Multilinear-analysis-students-engineering-science/...

    Maybe you remember Einstein was working with technology from 1916. Considering what the other technology from 1916 looked like, it is not a bad idea to deliver him to the antique dealers and move on to a modern view of science.

    About 30 serious attempts have been made to improve on Einstein's work, and many of those predict the experimental data as well as Einstein did. Accuracy of measurements is not great enough to say which theory is best.

    We know for sure that Einstein's general relativity contains structural errors, that fail to describe a black hole correctly.

    **** "the black hole solutions from Einstein’s field equations shows the theory predicts a black hole to contain no volume" ***

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/hammock_physicist/cosmic_flash_memory

    We need to have space travel capabilities to test the new theories and discover the next steps in understanding general relativity.

    ---------------------------------------

    From your earlier comments I would say that for people who live in 4 dimensions, any actions that originate in 5 dimensions ( Kaluza–Klein et al ) would be miraculous, although those actions might be considered a work of technology in the 5 dimensional world.

    The 5D people have the same response to actions from a 6D world, although by now they should have caught on to the 6D concept.

    I under stated the case, because most of science in high energy physics is now supporting a 10D model of local space time and a 12D cosmology.

    It doesn't end there. A unified field string theory requires 26 dimension unless a special case is claimed of super symmetry. That's not the end of it either. There are serious theories of 52 and 208 dimensions. I'm not saying you will find a divine creator in 26 dimensions or 208 dimensions of supernatural space time.

    What I'm saying is that we are very small. We live in something like a net of 4 dimensions, surrounded by things we don't understand.

    To get an understanding for the next level of science, we will need to develop ability to travel between stars and measure the space and time near black holes and neutron stars. That requires a minimum of 6 dimensions ( three of space and three of time). Until then we are stuck with the antique theories of a previous century.

    When we achieve star travel and the time travel that goes with it in the same technology, the questions you asked and the issues you raised will not be answered in 6, 10, or 26 dimensions.

    Those discussions will always go with us to the next level.

    Poor Charles Darwin was working from 19th Century technology, and had he a scanning electron microscope to see how complex even a third eye is, he would have agreed with his highly esteemed (in his own eyes) teacher, William Paley - that when you stumble upon a watch, you know it was designed.....

    Interesting the GW Carver's first request of God the Father, whom he met as a flower as a boy, was to find a knife so that he might carve William Paley's watch. He promptly found a rusted knife in a log from the encounter, carved the gears of a clock, and learned that someone had to continuously wind it to make it go. His first biology lesson in entropy delivered from God the Father the Almighty.

    "The heavens declare the glory of God; and the firmament sheweth his handywork. Day unto day uttereth speech, and night unto night sheweth knowledge. There is no speech nor language, where their voice is not heard."

    Even science. How many saw the star, and how many bothered to follow it?

    Oh well.

    Search for intelligent life everywhere - except right under one's own feet!

    Fred Phillips
    If there's an omnipotent God, it was a piece of cake for Him to make me believe He does not exist. I suppose He had a good reason. God's will, Andy - why are you messing with it?
    About Entropy, I believe you largely missed the point of creation energy, or maybe you just rejected the Third law of Thermodynamics as described by Boltzmann 1899, and Schrödinger 1945. That information is key to the understanding of energy and the situation we are in now with fossil fuels.

    Thermodynamics as I learned in college and you learned in college is defective and incomplete. That deficiency is deliberate and beneficial to a status quo. Here is a link to some of the missing parts.

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/philosophical_scientist/late_night_ram...

    In particular the topic about radiant energy focusing shows a very well known way to move energy from a cold source to a hot destination without expending any work, or discharging any energy to a lower temperature. So the popular concept of entropy is incomplete and misleading in the way it is taught.

    A simple experiment that most people have done with a magnifying glass makes utter nonsense of the explanations that are give to us about why we have to struggle with energy shortages and pollution.

    The contest is between good science and bad science, those who are looking to the future and those who are clinging to the past, not between science and religion. With science and religion giving opinions of each other, all you get is an argument that never ends. Another link is here.

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/truth_universally_acknowledged/blog/to...

    http://www.scientificblogging.com/truth_universally_acknowledged/ringsid...

    With science you eventually get a prediction that can be tested.

    When someone tells me about God and divine creation, I ask where did God come from and how did he get so much power.? To give any type of answer you need more than 4 dimensions of space and time, more than one universe, and a concept of time that can go forward and backward continually in different dimensions.

    A lot of bright young scholars have asked the important questions during my experience of more than 20 years in universities, and more than 40 years in private industry and government service. What they are saying is that the teaching of science is missing some vital components in the origin of the universe and the understanding of energy.

    While biology has been arguing miniscule issues with you of a history that can not be tested, the pioneers of physical science and astronomy have been offering the frame work for a new understanding of energy.

    From Schrödinger and Boltzmann we get a correct and complete view of Entropy (Third Law of Thermodynamics ) that can increase or decrease depending on the different numbers of random and non random energy states. Feynman gave us a science of time (CPT , Time Reversal) that can go backward and forward for different particles continuously. Quantum mechanics gave us many hidden dimensions we can't see, also many worlds with particles that travel between the worlds. Cosmology has given us relativity of space and time, expressed in the light cone that provides a frame work to contain many universes. Optics gave us experimental proof of quantum entanglement and a science of how particles are connected together when they are miles apart.

    So, from the previous paragraph, when someone tells me about God and divine creation, I reply that modern science has provided the necessary frame work to explore those topics and is open to any predictions that can eventually be tested by scientific principles.

    Every time I hear science and religion giving opinions of each other, I really wonder what type of science and religion is involved and is all of this leading to predictions that can be tested.

    When you solve a mathematical problem like calculus, there is usually more than one possible answer. To choose the best answer, a boundary condition must be met. You have to know what the boundary is.

    I notice in this conversation that the several people have gotten different answers from different boundaries that are imposed, and none of those answers are likely to the best one, because the boundaries are not set wide enough to contain the question or the answer.

    The bright young scholars from my experience received really good answers to their questions for many decades from all sorts of university professors, research scientists, and high school teachers. Then there was no follow up or encouragement to explore the missing parts of science. The teachers know what is missing, and will tell you if you ask, but that's as far as they are allowed to go. The next step is left for you to choose.

    Information is certainly capable of overcoming energetic entropy - that is the point. However an abundance of energy does not overcome informational entropy. It tends to make things more random - going from instability to instability - consider Poincare.

    The proof is the Fermi-Pasta-Ullam problem - where a very small amount of information introduced as a non-linearity can overcome a highly energetic instability and immediately return it to the normal mode.

    This occurred historically in 4D when Jesus rebuked the winds and the waves and they calmed - God had become man, the Divine nature was asleep in the back of the boat (according to ancient Church Fathers).

    Technically this is possible, but it requires infinite point information of state. So Jesus Christ is the only begotten Word of God, and where the Son is there the Father is also.

    "There is no speech nor language, where their voice is not heard." - even science and physics.

    It's not often I get off leash long enough to chase topics for entertainments sake.
    I came across this thread well too late to get into the thick.
    But, I must admit, it's one of the most hilarious reads I've had in a long, long time.

    Well worth a few minutes to toss penny into a cold deep well.

    Though I have utmost respect for Bigheads, and even more for bigheads with nice eyes.
    I'm amazed at how all you rational types get caught with the same old tricks over and over and over.

    Lets put some low-brow perspective on all of this.
    Creationism (all variants) is religion. Even the more High falutin semi-educateds that think it's slick to market this junk as 'Intelligent Design" eventually bow to the notion that 'revelation' is the final factor. More specifically, Creationism, though part and parcel of any active theism, is as we often see it, Christianity. Creationism as it is commonly argued in the U.S. is by and large resurgent Christian evangelism. The baby boomer blowback from 60s born-agains. the old Cumbaya gang with mortgages.

    The thesis is simple. God did it. God does it, And when I do what I want to do because that's what I think God wants, I do better than you and you got no reason to bitch. I should be able to tell you what to do because I understand god's will and you don't. Do what I say.

    It pisses people off, when they see things done, that they don't want done, and have no authority to make it stop.
    It pisses them off even more when you look them in the face and refuse to bow to the badge they think they wear.
    They want Ascendency. They crave Control. They crave authority due to righteousness.

    They crave for the old days when 'God Fearing' was a synonym for 'Right Thinking'. these damn furriners in the turbans, don't think like us. I'ma get sacrificed to Allah on a bloody stone. woe is me. this littl brown guys that talk about infinities, and Cycles of Brahma. Thats creepy. who knows what they do in their bedrooms. woe is me.

    Lets see where this authority comes from.
    There is a God. This god embodies 'Good'. that which is not of god, is 'Bad'.
    This god has rules. these rules are written by the inspired, interpreted by the anointed, and enforced by the righteous.
    To start, you take a collection of early philosophical texts, tweak the hell out of the translations,
    Hold a few big conferences to nitpick which translations you gonna keep, and which your gonna run a propaganda campaign to vilify. Then you claim that this book is "The Word" and then you claim that a specific person, and his delegates are the interpreters, and enforcers of the 'Word". Then you throw piles and piles of money and lives into a fifth column movement and recruit a few Sovereign rulers. the result, is a storybook, and a few thousand pages of surviving 'expert' testimony.
    For Catholics, this is easy. It's all rolled up in a nice circular logic that starts, and ends with "the Shoes of the FIsherman".
    For others, it's a tad more problematic depending on which version of the bible and which charismatic you happen to get caught up with.

    See, the only thing a christian has on you, is the threat that you gonna burn if you don't think, and do what he wants you to. To prove that you don't gotta burn, it needs be proven that God can save you.
    To prove that Only God can save you, it needs be proven that God manipulates things all the time so that the good ones get saved. That's what 'prayer' is. God is listening. and under the correct conditions, God will reach out his mighty hand, and mess with the probabilities of a future event so that it will happen the way you want instead of the way it was gonna. So here we get the hole determinism thing. Is the universe on autopilot? Everything, moving in a choreographed dance with the rules already in place? Can you mess with it? can you trust it? If course, Omnipotence is a neat thing. we got movies about that.all that reaching in and granting prayers and wishes and the like, and messing about with cause and effect. Makes for great scripts.

    Of course the problem with all that, is All these 'Good' people, want to stop the 'Bad' people from doin 'Bad' things.
    And not just someday. Now.
    Christians want validation, so they can get authority. Now.
    Not next year, next century, or next millenium.
    That means their power must manifest Now. which means they gotta be believed Now.
    None of this wishy washy, 'I don't know yet' scientific crap. That don't give them any leverage.
    So, to quell the arguments, they coopt the words. they try to weasel into the cracks of semantics looking for ways to FUD up the place so that their 'simple' answer looks better.
    "God is. Do what He Says. If you don't know what He wants, Ask Me."

    All this garbage, every word of it, is part of a campaign to legislate this passel of nuveau resurgent morality.
    Christians are the holders of 'Truth'. and This Truth, only This Truth should be the law of the land.
    They want to teach it their kids, and co-opt every public resource they can grab, from police to schools, to propagandize and bully everybody else. "praise the Lord, and pass the ammunition".

    I don't get how all of this adolescent chicanery gets all this press.
    To battle 'Science'. they try to redefine the very word itself into something that can get argued.
    To battle the declarations of 'Scientists'. they try to redefine the process into something that is 'broken' that they can fix.

    It's no longer just amusing the way religionists constantly try to hijack the word "Fact".
    It means, no more than 'demonstrable, and replicable within currently known constraints"
    You can't 'fix' Science. Science is broken. Science is supposed to be broken.
    You can't battle the sum total of a pile of questions cum, conjectures, cum hypotheses, cum theories, cum provisional working assumptions that all add up to no more than "This is what I think I found today. and this is what I think it means."

    This, somehow being supplanted by the 'Simpler"..... Back, oh some 2000 years ago, there were some guys that said they talked to God. This is what they said he said, and this is what a few thousand other people think they may have mean't. And every word of mouth and translation since has been divinely guided so that what I read today, is exactly what god said. and I believe most of it, but some of it is allegory, and some of it is analogy, and some of it is kind of old fashioned. But there are parts I'm sure are the word of god, and he says you better listen to me, or your gonna burn.

    The Guy the got all hackled up because nobody bit on his strange twist in the definition of 'Design' into a synonym for
    "That which is"
    The Guy that tried to twist every possible notion of the definition of 'Probability' into metaphysics, and used bad arithmetic to do it.
    The Guy that trumpeted the victory of creationism because a 'scientist' said his past work was wrong,
    as if that was an indictment of the process. Sorry dude, 'Scientists' abandon theories like gum wrappers.
    That is what Science is. as an annual average (ohoh... unfounded statistics) 1/2 a dozen? people involved in 'scientific' projects, or studies, pop up with awe and wonder at what they've found, and a few of those claim the insight to be revelation and dance off to monasteries.
    Using these events as counter examples to things like demonstrations of DNA recombination, is a pretty useless endeavour.

    You can't battle 'science' by proving how wrong it is. science is always wrong.
    This chatter about how all the underpinnings of everything ever learned through the scientific method, be entirely disregarded in one fell swoop because it's not complete, and crystalline perfect, is a waste of breath.

    To anyone willing to listen:
    "Science", is no more than people tryin to figure out stuff with a bit more organization than trial and error. it will never be otherwise. It cannot be otherwise.

    The final, and only argument for creationism, is that We don't yet know all the mechanisms, and all the factors. Thus, sufficient understanding is forever beyond our ken. therefore, such complexity must come of God.
    Our frailty is our only evidence, and it's all we need. But if you need more, read this book, some guys wrote it a long time ago. and they knew stuff you don't.

    One cannot be used to either validated or invalidate the other, and the people that keep trying to bring God's Kingdom to earth in their lifetimes need to start understanding that they're tilting at the wrong windmill.

    One closing observation.
    The very words bandied about in these comical conversations, exist as concepts solely due to the 'Scientific Method'. I'm not a real educated guy. But, try as I might, (a whole day of heads down web search) I have not as yet found a single useful concept, invention, implement, process, or nonintuitive addition to global knowledge come out of the last 3000 years of hebraic thought. The biggest contribution I can find, was the 2nd Ecumenical Council's fiat declining to denounce women's sufferage. Other than that, the Hindus seem to have predicted some long solar cycles, and a few long orbit comets. I think we have a few more years to see how smart the Mayans were. See you in 2013. maybe.

    *clap clap clap*
    I must admit, that I found this page while seeking, sincerely seeking, some more answers on my world view. No, not answers. Information as to base my judgements.
    I am an ex-pastor and current seeker of truth. My experiences in life, ( I am sadly over 40 now ), do not add up to what I was taught in ministry school. No, they don't call it that, I do. :o)
    Anway, I give kudos to the very pretty, and equally intelligent scientist who started this whole discussion.

    And kudso also to those who added their fives cents and in some cases, a dollars worth of input.

    After reading this whole page, and it took some time as I read some parts twice, it comes down to this.

    Cher...you don't know everything.
    Andy Holland..neither do you, and nor does anyone else who posts here.
    You are all guessing. Some guess with more of the so-called "facts" behind them than others.

    But the wonderful thing here is that all of us are here debating because we are Curious. We WANT to know.

    Sadly, none of us will know who is right until that fateful moment after we breath our last breath on earth.
    Now, we are at the heart of this.

    Because for many, not all, it is the Fear behind that last breath that motivates us to WANT to know.
    Christians don't want to screw up in case the end up in hell.
    Scientists don't want to deal with unfounded fear of an unseen entity, so they write him/her out of the equation all together.

    Generally, I kind of like the Buddha's answer to the origins of all things.

    In a nutshell...the Buddha said, It don't matter. Focus on now. Don't debate what can never ever ever be proven.

    Hmmm...maybe that uneducated, barbaric ancient sage had something going for him after all? Hmmm.

    Also...Pogyhauler, I like your post alot too. Well done.

    Peace to you all. I hope one day God answers my prayer, and tells me everything that is true.
    That's all I ask. Is it that big a deal for God to communicate to me?
    Hence, why I'm here searching. LOL

    Fred Phillips
    Oh, please, the Fermi Problem. “Where are all the little green men?” This is the set-up for the Drake Equation, an early exemplar of the set of Fermi Problems. Drake deliberately (I believe, though it may have been others who retold it later, including my UT physics prof) phrased it that way so the rest of us wouldn’t take it too seriously. He wanted us to reply “Chasing the little green women.”


    Members of the first SETI conference in 1960 wondered why, if intelligence were common in the universe, we had not been visited by alien intelligences during recorded human history. Drake took the estimated number of stars in nearby galaxies, guesstimated the number of life-friendly planets surrounding them, and multiplied (several steps later) by the probability that a technological civilization would not have obliterated itself in nuclear war before stopping in to borrow a cup of sugar from the earthlings. The latter number, obviously, he pulled out of his ass, because no one could know.


    Drake’s result – which some interpreted as a probability of visitors revealing themselves to us in the last ten thousand years or so – was a SWAG, a scientific wild-ass guess, and he never represented it as anything more. It was a way of thinking that could, at best, add a perspective to the other perspectives that were being brought to bear on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.


    I do not think Drake believed even for a moment that he was calculating a true probability even to within a few orders of magnitude. No, in talking about the length of time a technological civilization could exist, and the rate it might expand via space exploration, he was structuring variables pertinent to the problem. The further step, combining these variables using “probabilities,” was pure whimsy, as evidenced by the “little green men” phrase.


    Even the horrible and rarely-to-be-relied-upon Wikipedia acknowledges that “he thought of it as an organizational tool — a way to order the different issues to be discussed at the Green Bank conference.” Unfortunately, Carl Sagan took the equation (and others like it) more seriously, as do many of the commenters on Cher’s post.


    PBS has an interactive Drake equation at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/origins/drak-flash.html. You can see how reasonable variation in all the equation’s components creates huge (and hence, useless) variation in the estimated number of currently existing technological civilizations.
    Damn, I get goose bumps when strangers tell me I'm not stupid. You made my month.
    Sequels never meet expectation, but I just got stroked enough to try again.

    Despite that, you have my overflowing thanks for giving me an excuse to finish my thought.
    So, now you the target.

    Gautama Buddha, unfortunately, didn't say that. Though I wish he did.
    There is no effective single paragraph synopsis of the 9 (or 12, depending) principles.
    Given that Bigheads have been trying for a few millennia, it is undoubtedly fantastically presumptuous.
    But, the closest I can get is:
    "Godhood is an intrinsic. We all possess a piece of it. We don't see it, because we are not quiet. When we become quiet, Godhood will emerge and all that separates us from Nirvana will dissipate."
    Buddhism is not patient. Buddha said that the way takes work. Lot's and lots of work.
    Buddha warns that mistakes are gonna cost. the longer you take, the more pain you feel.

    I don't buy that one either.

    Religionists of every stripe, and Especially those deriving of the hebraic mythos, Are in fact, 'God Fearing'.
    In the best of circumstances, that wouldn't be any issue atall. Nothing wrong with a bit of moral self censorship no matter what the motivation. I don't care if your justification comes from Buddha or the Baron Samedi. If you act like a citizen, we got no problems whatsoever.

    Unfortunately, there is this whole effrontery over what is 'Truth'. And, how that is supposed to affect not only their behavior, but yours too. None of this Evangelism is motivated by 'Fear of God'.
    Hebraism has, down to the bone, a directive to police the universe. "Spreading the word", "Witnessing", and any of 50 other euphemisms get used to mask the fundamental assumption of Authority by virtue of Moral Ascendancy.
    Hebrews, Muslims, Christians all, are told they are "Beloved", and the only way they get to stay "beloved", is to get other people 'Beloved' too. Even if if they gotta load another Clip.

    Creationists have been told they are 'Special', and this special makes them 'better'. and this better, gives them not just the right, but the responsibility to use Any means to counter impediments to the Authority of "God", and the annointed that speak for him. They like this. they like it just fine, and woe to the sophists, and dark skins, that treat them just like any other poor schmuck in the street.

    Deep in the bowels of Hebraic dogma, lurks the notion of 'Tolerance'. This as opposed to 'Acceptance'.
    Jews have this down pat. History has taught them how to play a back game. Though Zionism throws a few cute twists.
    At it's best, 'Tolerance', in the Hebraic/Christian/Muslim lexicon means "don't kill 'em until you're sure you can't control 'em".

    The 'New Testament' does naught to change that. 'Turn the other cheek' all to often gets re-interpereted as
    "just you wait, payback is a bitch".

    Unfortunately Seeker, You are the only 'Seeker' here.
    Of the rational types, some may be engaged in education, self or otherwise. But, most of them are pretty well set in the theocracy department. You gotta understand that, with the occasional exception of the guys with the 'Oh Wow' moments mentioned before, rational types just don't buy this 'Revelation' thing. Or any of the bags hangin off it.
    That includes the whole rollup about "My Truth trumps your benighted ignorant lack of faith. Do what I say, 'cause The Book is on my side"

    Of the Creationists, they ain't 'seekin' nuthin. They have their conclusion. All of this noise is them working back from that and tuning the propaganda. They are up to their collective hairlines in 'Truth'. If they're looking for anything atall, it's a fresh argument ploy to FUD up the debate and grab that hanging vote on the school board with threats and innuendo.
    A rationalist, talking to a creationist, starts with 'You're wrong', and ends the same way. the knotted path between affects nothing. There is no communication, no compromise, no unification, no 'seeking' whatsover. Never has been, Never will be.

    Creationists are simply the most vocal, (and by that virtue only, the most annoying) religionists.
    Religionists care not a whit about science. it's irrelevant in all respects save one.
    It's damn inconvenient..... It keeps people out of the pews, and money out of the collection basket. and makes it tougher to stump for votes. 'Science', especially to an Evangelical, is naught more than a tactical impediment to Rallies in the Town Square. Propaganda in the schools, And legislation based on fear mongering, and "Family Values".

    'Science', asks the one question their book don't answer. So, in one stroke, cuts the legs out from under their self appointed authority.

    If you think your gonna crack the faith of the guy that walks about with the self inflicted delusion that 'Gods Design' is evident in fractals. Think again.

    None of us are debating. Every word, in this whole thread, including mine, are proselytizing. Pure and simple.
    The battle lines were drawn when the first village Charismatic took the original version of the Book of Genesis to heart,
    and decided it was enough reason to go whip up some populace to steal the next village's grain.

    I, am not just an a-gnostic. I'm a heretic. In reliquaries all over the planet, there are whole volumes of rationale about why I should be burned at the stake. The Catholics have names for some of my particular evils. I'm a Humanist, and a Manichaeist apologist.

    For meself, I'm pretty much convinced that this bag of water I walk around in is about the only thing I own.
    It's real likely that when this soup of anti-entropic chemicals wears out, whatever is me, wears out too.
    In the off chance, that there is a 'me' left anywhere past 4 minutes after the cessation of brain activity,
    I got no clue what I'll be seeing. and there no chance I'm gonna come across anybody that does.
    If I have to face the metaphysical equivalent of a small claims court, I'll stand on my record, thank you.

    Unfortunately, this attitude is an unforgivable affront to a hebraic. To an Evangelist of the Post WW2 american home grown variety, it's not just insult, it's a crime. I can't be left to walk around so carelessly, with my self aquired morals and all. I need a keeper, And God says, I'd best go find one of the annointed and sign on. If I don't, I'm fair game.

    Chaos theory, or the whichness of the why not withstanding. Personally, I have a request of whomsoever of a creationist bent may stumble into this catharsis. I don't trust your book, and I don't trust You. You do Not have my best interests at heart, and there is not a shell game you can play that'd convince me otherwise. You keep your mythos inside your own walls. Just like everybody else from the Confucians, to the Presbyterians, Universalists, Jesuits, NAC, Rastafarians, Voodou, and... Me.

    We can have all kinds of fun in forums, soap boxes, letters to the editor and the like.
    But..... Keep your fear and blood covered 'Judgment Day' away from my kids. Keep your 'Higher Power' out of my courts. and keep that ersatz, all too convenient, disingenuous, presumptuous, snide, intolerant collection of of Kosher laws you call 'Family Values' out of my life.

    Oh, I feel So much better.

    "How can someone believe they know the odds that the molecules that make up DNA will form a DNA strand that creates a living organism?"

    Easy, they read it on a creationist website.

    The claimant is reinforcing their bias and they lack the knowledge to understand that the creationists have no understanding of the subject matter but claim to be experts in science, when they are really only experts in scienciness and masters of the art of sciencey sounding phrases

    Odds of a cell

    Maybe some read it on a creationist site, but I was an evolutionist in the 70's and was wondering what the odds were of getting typical gene in the right order to do something useful. I came up with a stunning number of around 1 out of 10 to the 180th power for ONE gene. This got me thinking since one gene can't do much if anything by itself - what are the odds that enough genes could get together (or build up slowly = same odds) and I now get at least 1 out of 10 to the 6000th. It dwarfs the total chemical events of all time (less than 10 to the 120th - see the calculations above in a previous submission) so I am left with a question. How did that happen naturally? Could there be something else going on?
    Since then I have learned more biochemistry and read Fredrick Hoyle, W. Dembski and Stephen Meyer and others (yes Behe) and they all confirm what I discovered on my own in the 70's. The odds are too great.

    "How can someone believe they know the odds that the molecules that make up DNA will form a DNA strand that creates a living organism?"

    How big is your calculator?

    In Excel I could only get to a binary string of 1023 characters long before it spat the dummy and the permutation was 9x10 to the 307th power. To randomly create one specific string is 1:9x10\-307th power.

    So yes, to calculate the odds of a human DNA molecule forming by random selection being that there are about 3.3billion characters in the string is optimistic to say the least. It would have to be a number by an Exponent to the -10s of thousands.

    I recall reading somewhere that statistically a probability greater than 1:1x10\-50th power is considered impossible. Is that correct?

    (the markup does not seem to work so the \ symbol indicates a superscript)

    I calculated impossible at less than 1 out of 10 to the 116th = every time every atom hit another atom since the Big Bang. Your odds of one string of DNA are good enough - they vary from 1 out of 10 to the 50th or so to 10 to 1000ths depending on the length. To get all 3 billion base pairs in the order to make a human would be less than 1 out of 4 to the 3 billionth power or 10 to the 1.8 billionth - but most of the 3 billion are not genes - some junk some viral DNA some not yet known.
    That's odds to get a specific order but even if 10% of the orders were useful the odds would still be astronomical - 10% of 10 to the 300th = 10 to the 299th.

    You made up the whole conversation you opened with, didn't you. You met (or were met by, funny turn of phrase) a man and something he said... all your could do is start at the screen.

    I can't wait to read the rest...

    OK, I may have missed something because I got tired and started skimming after about, I don't know, 50 or so paragraphs describing how mutations work. Only an idiot would be unable to see that beetles (for example) can change until another kind of beetle arises. So what!?

    Bacteria replicate and give rise to nasty little bacteria, fish breed and have little, tiny fish as offspring and cats breed and have small fuzzy kittens and so on. This doesn't mean that a sponge grew eyes and limps and crawled out of the "primordial ooze". Or, that there was a "primordial ooze".

    So, OK, you have proven that DNA can be rearranged and this changes things up a little so that a toy manchester terrier and great dane are so different. We've established that a breeding pair of tiny spiders landing on a remote island can give rise to a whole host of new kinds of spiders and you expressed your take on how this happened quite well, I'm sure. But, how about you explain how natural selection, or whatever, can explain how to select for silk spinning. Then explain how this gave rise to the amazing variety in the way said silk is used.

    As an agnostic who has observed the whole debate about our origins for 45 years I honestly want to know. How would a bug would grow new holes in his ass and then set about figuring out how to use it? Then explain to me how it is you don't know what this poor man, or screen or whatever meant. In the 50s the earth was around 50,000 years old. Then people began to critically examine the likely hood of random chance giving rise to the complexity of life all around us.

    The answer: "Given enough time anything can happen." I wasn't yet observing the debate in the 50s but I have read a tract (it looked like a religious tract) printed by a Humanist organization in the 50s that stated this as a matter of fact. I took notice when the estimate was revised upward to the hundreds of thousands in the 60s as the problems became more and more apparent.

    See given enough time, inert chemicals could combine to make DNA. Given enough time, a pair of bugs with a tiny mutation that creates a , what a cyst?, and they pass it on to their offspring who happen to be more viable (Due to the mutation, right? Isn't that what "natural selection" means?) and pass this mutation on to more and more mutated bugs, right?

    Then the tissue in the cyst mutates and makes silk.... but wait no outlet so, then a couple mutate such that the new gland has an outlet and they mate and start shooting silk out of their butts. But then what? Was it sticky? How many random mutations gave rise to all the varieties of silk one spider can spin. Just how does random chance "taught" them how to use them in novel ways?

    Now, be honest. Explain the gaps in the fossil record. You know, the ones that if found would show where one kind of animal turned into another one. Your article is just what has me fed up with both sides of the debate. You have not shown that one kind of animal gives rise to another kind, yet imply that the idea that we are offspring of single cell organisms that came to life because the proper elements and conditions came together.

    Gerhard Adam
    I'm sorry, but you seem to be all over the place in your comments.  In the first place, it is erroneous to classify biological events ranging from RNA/DNA to mutations are "random" events.  Chemistry has rules, so it isn't possible to argue that chemical reactions are "random".  Similarly, natural selection ensures that any "variation" that is harmful very quickly gets eliminated from future generations.

    However, part of the confusion stems from the idea that DNA is some sort of "program" where if we replace an "instruction" then all kinds of strange things happen.  This simply isn't true.   You need to do some reading on some of the conserved genes to get a better sense of how they work.  Too many people assume that a particular gene has a one for one correspondence to a particular trait, but that also isn't true. 

    Similarly when we consider the role of epigenetics, and (for higher animals) social and even cultural elements, then the path of natural selection can change quite radically.

    Your example of silk is incorrect since you're suggesting a particular outcome.  In other words, you can't claim that the "intent" of natural selection was to produce a silk producing gland.  That's simply what we have today.  It would be like trying to calculate the probability of events in your life that gave rise to your posting on this site.  It's a pointless exercise, since that wasn't the intent of your life.

    The reality is that natural selection might well have produced a gland that excreted a sticky material that might be used to secure food or hold something in place (this is just speculation on my part).  Over time different changes might have resulted in the production of silk.  Correspondingly as these changes were occurring, the animal may well have adapted to create new uses for this capability.  You may think this is implausible, but consider even in the case of humans, how some individuals that lack arms have adapted to use their feet to paint or write with.  Now imagine if that were a major advantage to them, then it isn't difficult to imagine how radical such changes would be if perpetuated within a few generations.

    The problem is that people presume that a specific function is assumed by the mutation as a preferred outcome.  In fact, animals use what they have and consequently we presume that the use to which these traits are put were the "intent" of evolution.  Genes create a range of possible expressions.  A runner can exploit that maximum genetic potential of their leg muscles, but an individual that sits on a couch all day will simply never know.  If environmental requirements favor those that can run fast or over long distances, then those genetic traits will become significant in influencing future generations.  If not, then they may be dormant characteristics that are simply randomly distributed through the population until such a change brings them to light.
    I know my post was all over the place. I have ignored the design vs chance issue for some time. Then when i start to try use the web to research some issues I find what looks very much to me to be dogma on both sides. I base this on all the "stupid things XXX group said" and all the belittling that goes on.

    Here's an example: Starting quite some time ago I have heard the phrase "transition species" many times and heard and read (evolutionists were saying this, mind you) that there was difficulty with the theory of evolution due to a lack of "transitional species". Then, I read a Scientific American" article about the scientists sifting through harvester ant beds, in one of the northern panes states, for tiny fossils which the ants had brought up in tunneling. The goal was to find evidence of "transitional species" in teeny tiny marsupial bone and tooth fragments.

    Then the other day I was trying to figure out if the platypus is transiting from water fowl to mammal (or back, because whales crawled from the primordial ooze only to devolove their legs and crawl back again, right) because I watched a program in which a scientist said dinosaurs with feathers and birds with teeth are "transitional species" so by the same reasoning... just kidding. I was wondering about what was currently being said about "transitional species".

    The thing that set me off is that I found a forum in which a visitor asked about some animal or other being "transitional species" and the very first reply was "Grown ups in real biology don't talk about "transitional species" any more." That sounds like defense an idea that won't stand up to me.

    And I'm 50 years old. I didn't learn to read until I was in the 6th grade but tested in high school level in some things while in the 5th grade because I made up for my dyslexia by learning to listen. Actually, I read on a second grade level and had great retention for spoken word as well as for the spoken word. The things I really remembered was science. I had an infinity for it. An I remember reading in text books and later hearing that "We know the age of rocks because of the fossils we find in them." In the next section I read that "we know the age of fossils because of the type of rock their in." Sounds like dogma to me.

    I also leaned about the "scientific approach" and way back when evolution (not that the birds from the same ancestor have a varitey of beak sizes and shapes due and the variety is greater or lesser due to food availability) I talking about we climbed out of the ooze evolution qualifies at best as a model, period!

    Furthermore, it's been rammed down my throat that "if it can't be measured, if it can't be observed it doesn't exist". But this only applies when it's expedient in promoting whatever dogma we are vested in, right?

    Then there's all this about mutations. Why is it something that been around so long and mutates so readily hasn't lost it's curly wings or blindness or all the other harmful mutations? Shouldn't natural selection gotten rid of it by now. And, what about when we force mutations? Do we not hit a wall every time? Are there not harmful consequences when we try to get too much out of our meddling?

    And, why do we ignore the Cambrian explosion? I don't even have the stomach for trying to learn about this any more and the above article just set me off because it reminded me of the frustration of trying to sift the horse hockey from the apple butter and hearing on the radio that in a plasma (or something to that effect) you know conditions in a comet (OK, my listening skills have declined some in the past few years and I was doing something else) chemicals align for form viruses and I thought "Oh wow" the I heard three words i have come to have (in the context of "science") "in a model".

    Then while earnestly trying to figure out how against the second law (you know the one?) life on earth came from inanimate matter to become ever more complex and found this article with it's fake setup to it's sermon and well yea you only thought I was all over the place.

    Back to a spider. So I guess the spider found it had a tiny, little, itty bitty, incremental change and used it and then there was another it learned to use it and so on and some how these tiny, little, itty bitty, incremental changes provided an advantage until all the elements were there and the spider just had to learn to use what these tiny, little, itty bitty, incremental changes provided, namely silk. Wouldn't the wiring to know how to use silk have to be a dure tiny, little, itty bitty, incremental changes to?

    And whatever was put forth in the above article proves it, right? Except all we ever observe is beetles only ever produce beetles and dogs only ever produce dogs and if we push for something for too much variability we make dogs that have genetic problems. On the other hand, science rejects that idea that there might be a living organism (a pulp worm maybe) makes pulp stones in teeth because we don't make optics powerful enough to detect them. In other words if it can't be observed it can't be. Except in matters of faith. What little of the research I could stomach seems to indicate, to me, that there is no more compelling evidence for evolution than there is on those islands where one kind of bird (see they never even changed into another kind of bird, if finches started to swim and eat fish I'd concede at once.) "gives rise" (a good evolution term, right?) to the same kind of birds but their offspring over time will have more or less widely varied beaks due to environmental pressures.

    I'm sorry, I don't even know if the wording in the last couple sentences make sense and I'm out of steam. Once someone explains how something we have never observed and what 100 years of the most convoluted assumptions built on conjecture is science.. I give up. I though I wanted study the issue so I could at least form an some kind of idea weather there was anything more compelling than i already know and I think it's useless, so I have been venting.

    Gerhard Adam
    Like so many, you need to do some basic research.  However, your post already indicates that you've made up your mind about many things, so this suggests that you aren't actually interested in any answers (or none would satisfy you anyway).
    ...if finches started to swim and eat fish I'd concede at once.
    See ... that's just a dumb thing to say.   You see all manner of transitional adaptations, but because you don't see some cobbled together monstrosity (as if it were some half-built car) you don't see evolution.

    It seems that you don't want to learn anything knew, so I have to wonder ... what's the basis for your questions?  A 30-second Google search would likely provide more than enough information to research. 
    Wow, I'd love to be able to go back and edit that last one or delete it maybe. Oh well. As soon as another monkey overshoots a branch but still catches it with it's tail but keeps going until it lands on it's back thereby loosing it's tail and being able to stand upright or another lizard runs and runs from predators flapping it's little front legs until the flapping frays its scales and they eventually become feathers and it starts to fly, or some similar instance where one kind of animal turns into another kind of animal let me know. I'll gladly do whatever I can do to assist the high priests of "science" preach evolution (We're not getting into what I mean by evolution again let's just say that what we observe now isn't it.)

    Gerhard Adam
    Do you enjoy being foolish?  It never ceases to amaze me, how people can choose to remain so willfully ignorant and then be smart asses to top it all off.

    Let me give you a big hint here.  No one gives a damn whether you believe in evolution or not.  No one gives a damn whether you understand biology.  The only thing that is known, is that your silly ass will still gain the benefit of that knowledge regardless of how ignorant you choose to remain.
    I like your post!
    And yes, please, I beg of evolutionists, just give us one, just one, however tiny, example of one species transitioning into another (and not simply adapting) and you'll shut us creationists up once and for all!!!!!

    refering to post by Anonymous

    Gerhard Adam
    The irony  here is that you don't even know what you don't know. 

    The mere fact that you would even consider yourself a creationist says all that is needed.  I also want to be quite clear here, that this isn't about religion, since many scientists would have no difficulty in reconciling their religious views with evolution (and recognizing speciation).  Creationism is specifically about intentionally choosing to remain ignorant and proclaiming supernatural explanations over scientific ones.  So, before you get all huffy about atheists and/or belief in God, bear in mind that neither of those viewpoints have anything to do with evolution.  So declaring yourself a "creationist" doesn't define your religious view, it most definitely defines your anti-scientific view. 

    While many scientific views may be controversial and certainly not "final" in any sense.  They represent a continuous seeking of knowledge, and new information so that we can better understand the world we live in.  Being "anti-science" in today's world is simply choosing to be ignorant, despite reaping the benefits of those that pursue science and its use.
    Anti-science? I don't get it. Engineers try to mimick what they observe in nature because of it's amazing design. A Creation scientist and an atheist scientist both look to the amazing designs in nature to help them create new inventions. How does believing in a Creator change any of this? Evolution is more about history than science (origins) Remove Evolution from the picture and what great thing would civilization be missing? Nanotechnology? Biometrics? Computers?
    Blaise Pascal, Newton, Robert Boyle were all scientists that believed in a creator. Did belief in a creator stunt their scientific advancements?

    The following is a quote:

    Many historians (of many different religious persuasions—including atheistic) have shown that modern science started to flourish only in largely Christian Europe. These historians point out that the basis of modern science depends on the assumption that the universe was made by a rational creator. An orderly universe makes perfect sense only if it were made by an orderly Creator. But if there is no creator, or if Zeus and his gang were in charge, why should there be any order at all? So, not only is a strong Christian belief not an obstacle to science, such a belief was its very foundation.

    Just to reiterate: a strong Christian belief is NOT an obstacle to science.

    And a last thought, yes, it's true, certain scientists have no problem integrating their religious beliefs with evolution (theistic evolution), but Christianity and Evolution are mutually exclusive (Creationists) But Christianity and Science and certainly not mutually exclusive.

    Hank
    At least on this site, and in mainstream science and mainstream America, there is no issue with religion and science.  In America, 40% of scientists and arguably the most famous biologist in America, Francis Collins, are religious.  Militant atheists intentionally muddy the issue by calling all religious people 'creationist', which is unfortunate and inaccurate, since actual biology says nothing at all about the spark of life, instead it seeks to know how we evolved to where we are.    'Young earth creationists' are a fringe minority who deny all science.  Both sides have kooks but few people claim the sides are exclusive.
    Want more no-nonsense, independent science? Buy Science Left Behind
    Gerhard Adam
    ...but Christianity and Evolution are mutually exclusive
    Then you've made it so, and thus declared yourself to be anti-science.  You can't simply take bits and pieces of what you find acceptable while discarding the rest.
    Christian belief not an obstacle to science, such a belief was its very foundation.
    I believe that's commonly referred to as nonsense.  What on earth do historians have to do with validating science? 
    A Creation scientist and an atheist scientist both look to the amazing designs in nature to help them create new inventions.
    Once again, you can't simply make up things like "creation scientist" as if there is such a thing.  More importantly, it's incredibly trite to think that the only thing you can see out of this is the ability to develop new inventions.
    Evolution is more about history than science (origins) Remove Evolution from the picture and what great thing would civilization be missing?
    This simply demonstrates that you don't understand it.  Further evidence is your inclusion of "origins" in the definition.  Perhaps a bit more investigation or study is in order before you make proclamations that aren't true.
    I'm pro-biology. pro-physics. pro-chemistry. pro-genetics. (ad nauseum). How does being anti-evolution make me anti-science? I was trying to explain that the theory of Evolution only explains how and when we evolved. That's it. If I want to understand how an airplane works in order to be able to build one myself, I will study and execute all the necessary SCIENTIFIC aspects involved. Knowing that it was the Wright Brothers who invented the first airplane in 1903 doesn't change anything!

    By creation scientist, I mean a scientist that is also a young earth creationist. I suppose you are saying that no such thing exists because you believe that any true scientist must believe in evolution?

    And, why not give me an example of how belief in evolution led to some great advancement in science? (that is, the scientist in question would not have discovered and/ or invented what he did without his belief in evolution)

    Gerhard Adam
    I'm pro-biology. pro-physics. pro-chemistry. pro-genetics. (ad nauseum).
    No you aren't.  You're only "pro" science when it suits you.  You would reject any of those sciences if they conflicted with your religious belief.  I'm equally sure that you reject any physics hypothesis that deal with the origins of the universe. 

    An understanding of evolution is fundamental to understanding something as simple as antibiotic resistance in bacteria.  So, if you don't accept natural selection, then you must think that acquiring such a trait occurred by magic.  Similarly, if you don't accept natural selection, then by extension you can't accept artificial selection (i.e. animal breeding to domestic forms). 
    I was trying to explain that the theory of Evolution only explains how and when we evolved.
    ... and I was indicating that you don't know what you're talking about.
    By creation scientist, I mean a scientist that is also a young earth creationist. I suppose you are saying that no such thing exists because you believe that any true scientist must believe in evolution?
    Your statement makes it even worse, since a young earth creationist disavows almost all science (physics, geology, chemistry, etc.)

    Any scientist that is willing to deny the data to support a personal belief cannot lay claim to being a scientist.  It's not complicated, but there it is.  Setting such boundaries simply means that you aren't to be trusted as a scientist since there's some findings you're quite comfortable in simply ignoring.

    Your statements also indicate your anti-scientific attitude, because you seem to think that science is something that you can simply make up.  If you don't like where it leads, then you can choose to "not believe" it.  Evolution isn't speculation.  If you deny it, then you're denying the scientific principles that lead to it.

    This is the only conflict that occurs with such views.  If your belief is more important than the data or evidence, then you aren't a scientist. 
    Mark-n-PRMantis
    "And, why not give me an example of how belief in evolution led to some great advancement in science? (that is, the scientist in question would not have discovered and/ or invented what he did without his belief in evolution)"
    I have been out of this debate for a while - but since it seems to be renewed now I cannot bite my tongue any longer...

    This quote above crystallizes the exact problem in this entire discussion - evolutionary theory is not a **belief system** - it is a set of rigorous *tools* (not beliefs) scientists use to help us understand how the world works (it even can be God, the Creator's world, if you'd like). 

    Christie, you should try being 'pro science.' That is the set of tools used to reveal the biology, physics, chemistry and genetics you are so fond of.

    It is not a scientist's *belief* in evolution that has led to most of modern medical science as we know it - or rocket science or ecological science or - take your pick - anymore than an engineer's belief in the tensile strength of a material convinces her to use it to build a bridge (these sorts of things are tested repeatedly in a controlled methodology based on our prevailing understanding of the field).

    The theory of evolution by natural selection is real, baby. I can show you it happening. It does not directly explain 'original origins,' nor does it claim to. (I believe Darwin erred in using the term 'origins' in his seminal work. The origin of a species is much, much different than the origin of the Universe, to which he spoke very little and his theoretical constructs do not approach.) 

    These tools of scientific research are rigorous and allow us to speculate on causality with a methodology that can be scrutinized by others based on the application of the theory to actual data collected according to common conventions. It is a language we can *all* understand and work with without bias or faith.

    Creation 'theory' is a belief system. It reveals more about the theoretician than the observable world. The world will exist as it does regardless of what you - or I - think about God. The difference between this and real science is the appeal to evidence. Incredible complexity is an observation - but not scientific evidence. You cannot say - "wow! that is so cool! God did it!!!" - and expect to understand anything any better. (I call this the Behe defense - Michael Behe is formerly a biochemist scientist and since is an early proponent of the "intelligent design" fallacy. A quote from the blurb that accompanied the search result on his Lehigh University page reads: "Irreducibly complex systems appear to me to be very difficult to explain within a traditional gradualistic Darwinian framework..." http://www.lehigh.edu/bio/faculty/behe.html -- ") 

    Notice the "appear to me" in the quote. That is the problem! (not to mention a "Darwinian framework" doesn't always require gradualism.)

    Here's the difference. When a particular phenomenon is observed and measured and replicated, we have a set of data - evidence - to draw conclusions from. Evidence is something you can *show* someone. That person can disagree with your conclusions, or object to something about the way the data were collected, or question the analysis. Then, they can do it themselves and show us their evidence and analysis and conclusions. And we can do the same thing to them. Nothing needs to "appear to them" to be anything. That would be like saying -- you know 2+2 doesn't really seem to me like it should equal 4 - I say 5. 

    (Okay, that is a little different, since math is a convention of rules that we made up to describe things we see - oh, just like the theory of natural selection... so I guess it's about the same!)

    This method of exploring the world allows us to hone our understanding of natural phenomena in a meaningful way that can be built upon in the scientific record. Most frequently, some aspect of this - the data collection, the analysis or the conclusion - is wrong. But that only allows the entire community to further refine the prevailing understanding of the phenomenon. 

    In a scientific context, our appeal to 'faith' is objective and so evidence based - not faith based. I can analyze your work. I can get the same answers or different ones. And if my answers are different - and here is the crux - we can attempt to understand the source of these differences. We can analyze our respective works and figure out if we disagree in our methodology, analysis or conclusions. This results in a more refined understanding of the phenomenon.

    In a creationist, or religious 'investigation,' I cannot analyze your data collection methods because you have none. Your analysis is faith-based which is irrefutable and cannot be disproven. Your conclusions tell me a LOT more about YOU than our world. 

    A creationst/religious viewpoint of natural phenomena can be different for everyone - a data-dependent, scientifically analyzed approach is peer reviewable and scrutinizable - we can attempt to understand *why* we disagree without have to appeal to unapproachable causality. 

    Evolutionary Theory is not faith-based -- it is not based on 'belief.' Believing in the value of the investigative tools we use does not equate to a belief system. A flashlight shows you things in the dark - without the light, anything imaginable could lurk there.

    (oy, I can't believe I got sucked back in!)
    Hi Christie,
    I am a Christian who wonders if you accept an young earth - do you also accept an earth centered universe as implied by Eccl 1:5 and Joshua 10 and ps 19 and many other passages if read literally instead of phenomenologically? The ONLY reason you believe the earth goes around the sun is because of science - (revelation from God's creation) why can't we use that to better help us understand Gen 1?
    Most of the words of the Bible are defined by observations from tree to river - we can't separate God's two revelations and one doesn't rule over the other - both are true when properly interpreted. Check out the book: THE LOST WORLD OF GENESIS ONE by John Walton of Wheaton College. Genesis probably is telling us who and why not how and when.

    In reply to Mark Berman.

    lol, yes it looks like you got sucked back in.

    I ususally don't participate in online debates either. Do you think anyone has ever changed sides because of an internet debate? I'd love to meet such a person....

    I appreciated your response ( it was very interesting) and will reflect on an answer shortly.

    Ok, here is my attempt:

    Creationist's believe in Natural Selection and Adaptation. These things are observable and true and stand up to the scientific method. No problem there. Bacterial resistance would be an example of adaptation and Natural Selection.

    What we don't accept is the theory that life formed by random chance from inanimate molecules (chemicals etc.)
    For the life of me, this has never been proven, nor observed. There is no evidence of one species changing into another. The peppered moth is not an example. Nor are the finches beaks. Nor is bacterial resistance (they still remain bacteria.)
    Mutations are said to be very rare. They are also said to be almost always harmful to the organism. Sickle Cell anemia is often given as an example of a beneficial mutation. But this mutation does not add information to the DNA. Mutations are either the shuffling of the DNA code or deletions of the DNA code. No instance is known of a mutation adding info to the genome. Do you know of an example?

    I read Behe's book, Darwin's Black Box. Now, Behe has a PHD in Biochemistry. I'm just a lowly French teacher. Would he not know infinitely more than I do about science? If he says that Evolution isn't possible nor observed, should I dismiss his ideas as crazy? Is he not just as credible as, say, Richard Dawkins or even yourself?
    In his book, he states that molecular evolution has never addressed the question of how complex sturctures came to be. He says NEVER. If a plausible scenario does not even exist, how can the PROOF of molecular evolution exist?

    I think I've brought up valid concerns and questions. Yet, I'm deemed 'stupid' (not necesaryily by you) when I don't embrace a theory that has so many holes? For all the phenomena that we observe in the universe, there is a scientific explanation. The only thing that is 'Supernatural' is how life itself began.... and as of yet, science has not provided a satisfactory explanation.

    Gerhard Adam
    ...as of yet, science has not provided a satisfactory explanation.
    That is completely correct.  However, that does NOT presume that no explanation is possible.  Therefore, Behe is already out of line in attempting to close the book on the issue.
    No instance is known of a mutation adding info to the genome. Do you know of an example?
    Of course ... that's precisely how bacteria acquire antibiotic resistance via Horizontal Gene Transfer.  They are exchanging genetic information resulting in a net "increase" in information.  Specifically the point about mutations is fundamentally incorrect because it presumes to set constraints on the issue.

    Given ... we do NOT know how life originated.  There are certainly ideas that are floating around, and despite the criticism of some of the experiments, that is also misplaced, since they are only intended to demonstrate the plausibility of such events occurring.  It has NEVER been suggested that they represent a model of what actually occurred.

    However, if we work from the premise that there is an explanation, then we must conclude that the arbitrary restriction that "information" can't be added to a strand of DNA, is simply wrong.  After all, there's no basis for making such a claim in the first place.  Part of the problem with such simplistic stipulations is that it fails to take into account that two organisms could have the same DNA sequences, but entirely different gene expressions.  So the problem isn't as simple as "turn on A and that invariably produces B".  Such a direct correlation simply doesn't exist for the majority of genes. 

    Just consider the simple case of the DNA in your own cells.  What differentiates your heart cell from your liver or skin cells?  They each have exactly the same DNA, but the expression of those identical genes is different in each cell to produce the division of labor we see in a multicellular organism. 
    There is no evidence of one species changing into another.
    That statement presents another problem.  What do we mean by species?  It is commonly thought that reproduction is a limiting factor, but that isn't true, since we see cross-species breeding between horses and donkeys to produce mules.  Admittedly, most mules are incapable of reproducing but that's because of a difference in the number of chromosomes rather than anything fundamentally to do with being different "species".  There are numerous instances of such species separation (consider that small cats consist of seven different species) without requiring that no interbreeding is possible.  In reality, speciation would mostly occur because of the loss of an opportunity to breed (i.e. geographic separation), which would eventually result in local mutations, genetic drift, etc. resulting in species that diverge from a common ancestor.

    Also, by suggesting that a species changes into another is misleading.  Populations change.  As a result, the population in one area may become separated and develop along different lines than a population in another area.  After some period of time, they might be considered separate species.   However, don't overlook the fact that "species" is strictly a human classification definition whereby we place similar/comparable organisms together into a group for naming purposes.  As such, the species designation can often be quite arbitrary in closely related animals.   The point being, that people often use silly examples by suggesting that they've never seen a dog evolve into a fish or a bird.

    Natural selection doesn't work that way.  Some traits are "fixed" because of an animal's history, so there may not be any "going back" to an alternate structure.  Genes can only change based on what an animal currently possesses and the environmental pressures that will affect its ability to survive.  If someone thinks that placing a dog underwater will result in it growing gills ... well, then they don't understand what's taking place.  This is similar to the issue often phrased as to how the giraffe got a long neck.  The question is invariably phrased to wonder how such a thing could happen.  Instead the question is actually being asked backwards.  It isn't "how did giraffes get long necks to eat tree leaves".   It should be "what do long necked animals eat"?  As a result, if we have an animal that has a longer neck and gains an advantage over others by being able to eat vegetation that they can't, then that trait will tend to be preserved and changes (in that trait) will tend to become more prevalent and eventually "fixed" in the population. 

    That's why it's important to always remember that for natural selection to occur it will require that some trait is heritable (passed down from the parents), and that there is an environmental pressure for which that trait provides an advantage.  Without the latter, a trait could sit dormant in a population without ever being expressed, but suddenly if a sudden environmental change occurs, it might prove advantageous and shift favorably over to particular members of that group.  It's like having the genes for being a champion marathon runner....  they don't do you any good unless you actually train to be a marathon runner.  If you're a couch potato, then those traits will never manifest (although you may inadvertently produce an Olympic champion in your grandchildren).
    What we don't accept is the theory that life formed by random chance from inanimate molecules (chemicals etc.)
    What's to accept?  No theory has yet been proposed.  Certainly there is research occurring and people are exploring possibilities, but what are you against?  The possibility that there is an explanation?

    Also the concept of "randomness" is overstated by a considerable amount.  This often results in extremely stupid mathematical claims that have no basis in reality.  Chemistry obeys the laws of physics and chemistry, so interactions are NOT simply random.  That term is often used to describe the non-specific behavior of a large collection of atoms, and assumes that all "allowable" interactions can occur.  However, combining Hydrogen and Oxygen atoms, will NEVER result in CO2 being produced. 

    Contrary to the mythology, there is a considerable amount of evidence that supports the idea of chemicals forming the necessary organic molecules to be the precursors to life.  While many people may find it hard to accept life originating from inanimate chemistry, the alternative is to postulate magic (i.e. miracles).  Which is more acceptable?
    Mark-n-PRMantis
    Christie.... 
    There are many, many unscientific comments parroted back by you in your response. I appreciate that you have thought carefully based on what you have read, but I think you need to read more. Perhaps some work by Stephen J. Gould would be more instructive for you than Dr. Behe. A PhD in biochemistry does not automatically confer expert status on a commentator. Peer-review makes science the powerful arbiter that it is. Dr. Behe has not been peer-reviewed since, when observing the wonderment of the machinations of a working cell, he threw up his hands and proclaimed, "G-d did it!" That is one of many problems he faces in the scientific community.

    If I have the patience I will try to address some of the things you have said.

    <blockquote>Creationist's believe in Natural Selection and Adaptation. These things are observable and true and stand up to the scientific method. No problem there. Bacterial resistance would be an example of adaptation and Natural Selection.</blockquote>



    correct - no problem there. Except that I do not believe that is truly what most Creationist's believe. Perhaps it is what you believe - but then maybe you need to more carefully examine your beliefs.


    <blockquote> the theory that life formed by random chance from inanimate molecules (chemicals etc.) For the life of me, this has never been proven, nor observed. There is no evidence of one species changing into another</blockquote>

    Okay -- well, there are a few problems here. First -- scientists - real scientists - never think in terms of proving. Perhaps that is semantics, but it is important as it speaks to the humility with which real science is conducted. Nothing is proven -  ever. And what is observed is observed circumstantially - at that place, in those conditions, at that time.

    It is commonly accepted that life is made up of inanimate molecules - so are you. 

    Also, the mechanisms of speciation by natural selection are fairly well tested - not proven. There is voluminous evidence of one evolutionary line of organisms branching into reproductively isolated groups. The concept of 'species' is a semantical device used to discuss these phenomena - Nature doesn't think like that.

    In both case, the element you are not including is time. Evolution isn't a "for the life of me" type of event. It is a slow, (usually) gradual winnowing of all permutations of genetic material that get expressed from one generation to the next.

    You and Dr. Behe shouldn't get so hung up on what evolutionary theory doesn't explain rather consider what it does explain and what else it will reveal. 

    If conceptions such as 'it's just a theory' that ' has a lot of holes in it' didn't get adopted into the general public of French teachers and the like, most scientists would find Dr. Behe laughable - I do (and I am no great scientist, believe me, but I understand science's "purpose.")

    Unfortunately, it is difficult to understand where 'randomness' plays into the statistical constructs that give the theory of Natural Selection its robust power. Scientists use terms like "theory" and "random" in more precise ways than the general public.

    The objective of true scientific inquiry is to understand what we observe to the extent that we are able to **predict** future event's. e\Even if we could predict another 'creation event,' I am not sure how our understanding of observable phenomena would enable us to predict any expected outcomes.

    Science is not a political tool to be bastardized in religious dogma. You may wish to spew the inflammatory diatribe of those such as Dr. Behe and claim that 'evolutionism' is the religious dogma of scientists, but really it isn't. None of the many scientists I have ever known have considered their research as a way to promote their particular belief system - rather their strong adherence to the dogmatic application of scientific principles and practices assures them their work will be soberly scrutinized by their peers for its consistency with known phenomena and their understanding of the world.

    It doesn't always work that way. But a theory doesn't have holes in it - the evidence supporting the theory may not be complete. A theory is a useful tool to explore observable phenomena and predict what you expect to see. Not seeing what you expect may lead you to re-examine your theoretical construct, but data are data. The Theory of Natural Selection has been extremely useful for predicting future events and has led to amazing advances in medical and genetic knowledge and most of the prevailing theories of how the living world works.

    If Creationists or others do not like the answers the theory is coming up with (assuming they understand it) it is an invitation to coming up with your own ***testable**** theories - ones that produce data that conventional wisdom recognizes and can scrutinize. The concept that God did it cannot be tested in any way that allows the collection of data you and I would both agree exists = bad science. 

    If you have a 'Creation Theory" that can be tested by collecting real-world, observable data with a methodology that I or any competent scientist could replicate - we have something to talk about - otherwise, I suspect we have different ideas of who or what God is. I was raised in a Jewish family where no issue no matter how trivial was unexamined with each family member having multiple opinions about the answer. Nothing was taken on faith. What do you want me to do?! I think the work got too hard for Dr. Behe and he made a reputation (and presumably a living) by throwing up his hands and telling the world what he thinks about his Creator (not mine).




    Oh - I forgot about your reply...


    Mutations are not rare - not even close. Mutations that end up making a measurable difference are somewhat rare. Baseline mutations occur all the time - every single time a strand of DNA is read and replicated or translated. The cell has developed all sorts of chemical proofreaders to alleviate the ill effects of most of these mutations. Mutations are also not mostly bad. The ones we notice most are bad. The ones that aren't bad don't really get noticed so much -- opposable thumbs worked out pretty well for hominids.

    Sickle Cell Anemia is not a beneficial mutation - it is a deadly mutation. It does have a genetic form that isn't fatal but does confer some resistance to Malaria - a deadly parasite. 

    The idea of a mutation 'adding information' to a genome isn't really put right. If it is different information - is that added? I mean - it isn't like the genome needs to grow for a useful mutation to exist - only change. "Adding information" doesn't really make sense to me. There are very very large genomes (in terms of base pairs or functional genes) that produce rather 'simple' organisms - our understanding of the genetic code is still infantile. To claim that there is something about it we don't understand provides some evidence of an intelligent being conniving the variation is simplistic at best. Since the structure of DNA was only first described the year before I was born, I think another 50 years or so may be a reasonable time-frame to really expect *understanding* - it's pretty heady stuff.

    <blockquotes>Now, Behe has a PHD in Biochemistry. I'm just a lowly French teacher. Would he not know infinitely more than I do about science? If he says that Evolution isn't possible nor observed, should I dismiss his ideas as crazy? Is he not just as credible as, say, Richard Dawkins or even yourself?</blockquotes>

    You should not dismiss - nor accept- any 'ideas' as crazy or gospel. His, or my credibility should be determined by the strength of his arguments. With what does he back it up? Does he have data that point to this 'intelligence?' 

    "It stands to reason...." or any dismissive comment such as that is not supporting data. Reason helps develop theories, not support them - data support them.

    <blockquote>In his book, he states that molecular evolution has never addressed the question of how complex sturctures came to be. He says NEVER. If a plausible scenario does not even exist, how can the PROOF of molecular evolution exist?</blockquote>


    This is ludicrous. 

    Did you read Darwin's book(s)? They are a bit of a chore to plow through. He was substantially more thoughtful and clear than Dr. Behe is. But -- if you do take the time to slog through some of the Origin (an unfortunate name that I believe has fed this ridiculous beast of a 'controversy'), pay careful attention to how Darwin handled observations that didn't support his theories directly. This is where you will learn the difference between a real scientifically-thinking person and Dr. Behe.

    Better yet, read some Gould - he disagrees with much of the current understanding of things, too.

    Wow, I appreciate the time both of you must have taken to answer me... and Gerhard you were pleasantly diplomatic! (I'm not being sarcastic) So, I will in turn, take the time to think of my rebuttal and reply shortly...

    Gerhard Adam
    I'm going to be a bit less diplomatic in this response.  I would appreciate it, if you didn't bother with a "rebuttal", since I'm not really interested in arguing about evolutionary theory.

    Instead, if you want to argue for an alternate theory, then you need to present that theory as well as what it proposes (including what it predicts).  Simply arguing against the theory of evolution doesn't count. 

    In addition, if you intend to use terms like "intelligent" or "design" then I would expect to see those terms properly defined before you use them, in addition to indicating what they are supposed to represent in your theory.

    There is more than enough information regarding the science of evolution and natural selection, so that it isn't necessary nor appropriate to argue the individual merits in a blog posting.  However, if you want to present an alternative theory, then do it properly and let's see where it goes. 

    As I said, simply arguing against natural selection (or even the origin of life) is NOT a theory and will be dismissed out of hand by myself.
    My intention was to take the time to carefully answer your previous post, but I think I will just conclude with this:

    The theory of ID has been written about much more clearly and convincingly than I could ever hope to write in this blog... so I won't. But that is the theory I propose. (authors I have personally read: Francis Collins, Phillip Johnson, Ken Ham, Marvin Lubenow, Grant Jeffrey, Werner Gitt, Lee Strobel, Michael Behe, Jonathann Wells, Michael Denton, Jonathan Safarti)

    In your second to last post, you admitted that science has not yet provided a satisfactory explanation to the questions of the origin of life. And that is really all I wanted. I am completely satisfied. You made my day!

    And you finished by stating that the other alternative was to postulate magic. I postulate:

    Quote: ' Theism, with its concept of a transcendent Creator, provides a more causally adequate explanation of the Big Bang than a naturalistic explanation can offer. The cause of the universe must transcend matter, space, and time, which were brought into existence with the Big Bang. The Judeo-Christian God has precisely this attribute of transcendence. Yet, naturalism, by definition, denise the existence of any entity beyond the closed system of nature. Theism affirms the existence of an enityt that's not only transcendent but intelligent as well- namely God.'
    - Stephen Meyer

    That's all. Thank you for your time.

    Gerhard Adam
    See, rather than waste a bunch of time in discussing something you didn't actually want to know about, it is much easier for you to simply declare that you've adopted a religious explanation instead of a scientific one.

    I don't understand why you seem to think that the "origin of life" question is a kind of "gotcha" issue to science. 
    And you finished by stating that the other alternative was to postulate magic. I postulate:

    Quote: ' Theism, with its concept of a transcendent Creator, provides a more causally adequate explanation of the Big Bang than a naturalistic explanation can offer. The cause of the universe must transcend matter, space, and time, which were brought into existence with the Big Bang. The Judeo-Christian God has precisely this attribute of transcendence. Yet, naturalism, by definition, denise the existence of any entity beyond the closed system of nature. Theism affirms the existence of an enityt that's not only transcendent but intelligent as well- namely God.'
    - Stephen Meyer
    Yes, like I said .... magic.  Instead of science, you've opted for a supernatural explanation.  This is precisely why proponents of alternative theories aren't to be trusted.  It's always a thinly veiled (or sometimes not so thinly) excuse to introduce religion into scientific matters.  You've made my point.
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    Larry Arnold
    I will say without doubt that the probability of my being here calculated from the beginning of whatever is 1 because I am here, and I know I'm here. (at least I think I do, and Bishop Berkeley nothwithstanding accept that there is something outside that my being here reacts to.)

    Well I had to be, because I am, and everything that is has a cause in something that was before, and therefore everything that is had to be the way it is and only the way it is, to the extent that I am writing this because it was preordained and I have no choice in the matter of who believes what or who doesn't because we are all constrained in the same way:)

    Oh what fun though to have been around and gone to a Casino with Pascal, we might have cleaned up. Wait a minute, we didn't did we, and all this is just words, unless I am dreaming that there are things called words? The consolations of philosophy eh? No that one isn't mine either, twas Boethius, or was it, I wasn't there to check remember? no you don't cos you weren't there either, so who was?
    2 Cher Stewart

    You exhibit all the traits of a radical believer, and at the same time you're trying to mask this fact by occasionally making some kinda agnostic statements, like “that’s my opinion, not a fact.”

    “The universe isn't miraculous for this very reason.” ©

    I love this one. We have no clue about what over 80% of the universe is, but we already know that it “isn't miraculous”. It seems to me that just like ignorance was the biggest quality of humanity 10 centuries ago, self-confidence is the biggest quality of humanity today. By the universal scales, we literally just crawled out of our caves, but “the ONLY unanswered questions” you “have …is why there was energy to begin with and what lies beyond on our universe that causes this seemingly never-ending expansion.” ©

    Could you allow me to express my humble opinion…? Considering ALL the unanswered questions that exist in the universe, most likely I will be carried out of my house in a wooden box (and I don’t expect it to happen any time soon), before humanity discovers even 99% of everything that there is still out there. I’m, for instance, trying to reinvent a living cell for myself, for curiosity sake. Your description of it ( “it’s quite simple the way a cell works” © ) fits well into my school Biology textbook from the 80-s, but definitely doesn’t fit our modern knowledge of it at all, because the more we go down that rabbit hole, the more miraculous things are being discovered (good bedtime reading, by the way http://www.tbiomed.com/content/2/1/29 )

    I truly never stop being amazed by stupidity and ignorance of religious lunatics and by self-confidence of the atheists alike. This is what was said by one of the greatest minds who ever lived (and the following quote doesn’t even represent his religious believe, but it rather represents his shyness and modesty in a presence of this VAST complexity and order of things that we don’t really know anything about yet):

    "We are in the position of a little child entering a huge library filled with books in many different languages. The child knows someone must have written those books. It does not know how. It does not understand the languages in which they are written. The child dimly suspects a mysterious order in the arrangement of the books but doesn't know what it is. That, it seems to me, is the attitude of even the most intelligent human being toward God. We see a universe marvelously arranges and obeying certain laws, but only dimly understand these laws. Our limited minds cannot grasp the mysterious force that moves the constellations." - Albert Einstein.

    James Ph. Kotsybar
    0 0 1 86 491 Chaotic Exotics 4 1 576 14.0 Normal 0 false false false EN-US JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}

    ONE PARADISE

    -- James Ph. Kotsybar

     

    The double helix seems essential for

    what we call life to survive and endure.

    One molecule was life’s first ancestor.

    This may be true, but no one knows for sure.

     

    Evolving from one strand of DNA

    when amino acids were lightning struck,

    life reproduced itself in an array

    of forms from this unlikely bit of luck.

     

    On Earth, we think, life happened only once,

    and all the organisms present here –

    from ocean plankton to the beast that hunts –

    were given only one chance to appear.

     

    For life, our planet seems a paradise,

    and yet, we’ve never seen it happen twice.

    WHO created DNA????

    Gerhard Adam
    I did.
    DNA and Chance Mutations 2012
    Is it possible for random chance mutations to produce all the information we find in the DNA of cells? You will calculate the odds of getting a useful DNA molecule and a first cell and compare it with how many mutations (or events) could have taken place in all time. You can then calculate the odds of forming your DNA by chance. Let’s get familiar with probability by flipping a coin. If you are good with probability skip to #6

    1. What are the chances of flipping a coin and getting a “head”? _1__ out of 2 or ½ or 50%.
    2. Now flip it. What did you get? __AWV_ Does the coin know which side was up last time? __no_ If you flip it again will the chances of it being the same as the first flip be less than, greater than or equal to the first time? _equal___ How many combinations are possible if you flip a coin twice? List all the combinations here: for example (H=head T=tail) HT, TH, _HH_or _TT. Since there are 4 combinations the chances of getting two heads is 1 out of __4__ or 1/4th or _25___%.
    3. What are the chances of getting 3 heads in a row? Figure out how many different combinations there are such as HHH or HHT and write them all here: _HTT HTH TTT TTH THT THH____________________
    How many are there? __8_ The chances of getting HHH is 1 out of _8__ or 1/8th.
    4. Do you see a pattern here? If there are 2 possibilities for 1 flip, 4 for 2 flips, 8 for 3 what do you think there are for 4 flips? _16____ (hint: what’s next? 2,4,8,_16__) What about 5 flips? _32____
    5. For larger numbers it gets too complicated to write out every combination. We can use a simple formula to calculate the number combinations for 2 heads. The formula for the number of possibilities if n = the number of flips is 2n . 2 times itself the # of flips. For 2 flips it’s 22 = 2x2=4 for 3 flips it’s 23 = 2x2x2=8. What is it for 100 heads in a row? 2 to the __100th____ power, for 1000 heads in a row? 2 to the ___1000th___ power.
    6. The odds of getting a particular combination is 1 out of the total number of possible combinations. The odds of getting 2 heads in a row is ½ x ½ = ¼, you multiply, not add the odds. The odds of getting 3 heads is ½ x ½ x ½ = (½)3 or 1/8th. The odds of getting 100 heads in a row, or any particular pattern of heads and tails is ½ times itself 100 times or (½)100 = 1100/2100 or 1/2100(since1 to the 100th power is still 1 since 1x1x1x1x1x1=1). Do you think it’s likely to get 10 heads in a row? __AWV__ Try it a few times. Did you succeed? _no_ Is it likely to get 100 heads in a row? _no_ How about 6,000?__NO_ The DNA of a simple cell has over 6,000 ATCGs in the correct order. Humans have over 10 million in 30,000 genes. (actually 3 billion ATCG’s but much may be non coding)
    7. There are 2 choices when flipping a coin. DNA and written language are both Complex Specific Information. DNA has 4 different molecules in its “alphabet”, ATCG (Adenosine= A, Thymine = T, Cytosine = C and Guanine = G), to make the messages to run cells. The order of the DNA units is in a code that tells a cell either to build a frog or a tree. Random chance can produce complex rows of letters: rycbtisdrcbcaksvbscnervkdby but it’s not specific information. Crystals are specific information, but it’s repeated over and over like writing “crystalcrystalcrystal”. It’s not complex. This could produce a snowflake but not a poem or a cell or anything needing complex specific information. DNA is complex AND specific, like written language. It uses triplet codes which are like words and like words a few triplet codes can’t do anything. Genes are long strings of DNA triplet code words that code for a protein. They are like sentences. They can do one thing each but can’t act alone. The genes of a simple cell would fill pages if all the ATCG bases were written out – like a chapter or small booklet. If you wrote out all the ATCG's in our 20 to 30,000 genes of DNA at a 100 per line & 100 lines per page they would fill over how many pages? ___1000_____ (divide 10 million by 10,000). To get a simple phrase like “to be or not to be” by randomly typing letters would be 1 out of over 1015or 1 out of __1,000,000,000,000,000______.
    8. The theory of chemical evolution says chance mutations are the explanation for how those first DNA molecules for the first cell got in the right order to work and work together. Random mutations are also the explanation that the theory of evolution has for how the DNA formed to make wings and eyes and every living thing on earth. If the ATCG’s were floating around in an ancient ocean or pond and started to connect together, what would be the chance of getting an A first? (Assume there are lots of ATCG’s in equal numbers) 1 out of _4__ or 1/4.
    9. What are the chances of getting two A’s in a row? You need to write all the possible combinations of 2 letters that could be made from the 4 ATCG’s: AT, TA, AA, AG, _TT,TA,TC,TG,GG,GA,GT,GC,CC,CA,CT,CG_______. There are _16__ different combinations so the chances of getting one is 1 out of 16 which is ¼ x ¼ .
    10. To get 3 ATCG’s such as AGA in the correct order would be ¼ x ¼ x ¼ or (1/4)3 = 1/43 = 1/64th. To get 4 in the right order is one out of 4 to the 4th or . What power of 4 is 64? __4__ Do you see the same pattern as the coins? A gene is the smallest section of DNA that has the code to make a protein. Natural selection can CHOOSE good genes, but not CREATE them. Natural Selection explains the SURVIVAL of the fittest, not the ARRIVAL of the fittest. Smaller sections of DNA are useless and thus natural selection can’t choose them. What are the odds of getting a small gene of 300 ATCG’s in the right order to make a simple protein? It’s ¼ times itself 300 times or 1 out of 4 300th power = about 10 240th. Is this possible? What are the odds of getting a simple cell of only 250 genes? Even if only 20% of the DNA code needs to be right (only 20% of the ATCGs coding for the protein Cytochrome C may need to be in the correct order for it to work) that is still over 20% of 250 x 300 = _15,000__ ATGC’s in the right order! The odds of getting that by chance is ¼ to the _15,000th___ power. Now let’s change that into a power of 10. 45 = 103 and 410 = 106 , use this 5:3 ratio to convert the chances of getting a simple cell's ATCG’s into 1 out of 10 to what power (hint:45,000 = 103,000)? _9,000_ =1 with __9,000__zeros!
    11. But couldn’t lots of different orders work? Just like in a human language a number of different orders of 100 letters could make “sense” or work in the cell. However it is a small number compared to the orders that don’t work. It varies from protein to protein but is clearly a small fraction less than 1 in a thousand – especially if protein 2 must fit with and work with protein 1 – like parts of a flagellum, just as sentences have to go together or a new part of a car must fit the other parts. The first gene might be less difficult because it could be any of possibly billions of orders but then the next one (like the next sentence in a book) needs to fit with the first one so it must be pretty specific. A perfect feather gene may have no use in a tree. All 250 genes must be in the same place at the same time, you can’t have 249 sitting around waiting for the 250th one to appear, they will start breaking back down in seconds. Does it seem likely that a cell’s genes could get in order by chance? __no___
    12. Could this happen in 15 billion years (the estimated age of the universe)? To get 10 heads in a row with only ten flips is hard but if you have 100,000 flips it’s easy. Evolution says that with lots of time and chance genes must have formed. How many “flips of the coin” did nature have? Calculate the maximum number of atomic/chemical events (collisions where atoms could combine) in the whole universe in 20 billion years by multiplying the number of atoms in the universe [6 x 1023 atoms per gram x mass of an average star and it's planets (1035g) x # of stars (1022) in the universe = about 1080 ] by the number of collisions an atom may make per second (1011) times the number of seconds in 20 billion years (60 s/min x 60 min/hr x 24 hr/day x 365 days/yr x 20,000,000,000 yrs = 1017 sec.). (Hint: add the exponents:104 x 102 = 106 or 1,000,000). Thus the total number of atomic events is less than 1080 x 1011 x 1018 = _10109_. Thus anything with odds greater than 1 out of 10109 is impossible. This includes single genes only 300 ATCG’s long (10180) or monkeys typing a sentence by chance with only 100 letters! The total number of events in the universe is far too few to explain the information in one gene or the first cell or a wing or an eye or the over 1% difference between our DNA and a Chimp’s. 1% of 10,000,000+ ATCG’s is still _100,000_ ATCG's for odds of less than 1 out of 4 to the _100,000_ or 1/10 60,000 (1 with 60,000 zeros after it-worse than a simple cell in #10). All major steps in the development of life are similar.
    13. In the calculations above we assumed a gene or a genome of a first cell could form outside and before a cell existed. That’s not possible according to the 2nd law of thermodynamics and chemistry (see H. Blum, Time's Arrow and Evolution). Large DNA molecules, like genes, only form in cells with many enzymes (special proteins). We have a chicken or the egg problem on top of all this – you need 60+ enzymes to make DNA and you need DNA or at least large RNA to make enzymes! Both need a cell to protect and concentrate molecules and keep other molecules out and ways to remove product so the reaction doesn’t stop and reverse. For Natural Selection to choose good ATCG orders they must already be in the right order to produce a useful molecule that helps a cell survive. ATGC’s don’t produce anything useful for life until they are at least 100’s in a row in the right order (a gene). T or F That is impossible by CHANCE in our universe. We just proved it mathematically.
    14. Useless, self replicating (copying) RNA strands do not give you more information – they just makes more copies of random sequences. Making more copies of random letters doesn’t make a poem or a book. RNA would still have to convert over to the DNA and protein language of life. Copying nonsense just gives you more _nonsense_.
    15. DNA needs protein enzymes to copy itself and do it’s job, yet the enzymes need DNA to design them. It is one of thousands of “chicken or the egg” problems found in life. Can you think of another? __Flagellum? First cell?__
    16. Natural Selection is not the answer, it does not guide mutations. It only acts AFTER the structure or useful molecule produced by a new gene appears. Natural selection can only choose reproducing things that already exist, it can't CREATE anything!! Nor do the laws of nature – there is no self ordering law for DNA or proteins. What CAN create information? (what is needed to write a sentence or build a car?) ___Intelligence_______
    Francis Crick (agnostic biochemist-co discoverer of the DNA double helix) did not believe chance could explain the first cell. Sir Frederick Hoyle (atheist astronomer) and Wickramasinghe (mathematician) estimate in Evolution from Space, that the odds of getting a simple cell’s DNA by chance mutations is 1 out of 1040,000 . We are left with 2 questions concerning DNA and the origin of life. 1. How did DNA for a cell get in the right order? 2. How did it form at all before cells existed? What is your hypothesis for the origin of DNA and the information needed for life?

    Gerhard Adam
    Your analysis is wrong.  Chance is not required in the sense that you express it, since no one is arguing or has ever claimed that a cell was formed from a singular event.  Such probability arguments are fundamentally flawed, because of an acute misunderstanding of the term "random" in this context.  Chemistry isn't "random".  Life isn't "random".

    If it's not chance, then we are closer to being on the same page. It's not laws of chemistry - there are no self ordering laws in the chemistry of proteins and DNA, that's what makes them so able to carry information - and it's not natural selection which can't work until you have replicating units. I know Chem isn't random but the order of amino acids and nucleotides is not determined by chemistry or natural selection.

    Thanks for responding - I know this debate seems to get tiresome - it may be because Daniel Gilbert's psychological immune system theory where we tend to see the side we like. I am in a unique position in that I would be glad if the probability arguments could be disproven. My 2 places of teaching (college level) employment would prefer that I accepted evolution and my family already thinks I accept evolution because I accept common ancestry (see my blog http://zygotetheory.wordpress.com/2007/09/02/zygote-theory/).

    Paul

    Gerhard Adam
    ...natural selection which can't work until you have replicating units.
    That's true, but you don't need natural selection to have replicating units.  Oscillating chemical reactions, as well as chemical that perform regulatory functions occur without anything special being involved.

    So much of what we consider biochemistry really involves a type of repeating [or even oscillating] chemistry.  The continuous, repeatable actions that produce predictable results.

    Similarly, we already know that the molecules that make up the cell walls or cell membranes align in that fashion without manipulation.  It is the "natural" method of forming with "natural" alignments.  There is no more special actions involved that iron filings aligning themselves with a magnetic field.

    We may not know what a field is, but we certainly see the ramifications of its existence.

    The simple truth is that we don't know how life began, so no matter what explanation anyone gives, it would be speculative.  Certainly there may be many things wrong with any proposed model, not the least of which is our ignorance of the precise conditions present on the Earth.

    We just don't know.  The point at which evolution begins, presumes that these difficulties have already been resolved, so that we have a replicating entity which is capable of competing sufficiently to be "selected".   However, even this may well occur simply by accident.  There is nothing fundamental to biology that says that one couldn't have had organisms that were essentially "immortal", capable of surviving on the resources surrounding them, indefinitely.  There is no biological reason that such an organism needs to commit energy for reproduction or anything else.  It could essentially maintain itself "forever".

    This could well have been some of the early conditions, however, we can also surmise that any organism that DID successfully replicate [even if it occurred by accident] would be capable of introducing so many more competitors, that it would rapidly overrun the existing population of organisms until it dominated the environment.  Without replication, the "immortals" would have been doomed by such a change.

    In short, there are numerous scenarios that one can suggest, but none of them are random in any mathematical sense of the word.  They are merely unpredictable, because we lack the necessary information by which to make a prediction [assuming that there is ever enough data for such a formulation].
    Analogs can't produce information - only set repetitions of the same orders. A prebioltic blob is no more a cell than a water balloon. The membrane has to be produced by the DNA and that information doesn't go from structure to DNA but from DNA to structure. The more we understand about the machinery of the cell. They less likely it could come together by itself.
    BTW - we don't have to specify the designer or explain (his/her/it's) origin any more than a forensics expert needs to ID the killer to know that it was a murder.

    Gerhard Adam
    The membrane has to be produced by the DNA...
    Nope ...
    http://www.ifa.hawaii.edu/~meech/a281/handouts/Deamer_astrobio02.pdf
    ...we don't have to specify the designer or explain (his/her/it's) origin any more than a forensics expert needs to ID the killer to know that it was a murder.
    Of course you do.  You can't simply postulate any type of killer.  You need to find one that not only fits the crime, but one that has a physical, definable existence.  It isn't just a haphazard process, which is precisely why alibis exonerate accused individuals.

    However, you want to propose a designer, without any concept of how "they" even came into existence, but you want to attribute all manner of power ... sorry ... doesn't work.
    Accidental pre biotic spheres are not the same as cell membranes which are generated from the DNA, though it was an interesting article, it does not overcome the information problem.

    And no, I do not have to ID the killer to know it was murder, I don't have to ID the designer to know DNA was designed
    but I cold postulate a number of designers from
    1. An Alien biologist on another planet that seeded our planet with life now and then
    2. An alien biologist in another universe
    3. the ultimate alien biologist outside all universes - God

    I believe God does most everything through natural laws from wind and rain to food and healing but He's allowed to interact and apparently has, form occasional creation events to miracles and the resurrection of Christ (which is well documented - 11 guys don't go to their death for a lie - they saw something that convinced them of life after death)

    Gerhard Adam
    11 guys don't go to their death for a lie ...
    You can't be that naive.
    Have you ever looked into the evidence for the resurrection or have you rulled it out a prior? You cannot scientifically say it did not happen unless you were there to observe it (scientific observation) NOT happening. The best you can do is say you can't explain it with known science. I agree, I can't either. But I can't explain it away as a hoax, legend, hallucination, or anything else I know of.

    Gerhard Adam
    The subject is outside of scientific query.  Therefore for something like a resurrection to have occurred, it must have required a miracle, therefore it is requiring something that is outside of science for an explanation.

    Whether it happened or not, it is outside of science to ask or answer the question.  So you can believe what you'd like, but it can't be scientifically demonstrated.
    But I can't explain it away as a hoax, legend, hallucination, or anything else I know of.
    Meaning what?  Because you can't explain it, you're considering it plausible?

    In any case, your point about 11 men is what is naive. 
    Naive? because I
    1. consider there to be more than just the physical world? (Big Bang proves that)or
    2. naive because you think they lied to me and I was gullible? (they believed it = they died because of it) or
    3. naive because you think they were naive for being martyred for preaching that they saw Christ risen when they could have denied it and lived? or do you not accept the historic accounts of their deaths (not found in the Bible so it's OK for materialists to believe).

    that they died for the account tells us it was not a legend made up later by overzealous followers - in fact they ridiculed the first reports themselves and Thomas wouldn't believe until he had empirical evidence - first hand. I too am very skeptical and had to be faced with the evidence clearly.

    It's not like they all sat around thinking about what could have made the tomb empty, then came up with a resurrection story that they then died for because there was no other option. No, it's based on eye witness accounts of Christ being see by over 500 people at one time and dozens of others (no such thing as a mass hallucination).

    Who moved the Stone is a book by a skeptic who became a believer after studying the evidence. You are rejecting the claim, apparently, without even examining it based on your BELIEF that mater is all there is - that is a belief , you cannot demonstrate that scientifically, it is a metaphysical position, not science.

    but I do love the challenge of trying to make a case for you - I'm curious what your beliefs are about ultimate reality. If they are purely materialistic, how do decide what is right or wrong, or even why you should get out of bed in the morning? What's the point? If there is no point, why are you wasting your precious time on a blog? Who cares what is true or false? It doesn't matter, all our ideas and actions are pointless, dust in the wind. It's naive to think you can live life as a total materialist/atheist - you will usually borrow values and morals from the religious but claim they aren't true, yet live as if they were.

    hope this isn't too blunt, but I had to face the ultimate implications when I considered materialism/naturalism as a college student. I realized that I had no reason to trust my mind to give me metaphysical truth about what's ultimately real if I was only a bag of atoms produced by a pointless and meaningless universe.

    Gerhard Adam
    Your original statement was this:
    ...11 guys don't go to their death for a lie...
    Now, given that in the U.S. the 9/11 attack was precipitated by 19 terrorists that also chose to die.

    Why do you think I would call you naive after making such a statement?
    OK - good point, I forgot to add - "a lie they made up and knew was a lie".

    They never agreed about much of anything, suddenly they are dying for saying they saw.a risen Christ. What they saw gave them courage to die. If they didn't see Christ alive they had no reason to think they would - in fact honesty was a high value, if they died knowingly lying or sinning they risked punishment, not reward.

    The disciples died for refusing to deny an event they witnessed - they could have avoided death by saying it was a hoax but didn't - non of them "cracked". THEY thought it was true because they SAW it - it wasn't some philosophy they dreamed up and went out to fool people

    Jesus told them they would rise just like he did. If Jesus didn't rise - they had no reason to think they would either. Seeing him alive was the reason they believed they wold survive being killed. They had no reason to voluntarily give up their lives for knowingly teaching a lie.

    Thus the question is, "Who moved the stone?" this is one of the key, undisputed facts: an empty tomb.

    If they stole the body to start a hoax they would know they would be just as dead when they got caught and for what? No Christian believes that God grants eternal life for stealing bodies. I find it interesting that they were never charged formally with the crime the authorities claimed they committed - I guess the authorities also knew it was false and that something else had happened. The authorities also did not execute the guards even though they executed other guards later for letting Peter escape. Execution was a good way to keep guards from taking bribes. The Authorities also knew the tomb was empty, thus the need for the stolen body story. The authorities only had to produce the body of Jesus to stop the disciples preaching, which was really annoying them.

    Lot's of people die for lies and crazy ideas, but not a group that decided to make up something themselves. The 9/11 terrorists died killing other people because they wanted a better existence but thought they had to at least be trying to kill "bad" people in order for them to get their reward. I too think they were deceived BY SOMEONE ELSE. They didn't make up the ideas themselves.

    Gerhard Adam
    Sorry, but you're trying to cobble together a circumstantial case based on questionable evidence [i.e. all of it third-party and consequently hearsay]. 

    I'm not interested in arguing your religious beliefs with you.  Believe whatever you choose, that's fine.  However, your attempt to make this some logical case, just doesn't hold.  I found find exactly the same rationalization from every martyr for whatever religion that ever lived [and died].

    It tells me nothing, other than that there are many people that would die for their beliefs.  That doesn't render them true.
    Thanks for reading - I appreciate you taking the time to banter these ideas around.

    The authors of the gospels, at least Matt Mark and John were first hand eye witnesses who died for their testimony, it's not 3rd hand hear-say. They have copies that go back to within 100 years of the originals so it's probably 99% what they actually wrote. No other book has the textual support of the Bible.

    I wish you the best and may we all continue to seek the truth = the best position for a being who will never know it all, a seeker.

    Gerhard Adam
    I have to disagree.  While many people share your view, the truth is that no one knows who wrote the gospels, so to assign them eye-witness credibility .... sorry ... can't be done.

    In fact, the Gospels are all anonymous - they don't actually say who wrote them.
    http://www.facingthechallenge.org/gospels.php
    You talked about chemical processes producing structures. Chemical laws or analogs can do that but not information. Analogs can't produce information - only set repetitions of the same orders. A pre-biotic blob is no more a cell than a water balloon. The membrane has to be produced by the DNA and that information doesn't go from structure to DNA but from DNA to structure. The more we understand about the machinery of the cell. They less likely it could come together by itself.
    BTW - we don't have to specify the designer or explain (his/her/it's) origin any more than a forensics expert needs to ID the killer to know that it was a murder.
    You will never accept a designer no matter how strong the evidence because you have assumed that it happened without one and no matter how impossible it looks you think it happened and you are willing to imaging "scaffolded" cells (that couldn't work any more than a model car is a working car, just LOOKS similar) or blobs of lipids that get mechanically split in two by waves = nothing like a real cell doing fission! Fission comes from within the cell, not due to external jostling. Information goes from DNA to cells parts, not the other way around. You accuse I’D’ of magic, well it gets to a point where imaginary non-life to life sceneries look magical as well – without empirical support. In fact with a lot of empirical opposition to half cells working.

    RNA ribozymes are like photocopy machines, They copy whatever you put on them, but they don't write books. Garbage copied is not information. There is no way to select for information if the orders don't do anything - you just get more copies of junk and the working orders are so few, that to get 200 together that work together is impossible. Especially since your ribozymes would probably break down larger molecules unless you had the specially. The minimal cell is like a go cart, it still needs basic parts to work together all at the same time, assembled in the right order.

    You should ask yourself what proof you would accept in order to understand that you are biases by naturalistic metaphysics that are preventing you from considering logical alternatives. Naturalism can't be proven by science and the Big Bang shows that there must be something before and outside of nature. You can't use nature to explain its own origin.
    I have a power point I could send you - and there are the books by Behe, Demski and Stephen Meyer and many others though I'm not sure facts matter once you have your mind made up. Politically the scientific community has decided to ban thinking in this area so progress will be difficult. It’s too dangerous career wise for scientists to take on an established paradigm. It may take an Einstein.
    On the other hand, I don't have my mind made up - I can imaging the gap between prebiotic and biotic getting smaller and smaller and have seen it shrink some in my lifetime (I'm 59). I don’t have a problem with God using His natural laws to make rain or mountains or life. I’m not biased in that way. There are those who can’t believe in evolution as you can’t believe in a designer but I’m not one of them. Neither is Behe.
    The Big Bang convinced me that there are forces beyond nature.

    I noticed the exponents didn't copy over well

    Now let’s change that into a power of 10. 45 = 103 and 410 = 106 , use this 5:3 ratio to convert the chances of getting a simple cell's ATCG’s into 1 out of 10 to what power (hint:45,000 = 103,000)

    should be

    Now let’s change that into a power of 10. 4^5 = 10^3 and 4^10 = 10^6 , use this 5:3 ratio to convert the chances of getting a simple cell's ATCG’s into 1 out of 10 to what power (hint:4^5,000 = 10^3,000)

    on the source of the universe:

    This seems to be a major block for naturalists when considering design, they are close minded when it comes to the supernatural, yet there must be a supernatural - the Big Bang says so - though maybe not the one they picture and reject.

    Are there non-religious scientific and logical arguments for a higher ultimate reality beyond the physical world or universe? Astronomy tells us that the universe is expanding and running down. Both of those facts tell us that it is not eternal but had a beginning, a start or creation. Logic tells us that you can’t get something from nothing. True nothing can do nothing, if it could it wouldn’t be true nothing and you would have to explain its origin. If nothing is a cause, then it is something and needs an explanation for its existence and tremendous creative power. If it is truly nothing, then it can’t be a cause. Believing in nothing as the cause is not scientific, it’s metaphysical. It is not based on observation but a leap of faith to metaphysical belief since no one can actually observe what was before the Big Bang. The cause always precedes and exceeds the effect (there is always a bit of energy lost). The universe can’t create itself; you can’t even use the laws of nature to explain their own origin. The origin of the universe (or multiverse) is thus beyond scientific explanation. Therefore the cause of the universe is greater than the universe and existed prior to and apart from it. Since it is illogical to have an infinite regression of universes coming from universes ad infinitum (even if there may be a multiverse which Ellis & George (2008) question), logically, the very first cause would be nonmaterial since everything we know about material universes tells us they run down and thus need a cause to start them. A common objection is then made asking where the cause came from. If the cause is non-material, it may not be running down the way the universe is and thus not need a beginning. SOMETHING had to always be there! Remember, no infinite regressions. Therefore to summarize:

    1. The universe is running down and expanding
    2. Thus it had a beginning
    3. The cause must be greater than and exist before and apart for the universe.
    4. Therefore the cause of the universe is supernatural or outside nature.

    There are several lines of evidence that lead to the idea that the cause may be intelligent, a self-aware unity and teleological or planful. First, the laws of nature are incredibly fine-tuned to millionths or more of a degree accuracy in some cases. Second, if the cause exceeds the effect and one of the effects of the universe is intelligent persons, the cause could be an intelligent person or more. Maybe multiple persons in a total unity. The evidence for the unity of the cause is the unity of the effect: a universe with the same harmonious laws throughout, one with conflicting laws or different laws in different parts. If there were several supernatural non-material causes, it would seem that one would be primary or ultimate unless they were totally equal and unified. Totally unified causes are essentially one cause, like a unified team with one goal and one plan to follow.

    The fact that there is something instead of nothing, one of the great philosophical mysteries, may indicate that the cause chose, or willed (traits of a personality) to make something including time at a particular moment before time. A great intelligence could predict or could know of my existence and care about it. If I made a universe I would be interested in the most complex structure in it: the human brain. If the universe has love, it implies that the cause of the universe could have even greater love.

    Congruence with religion is not promoting religion any more than teaching the Big Bang Theory. The Big Bang implies a creation event which is consistent with monotheistic religions like Christianity, Judaism and Islam. They all believe there was a non-material Being first that produced the material world. Schools don’t avoid teaching about the Big Bang just because it has implications that are consistent theistic beliefs. The term Big Bang was coined by atheist Sir Frederick Hoyle in the 50's who was mocking the idea because he realized the theistic implications of a creation moment, a beginning of the universe. He preferred the Steady State Theory where the universe was eternal but discoveries of the expanding universe in the last century ruled out an eternal universe.
    Likewise, scientists should not avoid talking about the fine tuning of the laws of the universe just because it may imply an intelligent cause. We can't rule out design philosophically or scientifically - to do so reveals bias.

    Gerhard Adam
    We can't rule out design philosophically or scientifically - to do so reveals bias.
    Then why not simply postulate a Harry Potter universe, where magic rules?

    The reality is that an intelligent cause makes no sense at any level, because it wants to use the one thing it claims can't exist, as the basis for causing it to exist.  It's a complete recursion.
    I understand that it may be hard to imagine - I say, we should at least examine it as an option---but what do you suggest as the cause for an immense, fine tunes universe that is not eternal?

    Gerhard Adam
    ...-but what do you suggest as the cause for an immense, fine tunes universe that is not eternal?
    Sorry, but that's precisely what gives rise to your problem in this.  No all answers are known at this point, and some may even be unknowable.  That doesn't grant license to simply make things up.

    The desire to have an immediate explanation is what often drives people to these conclusions provided.  Regardless of what I might answer, it would be pure speculation and my answer would have no more significance than suggesting a Harry Potter universe.

    If you wish to discuss such subjects with a qualified physicist, then I'm sure there's far more explanations available than I can concoct and that you're familiar with.  However, this has nothing to do with biology.
    Gerhard Adam
    ...-but what do you suggest as the cause for an immense, fine tunes universe that is not eternal?
    Sorry, but that's precisely what gives rise to your problem in this.  No all answers are known at this point, and some may even be unknowable.  That doesn't grant license to simply make things up.

    The desire to have an immediate explanation is what often drives people to these conclusions provided.  Regardless of what I might answer, it would be pure speculation and my answer would have no more significance than suggesting a Harry Potter universe.

    If you wish to discuss such subjects with a qualified physicist, then I'm sure there's far more explanations available than I can concoct and that you're familiar with.  However, this has nothing to do with biology.
    You wrote:
    The reality is that an intelligent cause makes no sense at any level, because it wants to use the one thing it claims can't exist, as the basis for causing it to exist. It's a complete recursion.

    expand a bit - what is that one thing?

    Gerhard Adam
    Intelligent design postulates the existence of an intelligence to explain the creation of intelligence.  It's recursive. 

    You can't simply presume the existence of the very thing you're attempting to explain.
    hmm -- are you saying the cause must be less than the effect?

    Intelligence comes from intelligence all the time (thank your mom and your teachers) - that's one reason why evidence for design implies an intelligence behind it. That's why we assume intelligence was behind the heart drawn in the sand , and as we see more parallels between DNA and coded human language and computer programs it leads us to a similar conclusion.

    Seems to make more sense than saying nothing created everything, or a tiny something with no order or design produced an incredible massive and elegant universe all by itself = the cause is less than the effect.

    forgive me if I am repeating myself -

    Since it is illogical to have an infinite regression of universes coming from universes ad infinitum. Logically, the very first cause would be SOMETHING non-material since everything we know about material universes tells us they run down and thus need a cause to start them. A common objection is then made asking about the origin of the cause or source of the universe. If the cause is non-material, it may not be running down the way the material universe is and thus may not need a beginning. Something had to be there at the start or there would be nothing now, but it couldn't be matter and energy as we know it.

    or do you think we can get something from nothing?

    thanks for listening - I enjoy the mental workout - though I gotta get back to a Lit Review due for a class in my doctoral program tonight

    I agree that not all answers are known or knowable but you can't then turn around and say this one can't be known - you need to be open. You can avoid the big questions but you can't tell others not to ask them or not to ask you when you too are making pronouncements that there can't be a God just because we can't explain Him? Where is the evidence against a creator being?

    This is related to biology for the fine tuning of the universe allows for a large variety elements and large life. Whoever, or whatever, fine tuned the universe for life may have help with the design of life.

    I like how this article forgets to mention the fact that 70% of mutations are harmful, with only the remaining 30% being neutral or weakly beneficial. So somehow a process that nets a 70% loss is supposed to ADD enough information that could advance basic pond scum into a fully sentient human being.

    I've watched enough Sci-fi to be able to call bull-shit when I see it.

    Gerhard Adam
    Sure ... and I call bullshit when some makes up numbers like that too.  You clearly don't understanding how any of this works.