Doomsday Comet Elenin Goes Out With A Whimper
By Hank Campbell | September 18th 2011 04:00 AM | 342 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments

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2012 is coming and, with it, kooky end-of-the-world fables.  If the Asgardian calendar and its earthquakes doesn't get us, maybe the Mayans will.  Some people even like to combine Doomsday prophecies - the LHC might bring the end of the world by opening a black hole and out pop Mayans armed with strangelet-powered weapons.

In reality, the LHC couldn't hurt a fly with its energy (though I wouldn't stick my hand in it while it's LHC-ing, that could go to a weird place physically) and the Mayans had five calendars and they all restarted, as calendars do, so the end of this calendar to them could be basically our Saturday.  The Asgardians were a little more forgiving in their astronomy, so the Apocalypse could be tomorrow or any time over the next 150 years.

What apparently will not happen is that Comet Elenin will have anything to do with it.  Once rumored to be ending the world starting October 16th, 2011, its apocalyptic possibilities collapsed faster than the earthquake doomsday predictions of Harold Camping ( okay, that reference is pretty obscure, since his 15 minutes of fame were up May 21st, see So The Rapture Is Saturday - Luckily The Grey's Anatomy Season Finale Was Last Night  to refresh your memory), though at least he wasn't actually debunked until May 21st whereas Comet Elenin is being debunked in my column a month ahead of Doomsday Hour.  That doesn't mean people have given up hoping they'll be right and the world will end.

The Elenin doomsday talk began Dec. 10, 2010 when Russian astronomer Leonid Elenin (all the best stuff happens with Russian scientists) 'remotely' discovered it using International Scientific Optical Network's robotic observatory in New Mexico (all the best stuff happens in New Mexico) and immediately weirdos began blaming it for earthquakes, storms on Saturn and predicting it would flip Earth's magnetic field - despite it being really small and twice as far away as the Sun.

Why the hype?  People can't (or won't) do basic math. Since it was 1/100,000,000,000th the mass of the Moon and wouldn't ever be even 90 Moon-Earth distances (22 million miles) from us, it might exert 1/100,000,000,000,000th the force of the moon's tidal pull on Earth.  Essentially, nothing, unless the gravitational effect of a speck of dust on your car is a concern.

Trajectory of comet Elenin. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

So, no 'three days of darkness', because it was never crossing the Sun's path anyway, and it was only 2 miles wide - the Sun is 400,000 times the size of Comet Elenin so it was not casting any shadow. I say 'was' and you may have noticed other past tense expressions in previous paragraphs - because it turns out to be disintegrating even while we make fun of people over their hysteria believing it was ever a concern.  Australian astronomer Michael Mattiazzo made the animated .gif below showing that it may be not even really be a comet any more.   A solar flare last month may have blasted it to basically nothing.

Credit: Michael Mattiazzo

Another astronomer, Comet Al, says Elenin is still visible in the STEREO HI1A imager and made this animation below, but it is clearly nothing to speculate about any differently than any other comet and certainly not a world ending event.

Credit: algwat

Unless, of course, the Hand of God smote it using a solar flare before it could hurt us.  That opens up a new realm of conversation for conspiracy websites.

Goodbye C/2010 X1.  We hardly knew ye.

Need to have more questions answered about Comet Elenin?  Comet Elenin - now with less Doomsday hype

Entertaining introduction to me, and exit for us all, of the comet Elenin!

Believe it or not, but I too will jump on the doomsday wagon this autumn. Only 'my' doomsdays will be so much more real. Definitely more real than winning in Las Vegas. You just wait and see. :-) I'm not kidding, Hank! :-)
Bente Lilja Bye is the author of Lilja - A bouquet of stories about the Earth
I bet I would believe it.  The LHC conspiracy people made mistakes in basic algebra, the Elenin people needed a magical event (something would have to deflect it 22 million miles and aim it right at us) but with your knowledge, you could create a really scary-yet-plausible scenario that would get them all buzzing.

Use your power for good, not evil, Bente!
Hank,

You cannot possibly make any calculations as to the gravitation pull of an object without knowing its composition.
Yes is could have a tremedous pull on the earth if it were made of the heavest material in the universe.
You sound like you know it all but actually you just made a huge math mistake.... you dont have the whole equation.

Mike

If the comet were not around half ice and half silicates (so a density around 1), like other comets, its gravitational effect would have been noticed long ago.

Again, in another comment I showed exactly how to do the calculation of its size.  If this mysterious super-heavy material has never existed in the universe but is showing up now (pagan magic, I must suppose, which should annoy the religious types hoping the world is ending) its gravity would be quite noticeable and not be localized, like supposedly causing an earthquake.

You'd suddenly be able to dunk a basketball through a hoop 20 feet high, for example.  If you can't do that, then this tiny comet cannot possibly have the mass to even raise the tide on Earth 1/100,000th of an inch.

On another note there are heavier elements than the ones found one earth.
Elements are formed by supernovas and disappear during radioactive decay over millions of years.
The heaviest elements in our universe have decayed and are gone. That we know of but there are still supernovas happening all the time and creating those
super dupper heavy elements you call magical just like the one scientist watches in 2006. Its funny to hear people who think they are exposing a lie talk about something they know nothing about.

http://scienceblogs.com/startswithabang/2009/04/is_uranium_the_heaviest_...

Again we are to assume you went there and have samples
and that is the basis for your conclusions.
Lets say you didn't and we use Plutonium and the element.
Whats is your gravitational pull then?

Ethan is a good guy.  You should definitely write him and present your ultra-dense comet speculation.  You seriously think that comet is made of plutonium and no one knows what a comet is made of unless they fly there?  Is there any science at all you do accept?

Anyway, you seem to have read his article and that means you know a comet made of plutonium would have...no gravitational impact at all from 22 million miles away.  And no gravitational impact from 2 million miles away. It would have to hit us, which is impossible, to have an impact.

You do realize this thing is really small?  It is not magically an invisible star with some huge mass.
I guess my biggest point is that we all make assumptions based on what we know. History has proven over and over we really know very little about anything,In fact we are discovering every day that our science is flawed because of new discoveries. Nothing is impossible and do not say "NEVER" . Every time I have used that word I am proven wrong. There are substances that are so heavy that a spoonful would be impossible for us to lift.
How do I know this ?
Lets look at our universe as a whole and try to conceive that everything in it is outweighed by 90 times a mass that we cannot see or even discover yet.

That's how I know... nothing is impossible.

Look at Science Fiction and you will see almost all has come true so far.

OH and if you ask the Japanese they will tell you your Government will lie to you to keep people from panicing. They would rather see you die than panic.

Nothing is impossible and do not say "NEVER" .
Okay, if you jump off your roof are you going to float?   Is there any chance at all you will not fall?  If you accept that you will fall, then saying you will "NEVER" magically fly is valid.  Academically speculating that in an infinite universe you might be able to float is idiotic because it fails the first real test.

Comet Elenin is "NEVER" going to have any impact on us and "NEVER" has.   By all means, quote me on that.  Because Sept. 27th or October 16th or 12/21/12 or whatever other dates conspiracy mills invent to get traffic will come and go and I will be right.   100% certainty.
You can derive the mass of a object in orbit, by it's orbit. That's why they know approximately what the mass is. And how super-massive black hole mass is calculated.

Lets look at our universe as a whole and try to conceive that everything in it is outweighed by 90 times a mass that we cannot see or even discover yet.

Again, you know some of it, but get the rest wrong. Visible matter is ~5%, Dark Matter is another 20-25% (a factor of 4 or 5), Dark Energy is the rest, but it (at this time) is not mass, it's energy. The equivalent mass for that energy is the remaining part of the Universe, but it's not mass. Besides it'd be 20x not 90.
Never is a long time.
...every day that our science is flawed because of new discoveries.
Actually it's your reasoning that is flawed.  I can imagine anything more ridiculous that criticizing science for not knowing everything and having every problem solved.  That is the point in science.  If everything were known there wouldn't be any science.

To make such a statement indicates a huge disconnect with what science is about.
Mundus vult decipi
I'm not criticizing it I just don't like absolutes in any area that we really dont know for sure. How many asteroids out of the billions of trillions have we studied.
Would you let a someone who knew so little about something operate on you.
No I think we need to step back and say well if this is just a coincidence then what is happening and go from there. Not totally discredit something because we thing we know and we really have very little studies to go by.
Lets be informative and look for answers instead of trying to discredit. Maybe they are on to something and it needs adjusting. That is called brainstorming.
The truth will come out in the wash....

That is called brainstorming.
No, that's called unsolicited input from people that don't understand the basics.  Brainstorming would be relevant if you were invited into the discussion and had something to contribute.  To simple argue against science and proclaim that your own pet ideas have merit, isn't useful.
Mundus vult decipi
theres no such thing as coincidence...

So if you stub your toe checking the mail, you blame it on a comet 22 million miles away?  Midi-chlorians?  What is the causation for your toe-stubbing?
Hello to all and the writer. I have a question. I've come across reports of the comet being mostly composted of Hydrogen Cyanide. HCN is a natural dielectric. With it's size and other compounds that it may also have. Metals, gases, exe. Could we see this comet act as a capacitor?

You can't mean a capacitor, maybe you mean a battery.  Elenin was basically a ball of dirt - now it is a really tiny ball of dirt. I haven't seen anything speculating it was anything else and hydrogen cyanide is common in comets.

A Comet Tail Of Poisonous Death is a fun science fiction story, but just a story.
Okay, lets just use both but I'm going to lean towards it acting like a capacitor. As it could(just a theory) store an electric charge being a comet that consist of one or more pairs of conductors(random metals) separated by an insulator(Hydrogen Cyanide which is what it's mostly made of given its prominent blue color). But what I would like to know is what will happen when it reaches the area in between the sun and the earth. As in a inferior conjunction alinement where the chances for a massive solar flare my occur. Will it hit a "capacity" and then discharge or be wiped out? Once again I say it may discharge given it history. I seemed to disappear some time ago when it was flying through a different solar system and then reappear on a later date. Not to leave out of the equation how it changes sizes through it's noted travels. I'll be the first to say that it sounds a little "far out there" but I at least it is with in reason I believe. Your thought

Okay, lets just use both but I'm going to lean towards it acting like a capacitor.
Oh, we are in a pretend universe where it can just be a capacitor regardless of the fact that it can't.
As it could(just a theory)...
No, that is not a theory.  Nor is it a hypothesis.  It is just made up by someone who is goofing on the public.
store an electric charge being a comet that consist of one or more pairs of conductors(random metals) separated by an insulator(Hydrogen Cyanide which is what it's mostly made of given its prominent blue color).
No, the blue is done by astronomers to increase visibility for the public.  Ordinary comets are not latched onto by crazy people who infer that the false-color technique infers a greater chemical composition than it has so it is rarely an issue.  Elenin probably does have hydrogen cyanide, because comets do, but if you were next to it the HCN would be 1/3000th the amount it would take to be dangerous to you.  From 22 million miles away it is, well, 22 million miles away.

The rest of this about a miracle battery - sorry, capacitor, though you don't seem to know what one of those is - is just science fiction without the science.  Why speculate about something that was never going to be close enough to matter and is essentially disintegrated?  Is it hiding giant stars and orbiting planets behind its 2-mile size next?
Thank you for your dismissive but at least informative candor.

Once again, a scientist dismisses something he cannot understand. Nice.

Once again an anonymous poster demonstrates that they understand nothing about science and then pretend that they've just said something profound.
Mundus vult decipi
Thank you, that was a good read. I'll go with the finger of God theory thanks.
You have chosen to enter the blue door, one of three doors which contains a kooky end of the world theory too.

The article was what I categorize as 'infotainment' (I consider that a positive, FWIW); however the discussion of the Magic Space Capacitor was highly entertaining!

I believe the Hand of God is a credible explanation but my money is on the same benevolent aliens that saved us from oblivion by ramming a flying saucer into the comet over Siberia so many years ago. Although, God may have instructed the aliens to intervene both times...

I don't know much about science and space.... but there was that girl before the Japan tsunami, said it's going to happen because of Elenin and yeah it did happen...I saw it on youtube,, and another professor said there will be another earthquake on august and it did happen..he blame Elenin for that...so I don't know... I hope what you are talking about is true and nothing bad will happen on the next few days....but on the other hand some scientists say there is no global warming they are saying that just to make people less panic.......

Your on the Doomsday bandwagon too ehh? You should be ashamed of yourself and you really shouldn't post articles you don't know anything about. Have you ever even looked for yourself at the SOHO or STEREO telescope images? Tried to verify the sources you indirectly keep promoting? Unfortunately since you chose not to think and were just hoping to get prominent positioning with the news services (easy-quick way to get some attention huh?) ,,, YOU have become the victim not us. You see the playbook is to attack credibility right off the bat by insulting the idea or labeling and then [in an completely biased way] systematically present evidence that only supports your position.

Let me ask you something, do you even know:
- what the UN-IAWN is? Betting you don't and don't care.
- Who the other world-wide prominent scientist are [other than Morrison, Yeomans and "NANCY" (where your data comes from) -- bet ya didnt know that either) and what they are saying. The French, Chinese, Russians, Italians and obviously the Britains and Germans PLUS MANY MORE all have space agencies. But you didn't bother to post any of their work -- dont even know who they are do you?
I could go on but whats the point? You dont care anyway? Your just looking for some quick positioning.
You really should be ashamed of yourself.

So you are contending there is a primary source stating this tiny was-a-comet is going to wreck the world?   In the time you wrote your rant you could have linked to one.  I can't find any, just kooks on conspiracy websites inventing mumbo-jumbo.

So show your sources.   STEREO images are in the article, but you clearly did not read it so you are forgiven for not knowing that.
I couldnt have said it better myself. The man presented opinions and ZERO facts or evidence to support his claims. As a so called "journalist" he should be ashamed, in a position of having a larger voice than others and you choose to spew nonsense to pass it off as fact. Ridiculous....

Well, mass and distance are actually facts.  If you want to persist in some belief an insect 40 miles from you impacts the gravity on your house, go for it.  I have to chuckle at you calling science 'nonsense' because you want to believe in conspiracy hocus-pocus instead.
There is NO EVIDENCE suggesting that comet elenin is gone, only that it went through a dimming process, and is still out there.
IT IS STILL A MAGNITUDE 10-11 ACCORDING TO NASA.
JPL STILL HAS IS LISTED AS A COMET
AND TO THE IDIOT WHO WROTE THIS... ELENIN is passing in front of the sun in an alignment on the 27th, if you weren't an imbread you may have watched the movie NASA made on elenin, and how they bring up the fact "theres a very interesting alignment that takes place on this day"
MORON
DISINFORMANT

Thank you for noting how stupid I am for not understanding that an 'alignment' of dirt 22 million miles away is vital to survival of the planet.  I was under the impression that 'alignment' of chunks of stuff happen 5,000 times per day in space - because they do.

Unfortunately, a month from now when no effect has occurred you will be insisting the secret world order sent a rocket full of Bruce Willis guys into space to blow it up.  Or a giant living monster swallowed it.  Or it hit Counter-Earth or (insert your rationalization/conspiracy tale here)
THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE THAT ELENIN IS GONE!!! Absolutely none. A dimming process Wow, Hey hank what do you think the odds are of Elenin being in alignment the last 3 major earthquakes, and odds of nasa announcing this space junk coming down in the same time period, and evacuating the space station, and the NASA buzzroom shutting down the day after someone posted a revised trajectory, and Nasa giving a warning to all employee's to "prepare", and the testing of the emergency alert system the same day we may pass through elenin's debris field, on the same day YU55, a asteriod 4 times bigger and 4 times closer than the one you guys compare it to that passed in 1976, and obama and other top officials will just happen to be in Denver on September 27th. Hmm the odds dont really stack up in your favor, and those are just the straight facts, none of the numerous other coincidences.
QUIT BEING A TOOL!
QUIT DISINFORMING PEOPLE!

Hey hank what do you think the odds are of Elenin being in alignment the last 3 major earthquakes, and odds of nasa announcing this space junk coming down in the same time period, and evacuating the space station...in Denver on September 27th.
I put those odds at 100%.  What is meaningless is lumping them all in together.  I, for instance, will be wearing blue that day and I will go to a local sports bar for lunch.

If I lump a bunch of meaningless events together and try to imply correlation/causation, it is silly, just like it is silly when you do it.

Please save us all some time and give me your scientifically calculated hard date for the end of the world.  Is it 9/27?  10/16?  Just give me a date.  Then I will write an article proclaiming you are correct if it happens.

DONT WORRY HANK I'll tell you the odds... The odds of Elenin being in alignment the last 2 out of 5 of the WORLDS WORST EARTHQUAKES issssssss...

-------> 1 in 333,000 there's some odds for some of you to chew on

SORRY the odds are----------> 1 in 132,000

Hmmm ... now that you mention it, I wonder if those are the same days I wore my old Van Halen t-shirt.  Hell ... maybe I caused those earthquakes to happen.
Mundus vult decipi
Dang it. I was SURE it was because I was running my earthquake machine on those days... And to think, I had counted those as positive test results. Oh well, guess it's back to the old drawing board.

No, but it sounds like you might have been the guy that knocked out my internet service on those days.
Mundus vult decipi
Not the earth-shattering kaboom I was looking for, but mad scientists gotta take what they can get...

Wait, Was it aligned for the last 3 major earthquakes, or is it going to be aligned next week?

Which is it, because it can't be both.
Never is a long time.
I never said the world was ending thats just ridiculous, AND to the alignment comment YES it can be both. Go check out Dr. Mensur Omerbashich data. But i never said the world was ending just that there are some very strange coincidences going on in the same time period. Couple that together with the amount of disinfo (brown dwarf, nibiru, alien etc..) being poured into the subject and it really makes you wonder. All im saying is to make a plan with your family and get a couple bags ready just incase.

AND HANK... About the picture, you truely do look like a homo

Oh, you didn't mention Dr. Mensur Omerbashich before.  Now I know you're a whack-job.
Mundus vult decipi

So, How can it possibly have been in prior alignment, please please tell me how?

And as I pointed out in another post, if you don't believe this projected orbit, get a telescope (http://www.telescope.com) and figure it out for yourself!

As for the disinfo, what do you think you're doing but spreading disinformation!
Never is a long time.
Oh, wow. So the planets go around the sun.... Following? And Elenin's path is from out in space... Keeping up? And so as Elenin approached our Sun, Earth has been moving this whole time. And so Earth has been in between Elenin and the Sun at least a few times. And each of the last three times, there has been a very significant earthquake. NASA gave out the above image in a download that allowed people to view Elenin's suspected path. On the exact day of the computer's alignment, the earthquakes came. Japan's earthquake was "predicted" by many. Its easy when you have a model from NASA's JPL to use.

Kelly,
Orbital mechanics, as the picture shows, does not allow this. Elenin's is a long period comet, at most can only be aligned between the earth and the sun once per orbit. Now if were to be trapped into a small inner solar system orbit that would be different, but it's not!

BTW, At least not in the last 36,000 years (if that is indeed it's period), has it been between the earth and the sun, because it's still heading towards the inner solar system.

Another anonymous post above questioned Elenin's ability to be gravitationally bound to the sun at the far reaches of it's orbit. But the Sun's gravitational well extends way out past the Oort cloud, It would have to go somewhere about half way to alpha centauri (which is 4.3 light years away), before it leave Sol's influence.
Never is a long time.
ha ha ... so you are stupid and a bigot?  That tells us all we need to know about your Invisible-Star-Will-Kill-Us-All crowd.
it was aligned during all of the last major earthquakes, AND the next alignment is sept26/27th

and what does a van halen t-shirt or sports bar have to do with a comet in space?

if you're looking for correlation, it would be like saying you got pulled over for a DUI cuz u were drinking at the bar, cuz some dude liked ur van halen shirt and bought u shots.

No, because you see you're misunderstanding the issue of correlation and causation.  My Van Halen t-shirt can just as readily be correlated to earthquakes as your comet alignment can.  However correlation does NOT equal causation.  So until you connect that particular dot, my Van Halen t-shirt is just as viable a cause as your comet is.
Mundus vult decipi
This is not true sir. This comet has been flying around space for thousands and thousands of years, building up electrical charge. Do you really know what it is made of, where it came from? What about that report that the Russians prepared warning that Comet Elenin was being followed by "celestial objects". This report is real, what do you make of it? You're shirt, on the other hand, has been sitting in your dresser, and on your sweaty incompetent back. Please start making some sense here. Lets get off this correlation bs and go back to the facts. Comet Elenin is a LONG PERIOD comet that has NEVER been witnessed by man-kind before. It'd be niave to jump into a debate saying it WONT do this, or it WILL do this for that matter. The facts are, there is such a LACK of information on this, and a BOAT LOAD of coincidences. So, where do we start?

All I know is, Van Halen kicks ass, and has had plenty of earth shaking impacts on my world. Oh ya, it's Oct 2....so I guess we're still here.

it was aligned during all of the last major earthquakes, AND the next alignment is sept26/27th

and what does a van halen t-shirt or sports bar have to do with a comet in space?

if you're looking for correlation, it would be like saying you got pulled over for a DUI cuz u were drinking at the bar, cuz some dude liked ur van halen shirt and bought u shots.

Comet Elenin is a LONG PERIOD comet that has NEVER been witnessed by man-kind before.

So which is it? A long period comet, never here before, or in alignment many times over the last however many months?

It can't be both!

If you don't understand that, well that explains why you keep spewing nonsense.
Never is a long time.
The simplest answer is probably the correct answer. Its easy to dismiss things because you don't believe its possible. But then you are getting yourself into prophecy.

Hey, here is a thought for you. Before you go insulting people for being "imbread" (it is actually inbred), how about you learn about the principles of grammar, spelling, and syntax first? Whenever I engage in intelligent debate (which you have not done here whatsoever, by the way), I prefer to come across as sounding - oh, you know - intelligent.

Speaking of intelligence, you have given no scientific data in support of your argument against Hank. You have done nothing more than spew even more conspiracy theories with no credible primary sources, which is exactly what his article was effectively debunking. You read the Onion, no? Are you some butthurt columnist who detests the idea of being proven wrong? Hey, it is okay. The Y2K guys survived it, and so will you. Additionally, people with credible data, such as Hank, do not need to resort to name-calling and petty insults in order to make their point, because their logical, valid information speaks for itself. In fact, I found his mathematics to be quite sound, as I whipped out a calculator and worked it out for myself. But then, I know that thar' 'rithmetic...

You, on the other hand, have done nothing more than make yourself look like a "DISINFORMANT" and, moreover, a MORON. I follow NASA (who even published an article debunking any Doomsday theories because of people like yourself), and they have mentioned several "interesting alignments" in the past; interesting, by the way, is an adjective, not a prophecy. But of course, as an ill-educated tabloid reader, you know better than they do, right?

To conclude what I could probably waste a lot more of my time writing... Go back to school.

MORON. :p

you guys are so lame!

it wasn't the hand-of-god. that's an alien hyperdimensional weapon used for planetary defense. it was a joint SS-US military secret space craft that hides behind the sun manipulating the corona with a HAARP to shoot elenin down. keep up!

Great, now people will be quoting Science 2.0 as the source for HAARP conspiracies!  :)
Too funny!!!!...and great entertainment (especially when I'm trying to research the flipside to the conspiracy theories...need a little humor!)...curious to find out if you're gonna' just so happen to be in Denver, CO, 9/27/11 (?)

No, but I got curious enough to Google it.  Taylor Swift concert?  Erasure?  What's in Denver then?
Check out the agenda involving th New World Airport, Denver, 9/27/11...coincidently the same day-ish the 'dirtball' is in line between the sun and the earth...(for sh*ts & giggles peruse 'Comet Elenin Conspiracy Theories' on Facebook...all-in-all a great group of people, not 'sheeple', trying to make some sense out of all of this without slooshing down the slippery side of sanity)

But I don't get what there is to 'make sense' of - there are satellites in line between the sun and the earth all of the time and their impact on the planet is, relatively, the same.
Are you serious?

You are?

Think about the differences between a comet, and a satellite.

If, and its a big if, this comet is having an effect on our planet it would be because it is not something we humans just threw into orbit, it was created from the natural universe.

Do you, relatively, understand that?

This comet may be more of a 'sign' than an 'effect'...it's being related to so many 'coincidental' past and eventual events...I'm concerned that if 'anything' happens on 9/27 (-ish) that all the following dates this 'fuzzball' is scheduled to line up before zipping off into oblivion will be potential dates of significance as well...anyway I appreciate your spin on this regardless...thx!

This journalist is nothing more than a disinfo puppet. A Schill at its best. The proof is in the pudding. Funny how all these articles are being written on how "LOOK, Comet Elenin did nothing to us, YOU SEE." Why would they even waste their time and energy disproving this comet if it was harmless?

Comet Elenin has yet to align bewteen the sun and earth on September 26, 2011. Earth has yet to pass through Elenins tail. If most of us are still here afther Thanksgiving I will gladly eat my words. But for now, your a disinfo puppet. A bad one at that.

The proof is in the pudding.
Then show us some pudding.

So Sept. 26th is your new fairy tale date?  Okay by me.  And Earth will never " pass through Elenins tail", whatever that even means.

By all means come back after Thanksgiving and apologize for libeling strangers - but you'll be off on some new conspiracy theory by then and will have forgotten about this.
Well this is right up there with the 9-11 theories....Hank a serious question a bout that...if each of the 19 terrorists had 8 blocks of C4 explosive strapped to them, what debris of the airliners would be left after impact of the planes?

About 15 stories worth of debris, which is just what there was.
Well this is right up there with the 9-11 theories....Hank a serious question a bout that...if each of the 19 terrorists had 8 blocks of C4 explosive strapped to them, what debris of the airliners would be left after impact of the planes?

Hank Campell,
I think that many of the people that certain elements of the scientific community would label 'kooks' have a good reason to be concerned. There are a few factors that many scientists aren't considering... One would be the FACT that a woman actually PREDICTED the Japanese earthquake - as I understand it, scientists do not understand how to do that of of yet... I am no scientist, but in my science lab I know that we have to consider the possibility that it was some coincidence. There are also other dates that are associated with certain alignments of Elenin, the Earth and the Sun (or some other celestial body) that might make some people think that there is some kind of pattern.

The reason why there are so many "kooks" out there is because there are not many explanations that make people feel comfortable about the predictions that were previously (seemingly) validated by seismic activity; there are not many silencing explanations that thoroughly debunk the ideathat the alignment patterns that correlate to these big earthquakes are just a coincidence. It seems if the scientific community have all just accepted that this thing has no gravitational pull and that any 'patterns' of alignment and seismic activity MUST be a coincidence - after all there are earthquakes everyday..

The reason why so many people are not buying the official story is because many people have a political distrust - or just an overall distrust to all things "official" (media reports, nasa data, etc.. ) "The powers that be" do not seem to be concerned about the well being of those that do not belong on the tip of the pyramid.

So here is my question.. How do we know the mass of this object? Is there a possibility that the data concerning the mass of this object is incorrect? Could it be super super super dense - possibly made up of some element that we have never seen before? As a scientist, you have to accept the possibility that there are elements that exist in the universe that are not on the periodic table.. That being said, as vast as the universe is - we must assume that it is possible that there is some element that exist that is soooo heavy, that if even a small amount of it (the size of a flea) would come in contact with a "supertanker", it could cause a devastating effect. How do we REALLY know what this thing is made of?How can scientifically ignorant people - like me - do my own research and measure the mass of this object? is there a way to do it without using NASA's equipment ?

One would be the FACT that a woman actually PREDICTED the Japanese earthquake - as I understand it, scientists do not understand how to do that of of yet.
This is not so much fact as statistical likelihood.  I can make 16 million people accurately predict earthquakes in Japan and California just by asking them what day of the year an earthquake will happen.  Earthquakes are pretty common.
How do we know the mass of this object? Is there a possibility that the data concerning the mass of this object is incorrect? Could it be super super super dense - possibly made up of some element that we have never seen before?
Comets are around half ice and half silicates so their density is around 1.  The formula for cometary brightness is well known so getting its 'size', and therefore mass, is easy.  There is no no possibility the mass of the object is incorrect the way you are implying - that it is some gigantically dense thing made of some unknown matter that somehow exerts no gravitational effect until it is 22 million miles from Earth, at which time, even though it is 90X as far from us as the Moon, it will cause a tidal wave or whatever.

In 1770 a comet around the same size was 10 times closer and made no difference.  It's fun if you want to go to websites that promote that stuff and worry about the end of the world but it will be frustrating when you find out you were duped.

I agree it would be maybe fun and informative to do this yourself to see why the only people panicking are people who know nothing at all about science.

Cometary brightness in magnitudes is

$J=\frac{Jo}{\Delta^2}F(r)$ and the 'triangle' is distance from Earth (in AU).  The other numbers for the equation you can look up on the NASA site as part of your education process, so you can further see how they determine these things.  You can check your math by comparing what you find with a lot of observations published here.
sorry hon. that one isn't going to work with the conspiracy theorists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1770_Port-au-Prince_earthquake
the haiti earthquake recently was the largest since... 1770.

http://www.volcanolive.com/izalco.html
the volcano was born in 1770.

and this was in a time of limited reporting. maybe, just maybe...

Earthquakes occur EVERYDAY. It's when we talk about quakes that surpass a certain magnitude when it starts mattering to us. Who cares about quakes that we can't feel right?

The following data from http://www.earth.webecs.co.uk/ reveals that earthquakes with magnitudes 7 and higher have been occurring much more often. (I apologize if the copy-paste doesn't come out correctly, format-wise)

DATES FROM & TO PERIOD NO. EARTHQUAKES (Mag. > 6.99)
--------------------------- ----------- ------------------------------
1863 to 1900 incl 38 yrs 12
1901 to 1938 incl 38 yrs 53
1901 to 1938
1939 to 1976 incl 38 yrs 71
1939 to 1976
1977 to 2014 incl * 38 yrs 164 (to Mar. 2011) predict >190 in total.

Well, if you want to extrapolate in one direction, then your "theory" should be capable of extrapolating in the other.  Since you're claiming an increase in quakes, then you're base assumption is that the number of earthquakes only moves in a positive direction.  As a result, from your data, there must have been no earthquakes prior to a few hundred years ago.

You might question why such a result should be true, but consider that if the number of earthquakes prior to 1863 is greater than 12, then your assertion can't be true, because it would represent a value larger than the following years period.  So, if your claim of a gradual increase is true, then it must follow that previous years were always less.

It is humorous to see how people rationalize their pet "theories".  CO2 appears to increase and it's simply a natural earth cycle.  Global temperature appears to increase and it's simply a natural earth cycle.  Animal extinctions appear to increase and it's simply biology.  However, if the number of earthquakes appears to increase suddenly its Armageddon.
Mundus vult decipi
Interesting. I figured there was no data recorded earlier than what was listed because nobody had the right tools (or cared!). I'm not drawing conclusions, I'm just open to what other people are saying and will hear them out. If it's crap in the end, it's crap. No harm done.

Who knows how many earthquakes were prior to the data given/recorded. Who frankly cares. Let's look forward since we haven't been recording long enough to really see any patterns. What if this rising quantities of magnitude 7+ quake trend continues to grow?

You're missing the point.  If the number of earthquakes before 1863 is greater than 12, then we've already established the the increase your suggesting isn't consistent.  In other words, it started higher than 12, but then dropped down to 12.

Therefore IF it is actually increasing, then that means it is also capable of decreasing.  As a result, there is no trend.  It may be a cycle, it may be nothing.
Who knows how many earthquakes were prior to the data given/recorded. Who frankly cares.
If you don't care, then don't bother with any other data.  It's the data prior to 1863 that establishes whether there is a trend or cycle occurring.  If you don't care, then why bother asking the question?
What if this rising quantities of magnitude 7+ quake trend continues to grow?
What if it does?  By asking it in this fashion, you seem to be implying something, but you don't state what it is.
Mundus vult decipi
I should have been more clear. It's not that i don't care about the data prior to the table - it's that we don't have data prior to 1900. If we had data, we could obviously draw more pertinent conclusions. Challenging the data is fantastic and should always be done. I was just curious as to what you all thought about this if, indeed, this data was true. What would be the agenda of this false chart of information? Fear-mongering?

What if this rising quantities of magnitude 7+ quake trend continues to grow?

What if it does? By asking it in this fashion, you seem to be implying something, but you don't state what it is.

I ask this, because if the data is true, without knowing the quake history prior to 1900, then we are not looking in the right places to explain this rise in frequency of 7+ quakes.

KBK1008:

Interesting numbers.  I wonder where they got them.

From the Centennial catalog (1900 through 2007), I obtain the following graph of the number of quakes of magnitude seven (7) and greater:

I most certainly see no upward trend!  (While there is a slight downward trend, I would say it is not statistically significant.)

So, where did they get their numbers, again?

David
is there a way to do it without using NASA's equipment ?

Absolutely, right here.
Never is a long time.
And ... the Mayan calender.. Many people believe that the Mayan calender really ends on October 17 2011.. Is that another coincidence? Maybe this isn't a doomsday scenario... but is it possible that the passing of this thing is what caused them to restart the calender? Just like when the earth orbits the sun, we have a new year... IF (AND I SAID IF) this comet was significant to the Mayans - who did not have telescopes - could one assume that in order for them
to mark the day of its passing as the end of their calender - that it had to be significant enough for them to say.. "mark this day"...

If I were on a supertanker, and I saw a flea land on the deck and dent the steel, I would probably write that down so that generations in the future would know abotu that day...

Sorry for the long rant - but this issue is on the minds of many people, and I think they have very legitimate concerns...

And ... the Mayan calender.. Many people believe that the Mayan calender really ends on October 17 2011.. Is that another coincidence?
No, they set out to intentionally deceive people.
What about all the other questions ... That is my problem with the "official" take... I wrote that long comment because I am assuming you are a lot more knowledgeable about things of this nature.... Believe me, this comet Elenin thing is something that I hope to GOD gets proven as RIDICULOUS... But, IMO the fear seems justifiable.. And scientists have done very very little to quell that fear.. "trust us, its nothing.. we measured it on our equipment that you have no access to.. and then submitted that data to the rest of the scientific community... and we would NEVER tell a lie.. so yes, it has very little mass"

Please, you're overlooking the obvious here.  Scientists don't live on another planet.  If this one is destroyed, they will be destroyed along with it.  You can't truly believe that scientists would lie about a potential catastrophe when they would be as much victimized by it as anyone else.

I can appreciate political skepticism, but at some point you have to let it go and recognize that you will never have access to all the data, nor would it do you any good if you did.  The world is NOT out to get you.
Mundus vult decipi
You are clearly a paid shill for Big Comet.
Well, I'm still upset at the screw-up that resulted in Shoemaker-Levy hitting Jupiter.  If it would've gone as planned, we'd have made a fortune and completely upstaged the Mayans by well over a decade.

Oh well, not every conspiracy ends well.  I suppose that's why there's so many of them.
Mundus vult decipi
"going down with the ship" is not everybody's philosophy. These days... if people were on the Titanic and knew it was about to sink - there would be a lot of people that would want to secure a life boat for themselves... not everyone will be effected the same - if this were to happen... but not everyone can have a lifeboat.. If everyone knew, then EVERYONE would want one.. and there would be chaos.. So, there would be absolutely no upside in sharing this information - if it were true... I am still just disturbed and wonder why no one can logically answer my questions..

There's nothing to logically answer.  You've thrown together such a total mish-mash of misinformation that it isn't even possible to sort on what your question is.

Also, your point about a life-boat is completely ridiculous.  There is no lifeboat for planet Earth.  To suggest that there are some protected places on the planet, is equally ridiculous.   The Titanic wasn't going to another planet.

I'm sorry, but you don't sound skeptical as much as you sound hysterical.  Your worries just don't seem coherent nor particularly relevant.

Mundus vult decipi
Some of you guys are very unimaginable and closed minded to be so smart.. If the "world" one day ends, it would not be the end of the earth.. and it wouldn't be the end life on earth - it would be the end of life as we know it.. The reference to "life-boats", is a reference to resources.. In theory, if there were ever a world-wide catastrophe, when the dust settles there would be chaos - people going wild trying to control the few resources we have left...

And others here are just plain wacky!
Never is a long time.
These events are not new or special. The only difference is it's our turn. Our "so called" intelligent race may be the only species to have some sort of control of our fate [see "global concsious network"].Their is some documented proof on such an event, if this interests you, then I invite you all to see this little piece of lost history, just a couple hundred years in our recent past, please google "Kalopins Legacy". Go to www.wix.com/koolkreations/kalopins-legacy, tap "documents and links", tap "a few comments on 1811", and read this article. As with those in power, history is a fickle little \$#(+! This time, though, there is proof, in the physical evidence left from an impact, that very few know of, and even less that want to recognize. I believe, mostly out of fear, ignorance, or the dollar. If you have a moment, read the book [Kalopins Legacy], and find ways to use regeneration and kinetic energy. Tesla wanted it to be free for us all, yet we still live in the world of Edison, G.E., and Westinghouse! This is simple science to get off the grid, off the oil and coal addiction, and away from the misuse of uranium and nuclear power.

Oh, and when we're all dying from radiation poisoning because of the next MAJOR earthquake, let's all come back to this thread and have happy chat :)

Why stop at radiation poisoning?  Let's also invent some new virus, and mutant strain of genes that takes over our brains and turn us all into zombies.  Give it a rest.

You're not even in the same ballpark with all the worries you want to throw into the same pile.

Just for the record ... what does radiation poisoning have to do with earthquakes?
Mundus vult decipi
Dude really? Fukushima ring a bell? How about North Anna Nuke plant in VA. Dude its 2011 STFU and start opening your d*mn eyes.

Oh, so your assuming that all earthquakes are going to occur near nuclear plants.
. Dude its 2011 STFU and start opening your d*mn eyes.
So, your point is that because it's 2011, then you can start being irrational and just leveling all manner of hysterical nonsense?  I'm fascinated by the notion that somehow invoking a specific year should be indicative of some scientific phenomenon.  Is this because of the Mayans?

Perhaps we should start with some sacrifices to the gods.  It didn't appear to work for the Aztecs, but then again ... it's 2011, maybe there's a better chance now.
Mundus vult decipi
I LOVE how you ignore the fact that you're dying of radiation contamination, JUST as I AM, and well, basically everyone on the northern hemisphere, YOUR COMPLETE NEGLECT OF FUKUSHIMA STRIKES ME AMAZING. Im glad you dont care, matter of fact bro, can you tell me how to ignore all the SH!T goin on in the world right now? I mean really, what is your secret?

OH and by the way, what I mean by "its 2011" is that the way you "news reporters" are responding to us, gives me the impression that you have almost a 1950's bias on the world really. Denying this, Denying that.
What I'm trying to make you see is that, THINGS ARE CHANGING, if you can't see the signs, then really how much attention are you paying to the world? I'm not attributing any of these things to comet elenin, whatsoever, but SOMETHING is changing.
Human, being of creation, has the ability to SENSE, and you sir, have no sense.

THINGS ARE CHANGING
Once again.  Are you joking?  If anything, this planet is the "poster child" for change.  What ever made you think that things WEREN'T changing on planet Earth?

Your problem is that you simply want to invoke fear and have no understanding.  This is the hallmark of those that are governed by superstition and hysteria.  The irony is, that you don't even know what there is to be afraid of.  Yours is so generalized that almost anything will do, provided that it plays into your doomsday scenario.  Humanity will certainly end, and it may even be catastrophically.  However, when that happens, you can bet that it isn't going to happen despite warnings by some hysterical individual over the internet that can't distinguish between radiation dangers and earthquakes.

Mundus vult decipi
You've got to be joking.  I don't concern myself with things that have no basis in fact.  If you want to get yourself all worked up feel free to do so, but your hysteria doesn't accomplish anything for anyone and it simply generates unwarranted fear in people that don't know any better.
Mundus vult decipi
I would ask you watch the whole thing then say what you will of them and me if you like.
http://youtu.be/9GMILqaYX3Y

I LOVE how you ignore the fact that you're dying of radiation contamination...
This statement demonstrates how completely clueless you are regarding radiation.
Mundus vult decipi
jokes on you bro, fukushima is way worse than you think. i dont know about you, but im not cool with ingesting plutonium and uranium.

Wow, you really don't understand any of this stuff.
Mundus vult decipi
jokes on you bro, fukushima is way worse than you think. i dont know about you, but im not cool with ingesting plutonium and uranium, and no, i dont want to spread fear, i want to spread truth. im living in the same world as you my friend, i wish i lived in a world with out nuclear power :( . i do understand, that is MY problem..

Truth?  Aren't you a bit presumptuous in assuming that only you possess it?  I can't think of anything more disturbing that someone that obviously doesn't understand the physics, thinking that they possess the "true" meaning of what's happening in the world.  You have more than one problem.
Mundus vult decipi
.....meaning whats being hidden from me......a..\$..\$.....h.o.l.e

I not only enjoyed your article but also the answer to one of the questions from your link.
Can this comet influence us from where it is, or where it will be in the future? Can this celestial object cause shifting of the tides or even tectonic plates here on Earth? There have been incorrect speculations on the Internet that alignments of comet Elenin with other celestial bodies could cause consequences for Earth and external forces could cause comet Elenin to come closer. "Any approximate alignments of comet Elenin with other celestial bodies are meaningless, and the comet will not encounter any dark bodies that could perturb its orbit, nor will it influence us in any way here on Earth," said Don Yeomans, a scientist at NASA JPL. "Comet Elenin will not only be far away, it is also on the small side for comets," said Yeomans. "And comets are not the most densely-packed objects out there. They usually have the density of something akin to loosely packed icy dirt. "So you've got a modest-sized icy dirtball that is getting no closer than 35 million kilometers [about 22 million miles)," said Yeomans. "It will have an immeasurably minuscule influence on our planet. By comparison, my subcompact automobile exerts a greater influence on the ocean's tides than comet Elenin ever will."
It's unfortunate when we become attached to either side of these types of arguments. We see an opposing view and feel it is attacking who we are. Making the other side wrong feeds our ego and need for validation.

It's safe to say that regardless of the ultimate impact of Elenin, we have no control over it. We have full control over is our view of the world. If we go through life trying to prove or disprove everything, we do ourselves a huge disservice. Embrace the diversity of our unique perspectives and understand that life isn't always black and white!

Be well!

I agree fully with you, we are all indeed only human.

Just one little last thing to throw in here. What in the world, and I really mean this please this has been killing me inside for so long now, WHAT IN THE WORLD is going on with the nasa buzzroom? Ever since that "updated" trajectory of like .004 AU and then the WHOLE SITE GOES DOWN since march for an update? come on i can write javascript in my sleep....

Oh boy, we're gonna git it now!!! Not only is it still out there, but it's INVISIBLE! (to be said in the manner of Jethro Bodine, Double Naught Spy).

No need to be a prophet of doom, when the writing on the wall is so obvious. Every explosion has an implosion. Throughout the universe, in proof you'll see, destruction ceates dark matter in a vacuum of abyss. I'm sure we must enjoy this time, yet do our best to give more to those that follow. How to convince the 1% to stop playing with Pandoras' box? Japan, alone, has more than 70 nuclear plants, on a valcanic and very seismic island. Who feels responsible? If just Mt.Fuji were to erupt, that would pretty much be it. Shouldn't we all be calling the N.R.C.? Guess it depends on your status! Caught up in their own intelligence, those who've created forgot to factor in the money, power, and greed. Shall we say better luck next time?

What the hell are you talking about?
Mundus vult decipi
Did ya'll feel that? swooosh, right over the top! That IS exactly what I'm talking about. While most of us go about the day with our normal mundane tasks, a small percentage live in awe and wonderment. How does one weighed down inventor convince that giddy fool on the hill to construct, not what everyone wants, but what the future of mankind needs? I'm sure the next generation wants this as much as we have had, ya' think?

^^ that dude does not get it bro. there's a lot more to worry about than JUST comet elenin. OPEN YOUR EYES!!!!!

Yeah, that's the ticket.  After all these centuries, we can just give in to wide-eyed speculation and superstition.  No point in actually practicing science or looking for evidence.  All we need to do is "open our eyes" and the truth will be shown to us.

What a load of crap!
Mundus vult decipi
mmmm, Lots to say. You do realize where we were just 50 or 100 years ago? In 1967 A.M.C. had an electric car that had regenerational braking! Special interests, lobbyists, and corruption in the company killed it. I wonder how much CO2 we would be breathing if it would have succeeded! You must first learn in order to teach. There are many more N.E.O.s and many more astronomical alignments, and aa gallactic alignment at the very time it was predicted by the Hopi, the Myans, Nostradamus, the I Ching, mother Shifton, Edgar Cayce, and several more oracles. I can name about ten more! Now it has become scientific fact that the Earth will align with "The Dark Rift' or center of our galaxy, and what many astrophysicists believe is a black hole. Their are several forces besides gravity and electromagnatism that will come into play. Not trying to be some kind of fearmonger but these are all facts. There are things that can be done. The next page is yet to be written. We do have the technology to change much of the outcome. It will take great will and a whole lot of work.

This is priceless.  Do go on.
Mundus vult decipi
FINALLY! someone with intelligence!

BRILLIANT!

Not sure of the relationship with alternative energy cover-ups and this comet Elenin... but Stan Meyer had a water-powered car that had a 100 mile/gallon consumption (not that it matters, since it ran on water!) http://waterpoweredcar.com/stanmeyer.html.

What's intriguing about 2012 is that, different sources, different stories, different peoples have pointed at the same generally specific (oxymoron, yes I know) timeline. People can guess and believe whichever stories they choose. And on the other side, people can disprove whatever theories they can, with as much information and knowledge as possible (that we have collected since humans learned to write). The fact of the matter is we won't KNOW until it comes to PASS.

A cow sleeps on train tracks and 5 miles away, a train will pass through. You can use all data collected to theorize that the train will obliterate the cow. 4 miles and counting.... all data remains consistent - the train is coming.... 3 miles and counting - the cow is going to die.... 2 miles and counting - get your eye protection, this is going to be interesting!.... 1 mile until impact - the train derails for whatever unforeseen reason. Long-winded example, but I think I'm clear? We can't KNOW, until it comes to pass - and only then will we be sure of what happened.

Now where was I going with this? Hungry after talking about cattle- curses ADD!

Oh right, everyone's pointing at the magic year 2012, specifically the second half of 2012. We can discuss all we like about what's up around the corner, and the best thing about it is, we don't have to wait long!!

but Stan Meyer had a water-powered car that had a 100 mile/gallon consumption (not that it matters, since it ran on water!) http://waterpoweredcar.com/stanmeyer.html.

And every single one of these miracle cars fail to deliver what they promise, because they don't work.

How do I know? Because if they did GM would be selling them like hotcakes, and wouldn't have almost collapsed.
Never is a long time.
but Stan Meyer had a water-powered car that had a 100 mile/gallon consumption (not that it matters, since it ran on water!) http://waterpoweredcar.com/stanmeyer.html.

And every single one of these miracle cars fail to deliver what they promise, because they don't work.

How do I know? Because if they did GM would be selling them like hotcakes, and wouldn't have almost collapsed.
Never is a long time.
mmmm, Lots to say. You do realize where we were just 50 or 100 years ago? In 1967 A.M.C. had an electric car that had regenerational braking! Special interests, lobbyists, and corruption in the company killed it. I wonder how much CO2 we would be breathing if it would have succeeded! You must first learn in order to teach. There are many more N.E.O.s and many more astronomical alignments, and aa gallactic alignment at the very time it was predicted by the Hopi, the Myans, Nostradamus, the I Ching, mother Shifton, Edgar Cayce, and several more oracles. I can name about ten more! Now it has become scientific fact that the Earth will align with "The Dark Rift' or center of our galaxy, and what many astrophysicists believe is a black hole. Their are several forces besides gravity and electromagnatism that will come into play. Not trying to be some kind of fearmonger but these are all facts. There are things that can be done. The next page is yet to be written. We do have the technology to change much of the outcome. It will take great will and a whole lot of work.

In 1967 A.M.C. had an electric car that had regenerational braking! Special interests, lobbyists, and corruption in the company killed it.

No, what killed it was the 20 hp motor
Never is a long time.
a lt of these problems of disconnect between scientists and the general public lie with the scientists. there's a tendency to make statements of fact, when there are none, and to uphold a statistical probability in the face of causal links.
This statement is going to get me into trouble... people DO have a sense of "rightness'. perhaps its because we each own a massively parallel pattern recognition system, which maybe even uses quantum processing. so when a scientists says "there is no link..." based on a limited analysis of limited observations based on faulty assumptions. (eg. "there is no link between moon aphelion and the weather", based on statistical analysis of data that failed to account for the relative moon/sun positions) it sings a wrong note. and if people start defending bum notes in what should be a harmonious tune, then it causes a disconnect. and so people stop listening. We need more humility in science, and less religion.
for example. NASA claims it can predict the orbit of elenin. it publicly discounts interactions between elenin and other planetary bodies as potentially capable of changing that trajectory. that's NONSENSE. has NASA modelled the dynamic distortions in the curvature of spacetime in the solar system? (the CAUSE of orbits) NO. (how i would love them too... imagine the power of a model where we can relate planetary surface spacetime curvature to tectonic stress) it bases its calculations on very limited math, when the three body problem is still an approximation. so of course, it sings bum notes. at the very same time, it public announces that it can't predict when its own satellite will fall to earth stating that "solar winds" have a large and unpredictable effect. Is that effect only on satellites, or is it solar system wide? if it is solar system wide, then fallibility needs to be acknowledged with elenin and other comets too.
this is not a fight between the enlightened scientist and the dumb believer. this is a search for the truth.

Oh, yeah.  It was that sense of "rightness" that gave rise to all the superstitious beliefs that resulted in human sacrifice and the witch hunts, and heresy trials.  Yeah ... can't beat that sense of "human rightness".

Let's blame science for its requirements in objectivity for denying us access to accurate and truthful information.  Give me more of the smoke and bone rattling to show me what's "right".
this is not a fight between the enlightened scientist and the dumb believer. this is a search for the truth.
No it's a quest for the typical lazy man's reductionist attitude of superstitious beliefs that play into preconceived prejudices and biases.  Why spent all that time and effort to actually learn science when it's so much easier to just make shit up and then blame scientists for not listening to you.
Mundus vult decipi
wow. you've completely missed the point.

i'm a trained scientist. i bothered to spend the time learning my "shit". only to a low level - MA hons Cantab and a MSc from the IOP in neuroscience. i dropped out of my pHd when i saw professors discarding data that didn't support their funding streams and so went to play with computers instead.

i think you need to recognise that that "typical lazy man's reductionist attitude of superstitious beliefs that play into preconceived prejudices and biases." is equally active in YOU, and in all 'scientists'. just having a qualification, a lab and a coat doesn't make you infalible. You must have come across the stats 101 example of how to do it wrong (the number of windows in a building causing crime)?

what i was trying to highlight is how the bullshit superiority attitude you so neatly exhibited is a big player in the growth of the anti-science superstition movement. but i dont think you actually tried to understand, as i appear to have been boxed and disregarded already.

science IS a quest for the truth. It is a conversation with nature and we need to ask her the right questions.

and yes. lots of people haven't bothered to train their neural networks, so they get bad results. so its up to those who can to give them good data, not embattled, statistically flawed, incorrect info. grow up.

Oh, it isn't a superiority attitude.  It's simply an attitude that has no patience with anyone that can't articulate a coherent argument or present evidence, or even propose a hypothesis.  I am so done with people that just want to ramble on and on about their pet "theories" and speculations as if the mere fact that it is one of their utterances that should automatically lend it credibility.

If you were a scientist by training, then you didn't learn very much about formulating a position nor advancing an argument.  Instead you simply decided that scientists don't know anything, because they don't ask "the right questions".

You're no different than every other conspiracy nutcase to climb aboard.  It's just that you hide behind statistics as the vehicle against which you wish to level your accusations.  There are plenty of scientific challenges to be leveled, and there's certainly a great deal of information that can be contradicted and requires vastly more evidence than is currently available.  However, your silly assessments contribute nothing to that knowledge and serve merely as a means by which you can cast more doubt than light on a subject.
Mundus vult decipi
what are you talking about?

all i've done is asked for the scientific method to be rigorous and free of superstition. i've asked for good stats and honest positions. i do not see scientists as an homogenous group and have made no statements about what they may or may not know. i have made no 'accusations' and instead pointed out one or two reasons why a rational person might take what may be said and discount it.

if scientists were careful in their choices of wording. ("it's pretty fucking unlikely", say, instead of "its impossible", or "its really unlikely" instead of "it won't") then people may be inclined to listen more.

of course, it would be nice if big agencies like NASA were a bit more consistent too. fancy saying a 1/3200 chance of being hit by satellite debris is slim!

if i were reactionary, i might take great offense at your unfounded assessments of my assumed position. instead i see someone who is embattled and on the warpath and so unable to engage in considered, polite and rational discourse.

i spend a lot of time and energy talking to the 'conspiracy nutcases' trying to undo the damage done by people such as yourself. fostering understanding is more useful then defending the indefensible. did you know that in the (vast) 'festival' scene, "scientist" is an insult? it means someone who is blinded by limited belief in the nature of the universe. someone who hides behind bad experiments to justify drug pushing. how did that reversal occur? from alchemist to blind? do you not think that your attitude may be part of the problem.

my "silly assessments" are far from silly. casting doubt on faulty theories IS part of the scientific method. lets get rigorous, both in our method and our presentation of results. or keep labelling people you know nothing about and venting spleen on public forums.

There are certainly scientists that speak beyond the level of knowledge that exists, but that situation isn't helped by those that want to question every piece of data so that it leaves it wide open for speculative nonsense.

You started by talking about people's sense of "rightness".  That's about as unscientific as it can get, and yet you felt that this was an appropriate metric to use when gauging information.  Perhaps you'd prefer if NASA were to announce that they have no confidence in their numbers and that they know nothing about what is likely to happen, so better just hunker down and hope that we don't get hit by this comet.  Is that more to your liking?

Anyone that understands the slightest bit of science is well aware of the uncertainties that accompany any claim and that there will always be some margin of interpretation that could be wrong.  In addition, it is well understood that the "laws" of the universe are not well-known and may require modification.  However, that is no excuse to simply run off on some statistical bender and presume that all the data is suspect and that people should be concerned.

The reason why there is a disconnect between scientists and the public is because the public prefers to believe nonsense and doomsday scenarios instead of engaging in even the simplest Google search to find information.  They are spoon fed nonsense regarding their politics, their economics, their social theories, and their science.  It's little wonder that they believe any claptrap that someone has a television show to announce.

This has nothing to do with the reliability of statistics of science theories.  It has everything to do with a public that is too gullible to educate themselves and those that play into those fears.   So here's a reality check for you.  The universe is a violent and dangerous place to live.  If people don't get that, then they aren't living in the "real world".

You want to know what people are concerned about?  Look for the number of magazines that are discussing the comet Elenin versus those discussing Kim Kardashian.  Then you'll see how much people give a damn about statistics and science.

Mundus vult decipi
you've not had a lot of experience with neural networks, i guess. patterns emerging from chaos. solutions of non-computational problems. 'fuzzy' logic.

what i was saying is that it does not take a bunch of stats and degrees to spot when something does not fit - that's what our brains have evolved to do, to spot the predator hiding, to look for patterns. there's certainly enough literature in the psychological sciences about it.

and when a scientist tells a lie ("there is no connection") when they are afraid of telling the truth ("its unlikely", or even better "we don't know") then it is going to be spotted by a lot of people, even if they don't understand why.

and that makes fools of us all, discrediting the rest of the scientists who are rigorous and non-partisan enough to be honest. such as the author of this article, who gave a well balanced discussion.

what i was saying is that it does not take a bunch of stats and degrees to spot when something does not fit - that's what our brains have evolved to do, to spot the predator hiding, to look for patterns. there's certainly enough literature in the psychological sciences about it.
Oh, so we're going to drag out this old gem as an explanation?  Well, that should solve some major scientific issues.  No point doing studies or reviewing data.  We'll just publish it and let the public's sense of "rightness" determine what it means.
and when a scientist tells a lie ("there is no connection") when they are afraid of telling the truth ("its unlikely", or even better "we don't know") then it is going to be spotted by a lot of people, even if they don't understand why.
... and thus we descend into conspiracy land.  This is the land where there is no such thing as a mistake, or someone simply being wrong.  In this environment scientists lie or fear the truth.

Also, please spare me the naivete of failing to realize that there is a difference between science/scientists and the PR of organizations that have economic or political objectives.

Mundus vult decipi
fine. you win. i must be a naive, uniformed, unintelligent superstitious fool who believes all the conspiracy theories and fails to understand real science. forget the fact i have published, forget the degrees.

i must be completely stupid to suggest that scientists obey the rigor of accurate reporting and even more feckless to dare to suggest that the general population has any kind of common sense.

so, go on with your life of superiority and frank trolling. i'm sure you have a justification for everything. oh wait. is that the conspiracy theorists? sorry, i can't tell you apart.

This is great news!

For one to solve problems, one must know they have a problem to solve :)
Never is a long time.
Oh please, don't play the victim card now.  You want to shift the focus to that of responsibility and rigor, when that has never been the issue.

You started off by suggesting that people have a sense of "rightness" and from this you extrapolated that they distrust science because scientists "lie" or are "afraid to tell the truth".

In no instance did you ever advance a coherent argument about what information was supposedly inaccurate or incomplete.   Instead you simply decided that this was a topic from which you could launch a generalized attack on science and why it seems to alienate the public.  I also fail to see how your perpetual appeal to "common sense" is meaningful.  You manage to take the effort necessary to appreciate and understand complex subjects and reduce it to the trivial perspective that the general public can ascertain the "truth" or legitimacy of a scientific idea or explanation simply on their own sense of "rightness".
Mundus vult decipi
I guess you're mad.

Why don’t you try to debunk her main point instead of building a straw man to knock down? Honest question.

Which main point?

That there's been more than one alignment? Did that.
That it's not some mysterious heavy material? Did that.
That you can't see and measure the orbit yourself if you want? Did that.
That there's isn't an increase in earthquakes? Did that.
Never is a long time.

You've already established that this isn't going to be scientific.
Mundus vult decipi
Well, start talking cowboy. I'm not going to ask you why it couldn't but ask you to find facts against my facts. so..... shot pete

You don't have any facts.  You have no link or information regarding any alignment beyond the speculative crap from conspiracy sites.

You wave your arms around about some "heavy material" without any chemical/physical basis for believing it (nor do you have any information regarding what this material supposedly is).

You then infer that this heavy material must be capable of interacting with the Earth gravitationally to produce earthquakes, despite not having any basis for claiming that such an interaction actually WOULD produce earthquakes.

You then go on about your "theory" about an interaction with the solar flare after which point it gets all strange between being an unstable heavy material, and yet being magnetic, and then having a high density, and yet having little or no gravitational influence on it's path, although it will have a significant influence to produce earthquakes, despite the fact that such a correlation has never been established.

Oh yeah, and to round it out, you're going to accuse me of being close-minded and how science doesn't know everything, and we can't make such claims unless we've been there and taken samples, and how can we know that there aren't such heavy materials, and how you've read an article that indicates that such heavy metals are produced in supernovas, ... Hmmm ... did I miss anything?

You have no theory, you have no hypothesis, you have NOTHING!  You've got a bunch of stuff that you've cobbled together from different websites and think that it amounts to anything more than a pile of shit.
Mundus vult decipi
Whoa, slow your roll there partner. I posted links(and in other post) and if you find it hard to find anything informative in them. Then your shit out of luck and it was you who call yourself close-minded but it’s good that you know thy self. I do use free association and the Hermetic principles to find fact on thing that would otherwise be impossible to prove in a lab. I also know that carbon can only be produced at the core of stars. That was just an quick answer to you belittling question but did you know that the time it take for that to happen. That it is impossible that there would be enough carbon in the know space for life to exist given with comparison with how old we think the universe is. I choose to think differently and if you don’t have anything new to add. Well sir, then you can go fornicate yourself because there will be stroking of egos here.

Glad to see you've unveiled yourself.  So much for the "scientific" part, eh?
Mundus vult decipi
I apologize for the miss post but I have nothing to hide. We are all but ordinary men(and woman)

Whoa, slow your roll there partner. I posted links(and in other post) and if you find it hard to find anything informative in them. Then your shit out of luck and it was you who call yourself close-minded but it’s good to you know thy self. I do use free association and the Hermetic principles to find facts on thing that would otherwise be impossible to prove in a lab. I also know that carbon can only be produced at the core of stars. That was just an quick answer to you belittling question but did you know that the time it take for that to happen. It is impossible that there would be enough carbon in the know universe for life to exist with compared with how old we think the universe is. I choose to think differently and if you don’t have anything new to add. Well sir, then you can go fornicate yourself because there will be stroking of egos here.

As I've said 3 or 4 times now, there is nothing unusual about the density(mass), other wise it would be evident in the orbit.

I'll skip your theory, thanks...
Never is a long time.
not even touch how meny earthquakes there been in the recent days? Eh, whatever

Rate of large earthquakes
Never is a long time.
Thank you for response but the date stop 2007. I brought to the table the ones in the past month. It doesn’t really matter now. There isn’t enough date to satisfy ether side. Please to anyone, don’t chime in and say that there is. That will only start another pointless argument. It’s only three days till and I’m fine wait to see what plays out. Thank you for your time and my your God bless

your*

You can find more data here.
Never is a long time.
thank you for the link. it does show no appertain correlation with the comet and earthquakes only that the seem to happen to hit closer in time to one another but that's not enough. I'll just wait to see what happens. thanks though

a lt of these problems of disconnect between scientists and the general public lie with the scientists. there's a tendency to make statements of fact, when there are none, and to uphold a statistical probability in the face of causal links.
This statement is going to get me into trouble... people DO have a sense of "rightness'. perhaps its because we each own a massively parallel pattern recognition system, which maybe even uses quantum processing. so when a scientists says "there is no link..." based on a limited analysis of limited observations based on faulty assumptions. (eg. "there is no link between moon aphelion and the weather", based on statistical analysis of data that failed to account for the relative moon/sun positions) it sings a wrong note. and if people start defending bum notes in what should be a harmonious tune, then it causes a disconnect. and so people stop listening. We need more humility in science, and less religion.
for example. NASA claims it can predict the orbit of elenin. it publicly discounts interactions between elenin and other planetary bodies as potentially capable of changing that trajectory. that's NONSENSE. has NASA modelled the dynamic distortions in the curvature of spacetime in the solar system? (the CAUSE of orbits) NO. (how i would love them too... imagine the power of a model where we can relate planetary surface spacetime curvature to tectonic stress) it bases its calculations on very limited math, when the three body problem is still an approximation. so of course, it sings bum notes. at the very same time, it public announces that it can't predict when its own satellite will fall to earth stating that "solar winds" have a large and unpredictable effect. Is that effect only on satellites, or is it solar system wide? if it is solar system wide, then fallibility needs to be acknowledged with elenin and other comets too.
this is not a fight between the enlightened scientist and the dumb believer. this is a search for the truth.

I completely agree

So much of what people want to call science is still just theory and conjecture. Does time exist if there is no intelligent life to measure it? Time will never stop or go any faster or slower, it is only our perception. Just as the speed of light is relative to the energy it was produced by. nothing remains a constant, all that is tangible is variable. It is "cause and effect". All anyone can do is to make the best prediction with the knowledge available. Most of us know and understand what has happened before. Not to forget the age of the dinasours was several million, and the age of humans,just a few thousand. We are still climbing out of the caves, and are just beginning to understand how it all works.

What's with the NASA warnings and taking down those from the space station then? Pls splain

If NASA thought it was going to hit earth, don't you think they'd leave the astronauts in the Space Station?
Never is a long time.
Through God ALL things are possible! We cannot even imagine the power the creator has. As far as the comet I would call it the Blue Star Kachina of the Hopi Native American prophecy.

I've read a bit about the Hopi prophecy. What do you make of "the sudden unmasking" it speaks of?

There is the Wisdom of Crowds, most famously the market-oriented capitalist system where a zillion people direct where capital is best employed. Then there is the Stupidity of Crowds, most famously Direct Democracy in America. And then there is the Hysteria of Idiots, most famously conspiratorial doom scenarios is in all their many flavors.

How does anything in this article confirm whats in the title? The information within it is weeks old and new photographs have been taken to show that is still there and just has it was. The title suggest otherwise and provides a 3 sec clip from one source that offers only 'may not' has a conclusion. This article is speculation with a misleading title or more simply trash. The comment thread offers more.

You are wrong it is going to happen in six days time first the sun will be blocked then we will have the solar storm but it will not be the end this is only the blue one PLANET X will come by 2012 trust me i know. And for those non-believers you will be the first to die in the rain of fire...

Great I love a BBQ!
Never is a long time.
solar storm is on the way, to hit on the 22/23rd. 4 HUGE CME's heading right at earth. praying for no EMP blackout and nuclear meltdowns.

On the way?

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Never is a long time.
Mount Tambora is starting to act up again too, "deadliest volcano ever" in 1816. If this were to erupt in this day of age, we will be in a lot of trouble. So much going on in the world, and yet these reporters want to just sit here and attack us like we're uneducated retards. And I try telling these dudes to "open their eyes to the signs" and then they just go off on a tangent about how dumb I am. So sick of people like them who cannot accept reality. GET WITH THE PROGRAM. This week will bring turmoil. How about the UARS Satellite coming down on you? Hows that make you feel? Or maybe the next big earthquake will shake your house apart, and the nuclear facility next to it.

You are an Idiot..
Stick to subjects you know, like Retards...duh

Leave the Science to Us Dum Dum.....

LOL deeee da deeee *drooling on self* bahahh i went poopy in my pantsss

It looks like it is time to close the comments. This seems to have been a couple of Matthew 7:6 days
As for me, I think instead I'll worry about a storm knocking down my neighbor's tree--that seems riskier than a Mayan Y2K problem.

If we closed the comments, conspiracy theorists would say Big Comet made us do it.  Science is immune to most quackery and Science 2.0 exists to communicate science honestly and without filtering, that includes calling people quacks on one side along with slaughtering sacred cows on the other.
This tread makes my head and heart hurt. There are so many people, including me, that are not scientist, and don't know what to think. Common Sense says one thing, but the doom and gloom people also make some sense. Not sure who or what to believe.

The solution is easy; go ahead and believe them if you want, just don't stop paying your rent.
During the last 'end of the world' conspiracy tale 4 months ago, the world was supposed to end at 6PM so I tried to get sweet lovin' at 5:30 but made dinner reservations for me and the wife at 6:30.  Like wives, banks are not going to allow excuses like 'but someone on the Internet said the world would end'.
I don't believe them at all. However, this time, the conspiracy people have connected most of the dots. If nothing else, this as made me more interested in science.

I don't believe them at all. If nothing else, this as made me more interested in science.

There I fixed it for you ;)
Never is a long time.
Why do you guys consider us conspiracy theorists? What we're simply trying to do is explain what we're seeing with our eyes, feeling with our bodies, and hearing with our ears. There is so much going on right now where yes, science is useful, but doesnt necesarily explain everything going on! We're simply trying to prove our point, that comet elenin is something that we've never witnessed before. It's not just a comet, its a sign.

And please Hank, touch on the nasabuzzroom for me? Just give me a thought of why you think it is still down, I'm not trying to provoke arguement here at all, I just really want to know why it is still down..

I mean just another "coincidence"?? Just like the "alignments" and earth quakes? And the awakening of the sun hurling CME's directed towards Earth? Or just like the UARS coming down from space on short noticed, uncontrolled? Or the censorship of SOHO and STEREO images? Or the censorship of radiation monitoring in food, air, and water? Or the USGS censorship of seismic acivities? I mean how many coincidences does it take to make you go wait a minute, this is getting sketchy? Thats where I stand. I simply don't know. Months of research have brought me here. I just.....simply....dont....know...any....more.....

no? no one wants to touch on the nasa buzzroom issue?? pleaseeeeeeeee ????

Months of research have brought me here.
If months of research brought you here, then you need to STOP immediately!  Go find a therapist and have them increase your meds, because whatever you're taking isn't working any more.
Mundus vult decipi
haha wow. im not on meds, and i dont have to go see a therapist. here is why i am worried/attracted to comet elenin:

1.) natural disasters is the "Theme" if you will of 2011, yes i understand they happen every year blah blah whatever you want to say here just forget saying it b/c we already know what your gonna say.

2.) comet elenin has been a subject on the net now for a while b/c of the "earthquake" connection, or i mean coincidence.and if it i not a sign, then i just dont know what to make of our ancestors and ancient civilizations, it must be a sign. insert whatever witty diss towards me you want here and tell me im an elenin kook blah blah yeah we get it.

3.) the japan earthquake and nuclear disaster has done something to me that nothing else has in my life, made me scared, aware, open to the fact that, if i do ignore whats going on in the world, then im at a disadvantage than the person who is keeping up with whats going down in the world.
3a.) the nuclear disaster is what freaked me the most, yes im the radiation freak who doesnt get it over here, and if and thats just IFFFFF comet elenin is causing an earthquake on the 26/27th, which i DO think will happen, then i now know the fate of the future. if im wrong, sir, i will go take my meds. but i strongly feel like there is going to be a big earthquake, soon. very soon. like bad big. the recent CME's incoming, and this uars thing, and the denver coincidence, and the "alignment" is just all so weird to me.

Unfortunately since you insist on posting anonymously, we'll never know if you're around on the 26th or 27th to admit that nothing happened.
...if i do ignore whats going on in the world,...
See, that's the problem.  Fukushima happens and it is a sudden revelation to you and scares you.  So I suspect you were quite oblivious to world events prior to that time.  Suddenly something catches your attention and you go all panicky as if flitting around like a hummingbird with ADHD is going to solve any problems.

Unless you're actually better informed, then neither approach is useful and neither achieves any objective.  Being scared of the wrong things, or oblivious to the right ones are both an improper means of maintaining one's life.
Mundus vult decipi
causing an earthquake on the 26/27th

How are you going to distinguish the Elenin caused earthquake those days, verses the earthquakes that happen every day.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/
Never is a long time.
It's still down because it sucked and they don't know how to make it unsuck.  The government spends \$5 billion a year on stupid outreach stuff like that and I built this for free in my house and it has brought far more actual science to people than Buzzroom could have dreamed about.

A wide open forum hosted by NASA is always going to be overrun with 'invisible planets will run into us' quackery and it drives out the real people very quickly, so the kooks are all that is left.
It's not just a comet, its a sign.
Yep ... and just like Bill Engvall says ... "Here's your sign*".

(*) Stupid people should have to wear signs that just say, "I'm stupid". That way you wouldn't rely on them, would you? You wouldn't ask them anything. It would be like, "Excuse me... oops, never mind, didn't see your sign."
http://www.stargazersrealm.com/MAIN/funnies/heresyoursign.html
Mundus vult decipi
It is sad that anyone with an alternate theory is labeled a conspiracist. More specifically- it is scientists that often through those terms around. I guess bothers would get upset if everyone started chiming in as a beef expert. To my fellow scientists- relax. Seriously relax. With major reductions in funding for manned flight, pure research, and life in general; isn't it a better idea to play along and use it as a mechanism for securing funding? Use it to promote the fact that we can monitor less than 1% of the sky and that is why amateur astronomers can use remote technology to join the hunt. Ultimately WE ARE ON THE SAME SIDE. Why are NEO researcher’s hovering over data and spreadsheets...because they are hunting for comets and asteroids that may cause an ELE. That is what the arm-chair scientists are saying as well. Real scientists should be honored and not get angry at this. Personally- I will take a debate over Elenin and AU distance before I need to hear another "Matthew, Mark, John quoter". This is all fascinating.

Lighten up. This type of thing spurs the economy and cuases people to spend and buy more products in case.

Now- for the "arm-chairs" out there. KEEP GOING. Columbus (while as evidence clearly shows not remotely the first to discover the new world) had a gut feeling. He was using a remote access VPN tunnel into the archives of the Norse. There was now Leifwastherefirst.com as a point of reference. This passion is coming from a part of the brain that does not have access to language; the amygdala. They can’t describe it what and why they feel this way. So- conduct some qualitative research and observe and ask questions without mocking. Consider it a study similar to when other animal biologists study hordes of animals when they run from pending doom (e.g. earthquakes) before they happen.

On the Trust thing- leave it alone as nothing anyone can say on either side will convince. Stay true and ask for proof and evidence.

It is sad that anyone with an alternate theory is labeled a conspiracist.
If there were an alternate 'theory' you might have a point.  We have criticized many areas of science that look like an echo chamber to parts of the public - when they are wrong.

I wish there were some qualitative research that could come from this but it wouldn't be much value; people are going to believe in homeopathy even if there has never been any evidence in 300 years.  They are going to believe a tiny comet can cause an earthquake if it passed in front of the Sun.   Neuroscience can't help with that, it is emotional freedom but that is all it is - emotion.  A modest amount of thinking (and actually reading the article showing why this is not a risk and never was - I even put a formula in a comment so people could calculate the size of this comet themselves, it does no good) would mean this article never needed to be written at all.

There are people who still believe Hitler is holed up somewhere too, a Loch Ness monster is in Scotland, and Col. Sanders runs the world from a secret Colorado compound.  If you think any of those are silly, but that this comet might be putting the planet is at risk, you see what I am getting at.
but would the buzzroom not be the best place to debunk with SCIENCE our kookiness? the only scienece ive got from this website is how to determine mass through magnitude. yeah i understand that its only 3-4km wide with a coma of about 200,000km or more now i dont even know, but wheres the science to disprove "charged comets" and "alignments", just because you say it cant be doesnt mean it cant be?

Here's a news flash for you.  It isn't this, nor any other site's responsibility to debunk your silliness.  You insist on being heard, and yet when nothing happens you slink away with no apologies and nothing to say until the next "crisis" surfaces.

You want to be taken seriously?  Post your name and show up when your "charged comets" and "alignments" amount to a whole lot of nothing.  Then you should apologize and ask someone for some guidance to help you understand enough science to avoid being caught up in the next piece of idiocy.

However, I know that will never happen.  Instead you'll simply run off on the next nonsensical piece and rationalize your behavior because no one wants to waste their lives debunking your crap.
Mundus vult decipi
how did this turn into my crap? was this article not created to spark debate amongst the community? i want to know just as well as you do, and anyone else reading this article, what really is going on. its the fact that "natural disasters" are really starting to show themselves this year. those "signs" or "events" changes whatever you want to call them make me look for an explanation. then comet elenin comes along, and it really almost solves my equation. but what if, lets just be rational here cause you keep doing this to me, what if something does happen on the 26/27th? what should i tell you to do?

It turned into "your crap" the minute you posted anonymously and insisted on pursuing this rubbish without advancing a rational argument.  There's will be nothing for you to tell me on the 26th or 27th because there will nothing that happens that day.  However, an apology would be nice.
Mundus vult decipi
"charged comets" and "alignments"
To do what you (or someone talking to you) is claiming it will do, or could do, you now have to invent magical materials that are not known to exist.  There is no 'charge' in the comet if it is composed of any material in the universe and alignment is irrelevant, unless me typing in California is exerting gravitational pull on a fishing boat in Japan.
again though your debate is referencing two things that are not related to space and celestial bodies. you're saying your typing on your computer is influencing a boat in japan, but we know that is impossible. it would be like saying you're using your computer to control the boat, which, with the right given technology i would assume possible. now with that thinking, is it safe to not say that the unexplored and hardly understood universe, and gravity, that alignments, in fact have could have an effect. not necessarily because of mass, but electrical charge or gravitational charge or force that has yet to been fully explained? charged comets is a theory, that makes sense, and this comet i would think fit the characteristics of the "unknown". is this thinking entirely irrational?

people are stil working on devices to upscale quantum wave collapses into the macro scale. we are not there yet, but some respected scientists posit that the purpose of the structures within neurones is to do just that. (back in '94. not kept up with them since i left the neurosicences research institute) picture the fun we can have with manifest reality (collapsed wave function reality, or observed reality, call it what you will) once we can play with the wave functions...

get into the quantum world and the whole game changes. nothing is separate from anything else, there is action at a distance and yes, this typing is effecting that fishing boat, and vice versa.

what's the chance that that electron will (magically) tunnel through an impenetrable barrier and release a photon? feck all, yet they are doing it by the googleplex all over the planet every day. they provide the backlight for my screen.

our stats is a tool we use to try and make sense of event, based on newtonian ideas of measurability, although we all know its the last straw that breaks the camel's back - statistically it is a 100% chance that its the last straw, the odds on each straw are pretty conclusive that each individual straw will have no effect.

so - its pretty bloody unlikely that elenin, even if it was a tetrehedral alien spaceship made of compressed dark matter - will have any significant effect on any terrestrial events. if it were massive enough to have a significant effect on the local spacetime curvature we'd probably have noticed it mucking things up as it came in, and i've not seen any evidence of that so far. that said. maybe it will be the final straw. who knows? we'll only know after its gone and anything else is speculation.

and its fun. No one can honestly say that there is no chance of a relationship between elenin and earthquakes. that is not a scientifically rigorous statement. its a LIE. what we can say is that there is more chance that everyone reading this will win the lottery on saturday. we could do with less of these divisive lies, and a bit more humour. yes, conspiracy theorists, its very coincidental that comet angel-hammer is arriving soon before the magical 2012 date for the end of the universe, and yes it does indeed match with prophecy in the bible from 2000 years ago and follows a bunch of multimedia reporting of natural events that indeed seem to fit the trumpets and seals in revelations. and yes, it would be pretty cool if it actually did do something amazing and usher in the apocalypse, but i'm going to keep planting my leeks and planning for next year. I advise you all to do the same.

as for the idea of a capacitance effect. hmm. the sun does create a magnetosphere and the comet is moving through it quite fast, so there may be some way of making it hold an induced charge. seems pretty unlikely, though. show me how it works and i might listen, and show me how to test the theory and that would be even better.

but then i'm a scientist. i'm not going to ridicule a theory just because it doesn't fit into my world view. i might ridicule it because it doesn't fit the facts...

Flow, thank you so much...
you are definitely the only one on this forum whose reflexions follow a scientific line...
And the only one here to keep me thinking human race has still a possibility of survival...
you all made me laugh a good while... Scientist Vs Conspirationnists...all the same kind of stupid prejudiced bipeds...like me...

Really and truly, all said and done, it relly doesn't matter if our end is near or not. We still must make a change. To know that at any point anything can fall from space and hit anywhere, and to accept it? What if an astroid, or even some of our own spacejunk were to hit a refinery, chemical plant, or maybe a nuclear power plant!?, and we steadily build without adequate safety, who feels responsible? When I was younger, I was sure our generation would have more logic, yet the same greedy past on ignorance is still in command. Who should we be yelling at? How do we make such a change in what seems is going to be a very short time frame? Maybe someone knows more than us. Oh well, hide in your silos and bunkers!

ahhhaha this is entertaining indeed *graps pop corn* .. please carry on, am looking forward for the next comment more than am looking forward for the next end of earth date.

Out of curiosity Hank. What is your take pertaining to the end of all things???

My take is that people predicting the end of the world have to be right eventually.  I just eliminate impossibilities, like a comet 22 million miles away or sectarian idolatry of a base-10 number system which didn't even exist when the Bible numerologists are using as evidence was written.
I can appreciate your skepticism Hank. You will be right 99% of the time. lol. There is an awfully large amount of doomsday scenarios out there. All of them have been proven wrong. But even with those odds, they are going to stack up against you eventually. Do you believe in God Hank? I take it you don't. That will be your undoing. You see there are sets of physics that is beyond our comprehension! To try and disprove everything doesn't make you smart. It is only the easy path to a false sense of self grandeur. One day you will see. :)

Will,
Not believing in a god will never be someone's undoing. Advances in neurobiology have shown us how the need to believe in something is hardwired into the human brain. Just becuase someone doesn't believe in god, doesn't mean he will unravel himself into total loss. Many believe Sitchin that gods of ancient times were ancient aliens. Plenty of evidence to show how that might be plausible. Considering the similarites of the various creation stories from the major and minor cultures of the world, it may be very plausible. The god-as-man vehicle, the virgin birth, miracles have all been told far before the Jesus story.

I have spent the majority of my life as a full-blown athiest. In my immature days, I looked for ways to be snarky and poke holes in the belief system of others, rather than using simple facts. Do you know what moved my needle from full-throttle atheist back to the comfort of being agnostic? Simple. Mathematics. I believe in the science of evolution and astronomy and physics. We can see the linkages of how animals evolved into other species through natural selection. We can see how the rules of gravity and matter work on this planet, the moon, and under the sea. But- math couldn't evolve. Mathematics are a set of rules by which the sciences are governed. It is the framework for our entire existence and I can't explain it...so because of that- I am back in the agnostic camp.

I have learned to respect the beliefs of others and when to argue and when to let it go. It is evident early on if someone is arguing from a logical or fact base system or a belief system. If it is beliefs- one may as well argue with a wall- because it is a different part of the brain. I don't belive in "god" as many muslims or christians would explain it. I can argue that point with Cartesian logic...but as soon as someone says.."but the bible says"...I am out--because we move from the logical to the belief system...and that is a receipe for disaster. I have learned that if people believe something, arguing with facts and logic won't work... At all.

Will,
Not believing in a god will never be someone's undoing. Advances in neurobiology have shown us how the need to believe in something is hardwired into the human brain. Just becuase someone doesn't believe in god, doesn't mean he will unravel himself into total loss. Many believe Sitchin that gods of ancient times were ancient aliens. Plenty of evidence to show how that might be plausible. Considering the similarites of the various creation stories from the major and minor cultures of the world, it may be very plausible. The god-as-man vehicle, the virgin birth, miracles have all been told far before the Jesus story.

I have spent the majority of my life as a full-blown athiest. In my immature days, I looked for ways to be snarky and poke holes in the belief system of others, rather than using simple facts. Do you know what moved my needle from full-throttle atheist back to the comfort of being agnostic? Simple. Mathematics. I believe in the science of evolution and astronomy and physics. We can see the linkages of how animals evolved into other species through natural selection. We can see how the rules of gravity and matter work on this planet, the moon, and under the sea. But- math couldn't evolve. Mathematics are a set of rules by which the sciences are governed. It is the framework for our entire existence and I can't explain it...so because of that- I am back in the agnostic camp.

I have learned to respect the beliefs of others and when to argue and when to let it go. It is evident early on if someone is arguing from a logical or fact base system or a belief system. If it is beliefs- one may as well argue with a wall- because it is a different part of the brain. I don't belive in "god" as many muslims or christians would explain it. I can argue that point with Cartesian logic...but as soon as someone says.."but the bible says"...I am out--because we move from the logical to the belief system...and that is a receipe for disaster. I have learned that if people believe something, arguing with facts and logic won't work... At all.

and as ably demonstrated here, belief is strong with the 'science' side too. there's a hubris associated with lots of scientists. they believe they are the smartest thing on the planet ever, they believe that the theories they uphold are the one true description of reality and they place them before observed reality. (although 'm not placing that accusation at anyone who has posted here) they dimiss interesting data as "kooky" or "false" and spend our tax monies building temples to prove their might. and a few times a century there's a 'paradigm shift' and they all pretend they knew it anyway.

there is a near rabid belief in the constancy of the laws of physics, despite repeated publications of data showing otherwise. fine constant alpha, anyone? 17 more 'constants' shown to be variables in the last 10 years, anyone?

this leads to the counterposition to the 'the bible says' crew. its the 'modern science says' crew. and as soon as that is said, you know rational, considered discussion won't work either, as anything outside of the existant belief system will be rejected without thought. because they are so smart, they've figured it all out with their tiny little personal quantum computers which are so much more powerful than everyone else's.

a recent discussion i had with some geophysipriests led to this gem: "that paper (which was a published paper showing an expected correlation between sunspot activity and tectonic activity) is rubbish. its not been cited very much, and its in a minor journal (some journal of geophysics research) so it doesn't count. Nature or science are better journals". so, even getting data published (the old holy grail of research) can't help, and its ok to reject information because the 'gang' hasn't approved it. then i got grief for not providing a causative link. No one dares to quote the quantum sea (because we haven't built the macro scale stuff yet, its 'impossible' to have action at larger scales. lets ignore the telecoms we are already encrypting and the entanglements we already produce.) so i bring in spacetime curvature and the concept of planetary surfaces as least-energy states within wells and they all go quiet. why? because most of them don't even understand it. and even worse, they won't even think about it because the possibility of change threatens their belief systems. its a classic psychological trait found in all people, and scientists, for all their righteousness, are not immune. i wish they were, because if they were they'd be able to deal with the loons with grace, power and equanimity instead of ranting like schoolyard bullies.

learn the lessons of martial arts, my fellow truth-seekers. be sure of your footing. do not over -reach. stay balanced. you can then punch harder and deal with incoming assaults gracefully. and learn a lot of science. follow your interests and ask questions, you'll soon learn the limits of our understanding, and soon learn the assumptions that make fools of all of us. speed of light in a vacuum, anyone?

...because if they were they'd be able to deal with the loons with grace, power and equanimity instead of ranting like schoolyard bullies.
Well, you certainly have an interesting skew on the facts.  However, I think a better course of action is to simply ignore them.  Let them stew in their own fears and when they ask questions perhaps a link can be provided, but beyond that they shouldn't even be engaged.  It's just a waste of time and effort.
Mundus vult decipi
You may have a better arguement with Plato and Archamedes! The proof is in the proverbial pudding. We can't go on destroying nature. Do you realize what we've "accomplished" in the last forty or fifty years. All take and no give will leave very little for a decent future! ...and the men who hold high places...!

I think they are all right Hank,
Your just a shill for big Government. Your on your way to the Denver Airport as I write this.
Elenin is going to get you! It's gonna get all of you people! It's gonna be BAD....

You better go ahead and kill yourself now before the Apocalypse send you into a horrible agonizing slow painful searing death of fire and you are crushed by the gravitational forces of the giant Nibiru star!

Oh, and go ahead and send me your money, I financed a ticket on Virgin Space Lines, So I'll be on my way to the international space station where I can watch and report the devastation to future generations.
So send me your money now! It's important! I owe Sir Richard Charles Nicholas Branson, \$200,000.00.
The future of Civilization Depends on it!

Oh, and because I don't have Mail service on the space station, Hank will be collecting your checks.
Thanks! Farewell Civilized Man!

Anonymous, I doubt if you will be reporting to future generations if what you are predicting comes true. If you want to see what a planet might look like after hypothetically being hit by a cosmic thunderbolt watch this Youtube it has some beautiful shots of craters and canyons which this video claims may have hypothetically been caused by being electrically zapped by an electrical exchange or discharge between Mars and another charged body or bodies in the past. BTW I personally am not worried about the comet Elenin causing the same problems for planet Earth and don't believe that there is a conspiracy to cover this up.
My article about researchers identifying a potential blue green algae cause & L-Serine treatment for Lou Gehrig's ALS, MND, Parkinsons & Alzheimers is at http://www.science20.com/forums/medicine
Everything in, and including, life is a conspiracy, and within that conspiracy lies another conspiracy. Don't believe a word, even when I tell you it's all an illusion. Life is a pop quiz, a short warm moment, and death is a long cold rest. A harsh reality at "Childhoods' end". Guess we were lucky to get to this level, having eveloved from apes! May be a little of subject, but if you can get your professor to say his great great grandparents were monkeys, would it be alright to chunk your feces at him? And why always stop at gorillas? at least go back to some fish somewhere! Hydalbriganzas was over eight feet tall more than twenty thousand years ago. Explain that! Maybe we are the discendents of ancient aliens!. Quatzequatel, we await your return!

Holy Gertrude! Hugely entertaining, Hank. Could you please find some way to mark these articles with the really good comments on the main menu?

You know what really worries me? Bente is going to lay a big one on us here before long.

We allllll fear the Bente!
I will shortly show my wrath, don't worry! :-)
Bente Lilja Bye is the author of Lilja - A bouquet of stories about the Earth
I don't believe it!
There she goes again!
She's tidied up, and I can't find anything!
All my tubes and wires
And careful notes
And antiquated notions (what?!)
But! - it's poetry in motion
When she turned her eyes to me
As deep as any ocean
Sweet as any harmony
She blinded me with science
"She blinded me with - with science

Well, to be honest I don't truly believe the Elenin end of the world disaster scenario, despite some interesting "correlations". But after reading a few of the posts of the 4 or so people, who have pics and are ganging up on the Elenin "believers", I'd like to point just a few things out. One of which is the attack of the fact that correlation doesnt not mean causation. This is in deed a true fact, however if you discredit all correlation, I wonder how science would end up workin out. How much of scientific observation is based on correlation. Its simply used as a means to form a hypothesis which can be further tested in attempts to draw a tighter correlation. Well how does the correlation between Elenin and the earthquakes not seem worthy of an hypothesis. Besides, based on the professor from Cornell, Dr. Mensur Omerbashich, his hypothesis was that the disturbances are not caused by gravity but some resonating effect, which can be compared to the whole 'soldiers marching on a bridge' or an opera singer breaking glass idea. But whats probably most compelling (once again using correlation) about this paper is actually about the allignments with the inner planets, which also coincide with larger earthquakes. This I guess goes against the theory which seemed to be included in a comment that the be all end all cause of earthquakes are the due to magma convection. Besides, any scientific evidence in which magma convection is tied to earthquakes would in fact be based on correlation. So if you believe that these inner planets could possibly be causing earthquakes when in allignment, then I wonder what the gravitational effect that they would have. I guess someone on this site should read the paper which likely caused this whole debate, because it clearly states that the effect is not so much due to gravity and that seems to be the basis for the argument against the effects. I would just like to point out that Dr. Omerbashich believes that the Sept. 27 allignment will not even cause significant earthquakes due to the shorter length of time in which it'll be alligned, based on his georesonator theory.

Well how does the correlation between Elenin and the earthquakes not seem worthy of an hypothesis.
You have to understand what a hypothesis is.   I can draw a correlation between the color of the shirts I was wearing and earthquakes.  That is impossible to you, right?   Well, in physics, the gravitational pull of my shirt in those earthquakes sites is equivalent to the pull of a comet 22 million miles away so if there is any variation in my shirt due to its color, that could be implicated.

Instead a hypothesis requires evidence first.   Not events.  Look, I can make any event imply correlation and causation.   You know those riots in the Mid-East that have been happening?   The outbreaks of those happens to rise and fall with the price of steel.   So if we use your definition of hypothesis, it is valid to spend time researching whether people in the mid-east are rioting over the price of steel.

This Dr. Mensur Omerbashich is the guy who insists SWAT teams have been kicking in his door at 4 AM over his speculation.  His PhD is in theoretical geophysics.   No one even knows what that means.   It's like you have a PhD in Quantum Paleontology or Theoretical Phys Ed.   Yet you will believe him rather than a million actual scientists?
So there are a million actual scientists out there saying that Elenin can not have any effect on seismic activity. That makes sense. Let me ask you a question, are you an actual scientist? If so, then what credentials do you need to be an actual scientists. You refute someone who has far more credentials than you seem to be putting on the line. I believe this site is a science site, yet you are the one who seems to be counter-science. You are arguing that you dont form an hypothesis based on correlation and you're only argument is to throw out crap like your shirt causes earthquakes. Tell you what, form a decent hypothesis that isn't based on correlation. That would prove me wrong. And as to your second example I believe that you should research whether the middle east is rioting over the price of steel. Because if you take anything from the news, they are rioting over the price of food and commodities essential for basic living. Thus you may branch out to this conclusion in researching your initial steel hypothesis. Its not about being right all the time, its about keeping an open mind.

You refute someone who has far more credentials than you seem to be putting on the line. I believe this site is a science site, yet you are the one who seems to be counter-science.
No, every physicist in the world refutes him.  Because he is wrong.  The only people not refuting him are conspiracy places that make money exploiting the gullible or engaging in fear-mongering.

Which of those two are you?
Im just curious, can you make one reply without a false statement. Or even a reply with one truthful statement. Every physicist in the world refutes him. Is that right? Let me guess, there are a million of em too. Ohh and hes theoretical geophysicist (at Cornell), so I guess rather than a physicist refuting him it should probably be a phys ed teacher right. Or I guess for that matter it could be any guy who doesn't know what hes talking about and makes up facts. I would be amazed if you found one physicist out there that didn't use gravity as an explanation as to why he is wrong. As for me, I understand physics pretty well, but not geophysics (although probably not too different) and definitely not theoretical geophysics. I know little about it, but I'm sure its right along the same lines of theoretical physics only its applied to the earth (that was tough). Therefore, for me to refute his findings would be outlandish, especially if I have no backing for it other than to say it doesn't make sense and try to apply some unrelated knowledge (gravitational effects) as to why it doesnt.

I don't believe it!
There she goes again!
She's tidied up, and I can't find anything!
All my tubes and wires
And careful notes
And antiquated notions (what?!)
But! - it's poetry in motion
When she turned her eyes to me
As deep as any ocean
Sweet as any harmony
She blinded me with science
"She blinded me with - with science

My real opinion is that something whether its a comet or the sun is causing increased activity. This cannot be disputed in any way shape or form.

My personal investigation shows the influence of the U SHAPE orbit of a asteroid we just discovered coincides with increased activity on our planet 50 years before and after its closest point before turning around to go the other way.
It relates perfectly to all of the major eruptions over the last 600 years.
If you think this is a coincidence look at major eruptions and then look at the USHAPED asteroids path for the last 600 years. Every 150 years we start to see activity and then the largest recorded eruptions at its closest point. I believe you could even go farther back if you had reliable records. ETNA is active again and was not at the time of the asteroids discovery. I made a personal prediction that is would be come active if my hypothesis was correct. I was correct.
This asteroid also is at its closest in late 2012. AT this moment I believe we will see the worlds largest volcanoes blow smoke very soon. Most have of them have already but we still have a couple more to go. I believe we will see volcanoes in areas where we didn't know they have been active for millions of years. One spot is just west of Trinidad, Co where in April I put a mark on google earth. That spot had its first recorded earth quake. A very long time ago it was a caldera just like Yellowstone.
Take it for what its worth and do your own research.
But do not make the assumption that we understand even a tiny fraction of our universe or how it works....

Mike

I'd love to see your research, I've got an idea, create yourself an account here, and publish it.

How'd you come to pick Trinidad?
Never is a long time.
Mt Etna is the most active volcano in Europe, an eruption is nothing to write home about. You predicted the most active volcano in Europe would have an eruption? You should take up sports betting.

Please look up yearly earthquake activity. This year is no different than any other. Only increased media exposure has brought this to people's attention making them think it's more active than it really is.

And the southern colorado earthquake is nothing surprising. How do you think the Sangre de Christo mountains were uplifted?

"If you think this is a coincidence look at major eruptions and then look at the USHAPED asteroids path for the last 600 years. Every 150 years we start to see activity and then the largest recorded eruptions at its closest point. I believe you could even go farther back if you had reliable records."

what are you even saying here? a recurring asteroid visit every 600 years causing cyclical eruptions of all the major volcanoes on earth? if the orbit is USHAPED, how does it make a return journey to the sun? I guess Nibiru is pushing them in every 600 years or so, huh? We have very accurate and reliable records of many thousands of eruptions, you should look up some actual numbers and see if you can make some correlation.

Please look up yearly earthquake activity. This year is no different than any other. Only increased media exposure has brought this to people's attention making them think it's more active than it really is.
Thank you for pointing that out also, since I tried and no one was listening to me.
Heres one for you....

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/09/22/cern_spots_ftl_neutrinos/

now you can throw out relativity man doesn't that mean the basic laws of physics also.....?

Not a good day for some scientist...

Mike

Perhaps you should actually learn how to read before you run your mouth.  Have you learned nothing?

This quote from your link says it well:
Because it encourages a simplistic and ignorant understanding of science among the general public.
The test of a theory is that it can be falsified. It’s the last test, if you like, of real science. Only simpletons need to live in a world in which falsifiability somehow equals inadequacy.
You truly don't get it.
Mundus vult decipi
Here is the link ...

http://www.space.com/11316-asteroid-earth-horseshoe-orbit.html

Not mythical and as for eruptions well yes I did look at yearly and historical
eruptions. That is how I formed my thesis......and I dont care about everyday eruptions just historic eruptions.....

So yes I did my homework on this and without even looking up the u shaped orbit atseroid you atomatically dismissed it a fake. Now who's science sucks ass.... not mine ...

Mike

LMAO,
Asteroid 2010 SO16, isn't Erenin, so who cares!

Never is a long time.
Here is the link ...

http://www.space.com/11316-asteroid-earth-horseshoe-orbit.html

Not mythical and as for eruptions well yes I did look at yearly and historical
eruptions. That is how I formed my thesis......and I dont care about everyday eruptions just historic eruptions.....

So yes I did my homework on this and without even looking up the u shaped orbit atseroid you atomatically dismissed it a fake. Now who's science sucks ass.... not mine ...

Mike

Anybody here ever Astrally Travel outside their body? Oh I forgot that ability probably does not exist in a scientific view of the world either. But I got to tell you it sure is fun talking to the people who really know the whole story... You are all very intelligent people i am sure but just dont close the door completely on things that havent been proven YET. Remember the Earth was flat at one point until it was proven to be round and those with faith proved it to be so.

The earth was never flat, and it wasn't believed to be so by the majority of people.  This is a mythical claim like so many others that people love to indulge in.
Mundus vult decipi
Hmmm whos the one indulging in conspiracy theories now. Where did you hear such a claim? Or did you just make it up?

The myth that Christians in the Middle Ages thought the world was flat was given a massive boost by Andrew Dickson White's weighty tomeThe Warfare of Science with Theology. This book has become something of a running joke among historians of science and it is dutifully mentioned as a prime example of misinformation in the preface of most modern works on science and religion. The flat Earth is discussed inchapter 2 and one can almost sense White's confusion that hardly any of the sources support his hypothesis that Christians widely believed in it.
http://www.bede.org.uk/flatearth.htm

During the early Middle Ages, virtually all scholars maintained the spherical viewpoint first expressed by the Ancient Greeks. By the 14th century, belief in a flat earth among the educated was essentially dead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_the_Flat_Earth

Of course that's without even going into the writings of the Greeks, etc.  This is the problem when people want to raise questions or issues and can't even do a simple Google search.

This almost makes my point for me.  You'd rather be a wise-ass, then to look for a few minutes to see if there's any basis for the statement.  Given that level of thoroughness, it's little wonder that you believe every piece of nonsense that someone presents to you.
Mundus vult decipi
Hmmm, thats weird, neither of your posts prove your statement. Neither of them are legitimate. And let me explain to because it cites no factual knowlege that this guys book is false. The second statement is from wikipedia and has no citation associated with it. However, it does start to go into how scholars and christian scholars didn't believe it. But, as I recall your comment was that the majority didn't believe and not just that 'scholars', which can be defined by whatever terms you want, didnt believe. Also, as I further explained, your point has no bearing on the actual point that he was trying to get across.

You can't be that dumb.  I pointed to two quick posts that indicate why the flat earth view is a myth.  If you wanted to be more accurate you could certainly look up those references and then dig through the references of the ancient Greeks.  However, the mere fact that the Greeks knew the Earth was round, precludes any meaningful consideration that the Middle Ages had somehow lost that knowledge.

I'm not in the business of providing proofs to you, but if you want to insist on posting silliness, then I'll leave you to your own research.
Mundus vult decipi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_Earth
Proves that you are wrong.

Perhaps you could explain again how your link proves me wrong?

The misconception that educated people at the time of Columbus believed in a flat Earth, and that his voyages refuted that belief, has been referred to as "The Myth of the Flat Earth".[6] In 1945, it was listed by the Historical Association (of Britain) as the second of 20 in a pamphlet on common errors in history
Mundus vult decipi
Again doesnt say anything about majority now does it. The educated were probably a far cry from the majority in those days. Besides, you keep refering to the Greeks as knowing the earth was round. That site says that in China this belief was mostly unquestioned till the 17th century. In the age of handwritten books, it'd be very easy to see why the majority would think the earth was flat and why the greeks knowing doesnt translate to the rest of the world knowing.

Hmmm whos the one indulging in conspiracy theories now. Where did you hear such a claim? Or did you just make it up?

Besides, even if you're right, this has no bearing on his statement becauset here are plenty of other well believed ideas that have been proven wrong with time.

And where is the scientific evidence that the majority of the people believed the Earth to be round?

By the way I know the Earth was not ever flat. But at one point it was thought to be by many.

WHAT !!!!!!!
The Earth is round?????
What kind of sorcery is this?????

Be gone with you demons, with your doomsday chariot of fire!

Ok nut jobs I throw down the gauntlet at your feet!
If you are so convinced that the world is going to end, just simply stop paying off your debts as it makes no difference.

Oh interesting read, many thanks.

Gerhard and Hank,
how about u both put ur ego aside for two minutes and try, just try to present your case without your superiority complex getting in the way. there are people on here who are genuinely interested and concerned about this issue. Fisrt thing you are overlooking is that is cannot be positively identified as a comet, which is most likely where alot of the fear is coming from. also you have to consider the possibility that you and other members of the scientific community DONT know everything... infact the truly scientific mind knows that no matter how much it knowledge it contains, there is an infinite number of things it does not understand, such is the basic philosophy of any good scientist. If all people believed as you do the human race would still be living in caves. The pair of you are so certain that its a dirty snowball that you fail to take into account that unless we can get to a comet and sample it, what it is made of is merely speculation based on the results of tests that cannot be taken as gospel due to the fact that we are never able to examine it properly. not to mention u keep dismissing things based on ur whole belief that a flea in Amsterdam cant possibly have any effect of a tanker in the ocean... Ever heard of the butterfly effect??? chaos theory perhaps?? forget opening ur eyes, try opening your mind. You both come accross as morons. U want people to believe to you, tell them to look to the sky, with the distance this body is from earth it should be well and truly visible by now if it was significant enough to do any of the things people claim it will

How about this idea?   Figure this crap out for yourself if you want to spread fear.  You've already been told the scientific position, so if you don't like it, then conduct your own investigation, hunker down in a cave, or dance to the moonlight.  I'm certainly not in this to impress you.

I'm tired of people that know next to nothing about science, coming on about how scientists think they know it all.  IF YOU BELIEVE SCIENCE DOESN'T KNOW IT, THEN STOP ASKING!  Go figure this stuff out for yourself and live with the consequences.

Regarding the butterfly effect and chaos theory ... please stop spouting crap you learned while watching Jurassic Park.  If you knew anything about chaos theory you wouldn't say anything as stupid as you just did.
Mundus vult decipi
Personally, I find it difficult to understand why the comment thread has to turn into a boxing arena? Why can't people express their opinions and concerns and listen to other people's viewpoints and explanations without taking personal offence or resorting to insults? Surely that's neither a very scientific or civilised approach?
My article about researchers identifying a potential blue green algae cause & L-Serine treatment for Lou Gehrig's ALS, MND, Parkinsons & Alzheimers is at http://www.science20.com/forums/medicine
Quite simply, (speaking for myself), I'm tired of people that can't be bothered to do a Google search, that clearly haven't done the most basic gathering of data, and then proclaim how ignorant scientists are because they don't know "everything" and then basically insist that their opinions should be taken seriously.

If these people know so much, then let them do their own investigation and spare the rest of us their ceaseless questioning of scientific motivations and integrity.  You don't come on to a science site, insult scientists, and then ask them their opinions.

Personally I'm getting to the point of where I wish the LHC would produce a black hole large enough to swallow the whole bloody lot of them up.
Mundus vult decipi
gerhard.

i reckon you've been a bit over reacting the whole time. i've felt attacked and labelled by you from the start and think it is clear that you have decided to fight with me, without actually trying to understand what i'm saying.
i was giving no insult but it seems much was taken. that's your issue.

I have tried to understand, but you swing from vague platitudes (such as people's sense of "rightness") to specifics like ridiculing a theory based on facts (which is a good thing).  In particular, you seem to have some kind of axe to grind against science.

As I mentioned before, anyone that thinks science is perfect doesn't understand it.  Similarly anyone that expects to come to a scientist for personal reassurance because of conspiracy crap that they heard all over the net, is coming to the wrong place.  It isn't a scientist's responsibility to make up for an educational deficiency fostered by listening to hype and not doing even the most basic queries to find out something factual.

If you've read any of my posts, I have no problem in challenging the status quo regarding various ideas and theories, but even at my worst, I try to render an argument that establishes the basis of my criticism and postulate a counter-argument.  This may not be convincing and it may be wildly wrong, but at least I'm not engaged in fear-mongering to people that simply want to absorb additional lies into a belief system already filled with them.

My attitude is summed up by this quote:

Mundus vult decipi or "The world wishes to be deceived".

... and it annoys me
Mundus vult decipi
Truth be told; it's hard to take someone seriously as being educated or informed when they can't be bothered to write properly in using punctuation or capitalization.  It's a sign of disrespect for those expected to read their comments.  I can appreciate a typo or spelling error occurring, but I expect supposedly intelligent posts to read more coherently than some passed note in a schoolroom.

There are many people here whose primary language is not English, and it is annoying to see posts where the writer can't even bother to hit the Shift key when it is needed.  If one is too lazy to write their thoughts out properly, then what else in their thought processes are they lazy about?
Mundus vult decipi
Well Gerhard, I think you might be being a bit hard on 'flow' and some of the other commenters and maybe I should take some of the blame for that? People like me have probably worn down your patience over the years and now occasionally, quite understandably, you take it out on people who are probably much less guilty or deserving of this treatment.

If its any consolation, I like to think that you have had a positive effect upon me and I am now definitely trying to be more scientific in my approach, my research, my criticisms of scientists and my concerns about what they are or are not doing, but I would like to point out that you achieved this by always reasoning with me and rarely insulting or ridiculing me and I think this is the best and most effective response to people's often unfounded concerns that they express here.
My article about researchers identifying a potential blue green algae cause & L-Serine treatment for Lou Gehrig's ALS, MND, Parkinsons & Alzheimers is at http://www.science20.com/forums/medicine
I probably am, but there's nothing that will draw my ire faster than someone complaining that science can't answer every question and that scientists are lying.  I'm not naive enough to believe that everyone is honest, nor that there aren't political manipulations or agendas that can occur.  I also recognize that there are bad scientists just as readily as there are good ones.  However, I'm also a staunch enough defender to say that before one can level criticism you have to have worked to earn that right in a conversation.

If someone doesn't want to accept science, then don't come on a science site.  I'm not religious, but I don't go trolling religious sites to voice my opinions.  If someone wants to accept conspiracies, then there's certainly enough sites that they can go to and revel in their various beliefs.  There's no need to come here and expect everyone to do their research for them to debunk their claims.

If they don't have a coherent argument, then don't bother.
Mundus vult decipi
What scientists have been insulted on this site?

Ha!

"i seem" - what vague sense of rightness gave you that idea? you insult me, you look for insult and you avoid addressing points which catch you out. you, sir, are a troll.

What are you talking about?  Do you have a point that needs to be addressed?  By all means, spell it out.  If it's just a vague sense that science isn't all-knowing and fully accurate, then it isn't worth the bother.
Mundus vult decipi
do i really need to quote your own post at you for you to get it? i thought you were presenting yourself as smart. does it need spelling out. Sorry. i forgot. i'm arguing with a troll.

Is the above paragraph the kind of communication you'd like to engender? to me it seems like mudslinging and belongs in the playpit, yet is is a fair reflection of your posts. take a big deep breath and remember to treat your fellow humans as equals. if you hold a truth and cannot get anyone else to see it, then you are really bad at communicating. upskill, don't insult. its not helpful.

getting low and dirty again, mr troll?

i use a lower case "i" deliberately. because i think that the concept of self is over emphasised in modern society.

the purpose of language is communication. if communication has occurred, then the language has been successful. if someone wants to ignore the content of the communication because it fails to meet rules laid down in the ages before txt machines, then those people need to reconsider their attitudes.

i find it annoying to read a troll who will ignore 95% of a post and pick up on one little thing that annoys them then rant mindlessly about it. that's my issue, and i'm going to get over it.

"never argue with a fool, for who can tell the difference?".

yours, foolishly.

It figures.
Mundus vult decipi
i use a lower case "i" deliberately. because i think that the concept of self is over emphasised in modern society.
But c'mon, you have to admit that was a pretty good rationalization.
"when they can't be bothered to write properly in using punctuation or capitalization"

When they can't be bothered to write properly, using punctuation and capitalisation.

"I expect supposedly intelligent posts to read more coherently than some passed note in a schoolroom."

I expect supposedly-intelligent posts to read more coherently than some note passed in a schoolroom.

Now that that's out of the way, I would like to say that 'alignment theory', plus September's general increase in seismicity, a peaking solar cycle and the price of apples these days have induced me to buy a decent tent and a lot of seeds. I keep them by the front door and am continuing to pay the rent.

Cheers.

I love stories like this. :D
OK, Doomers, your next end of the world date is Oct. 21, since that's the date Camping readjusted the Rapture to after his previous one went pfft. See you in the funny papers.

Every scientific fact started out as a faith based theory/idea that was proven to be true or false. Science is good and has given us a lot but sometimes it can become a closed box which does not want to let in ideas outside the box. This world needs science as well as faith and I do not believe they should be kept seperate. Faith creates ideas we belive in to be proven and science either proves or disproves them by the information at hand. A lot of ideas however that have been found false at one point in time were proven to be true at another point in time.

By the way our libraries of books give us a lot of information from the past and present day but may not give us all the information that happened. We should realize we may not have ALL the facts about our planet yet even though sometimes we think we do. Just saying we should keep an open mind and not close the door completely.

Just for the record I do not think we will know the date of our destruction. At the pace we are destroying the planet we are sure to get there at some point though.

It's funny -- and scary -- that for all the breathtaking progress that has taken place in science and technology, ignorance and superstition seem to be more in in vogue -- and are certainly more politically influential -- today than they were fifty years ago. One very ironic reason for that is that the Internet, a product of rationality, has proven to be such a boon to the irrational.

It is the progress of our inner self that matters. The obsession to control ones surroundings is the madness and is scary for it will be our undoing in the end.

...and so it goes.
Mundus vult decipi
I get depressed when I read so many ridiculous ideas .. why are so many people so childish ? Science works. Scientists are not conspiritors and liers. You cannot do science unless you do science. If you really care you should LEARN SOME PHYSICS : DO SOME MATHEMATICS : PUT THE TIME IN !!!! Why do so many people form arguments with real experts without having any knowledge or scientific experience themselves ? Do you people know what it is like to live in a world with a sharp mind because you trained it and having hordes of non-scientists pulling hypothesis out of comic book fantasies and arguing like hell about how experts dont know what they are talking about ? Like the 9-11 conspiracy bs ??? You cannot argue with these people. I guess they are insecure and seek empowerment by winning arguments with experts by repeating the same crap over and over, never listening, and telling everyone who disagrees they do not have an open mind. Give me a friggin break.

mi cro, hate to tell you, but your science is old! there are new forms of "solar Panels", collector cells, that you obviously haven't heard of, and new advances in batteries that special interests [ oil, coal, and nuclear] have bought the patents to, just to keep their profits flowing it's truly sad 99% don't even know this exists!Even saying that, I can still make it work with the bull we already have!

tony, please don't be a muppet. its embarrassing for all of us.

until someone cracks the secret (which probably doesn't exist) of creating energy from the void then we are stuck with the rules of conservation of energy. you simply are not going to create energy. and every system has losses. those losses mean you lose energy to the outside of your system in the form of heat and light and such mundane things. so no, you can't "make" more energy that you "create" by burning your fossil fuels.
i'd love to be proved wrong, so as soon as you've built something that does just that, i'd like to see it, in the meantime i suggest some physics 101.

Great, I look forward to seeing your youtube video.
Never is a long time.
sweetheart. it takes energy to produce an electric current in a dynamo. if you had a freely running wheel connected to an unplugged dynamo, then turned the dynamo on (connected it to a light, say), the wheel would stop. the kinetic energy of the wheel is turned into the electrical energy in the light, and so into heat and light.

re-generational breaking is amazing. it captures energy that would otherwise be dissipated in the form of sound and heat and light (ever seen the break pads of racing cars glow cherry red just before a sharp corner?).

but it doesn't create extra energy, it just reduces the inefficiency. the efficiency is still LESS than unity, so no perpetual yet.

can i restate my request? show me your energy from nowhere machine, please.

Once more you've fell for what your ignorant professors have taught you! and where are my last few posts?And what the hell are you talking about "it takes energy to produce an electric current in a dynamo" ? Do you even know what a field frame or an armature or a commutator is? The wheel won't stop turning if you employ generators! That's what kinetic energy is. They've used dynamic braking on trains since the invention of the electric motor. It reverses the polarity to slow the train going downhill. The "extra" energy is burned off in the form of heat on a resistor wall. These could just as easily be capacitors, and hold a charge for another use. How do I know? Because it was already being done! Please argue with Nikola Tesla! Yes, they [Edison, G.E., Westinghouse...]want you to remain ignorant!

C'mon where's my post about the bicycle generators, and the trolley's and the subways, Yet another conspiracy? What's wrong scared I might be right? One of the seven deadly sins? Dollar got ya"? Oh well I'm not typing all that \$#!+ again! That's exactly what Ive been saying all along, and that will be our demise! Anyway check out the new high speed train in Italy, It uses regeneration and sends a charge back to their grid, and hardly uses any electricity at all!

Yea! you "kinda'", got me going, just wait smartasses. Have you ever heard [speaking of race cars] about K.E.R.S., that's kinetic energy recovery system? Well, it's being used on the new Indy cars! Another way regenerational braking is already being used. They try to say it's experimental, but it's rather simple technology, and could easily be introduced on electric cars, as I have already stated it was used in a prototype in 1967!

tony. this is going to be tough for you to accept. please take a deep breath.

all those wonderful things you told us about are truly amazing. BUT. they do not break the laws of conservation of energy. they are all part of systems that run at less than 100% efficiency. this is key. if you don't understand what i mean, then you need to go do homework before you speak again. i understand all the systems you have described. extremely well. i WISH that there was some way to be making free energy, but -as yet- there is not. we are not even close to cracking the energy of the aether (sorry, grid, or whatever its called these days), and that would give us so much energy we'd be bounding about like bunnies until the end of time (which might occur a bit earlier as a result). there is -not- a conspiracy from me, or from anyone i know to 'hide' greater-than-unity devices. and i'm a hyperdimensional alien visitor to earth.

so please. take this as a friendly bit of advice. listen to what i'm telling you. if you are really into this stuff, take a physics course, then build your magical device and show it to us. in the meantime, keep quiet, as you are antagonising the trolls, and they can be very very mean.

What do you think they already do with electric/hybrid cars?

But, let me spell this out for you. I'm familiar with the KERS system in F1.

They get 80hp, and lets say that they can produce that 80hp for about 30 seconds before they have to harness kinetic energy to recharge the batteries.

So that's 80 x 30 = 2400 hp seconds of energy.
There's 746 watts/hp, so 2400 * 746 = 1790400 Watt seconds, looking good....
Divide by 1000 to get kilowatt seconds = 1790.4 kilowatt seconds
Divide by 3600 (60 minutes * 60 seconds) gets you .4973 kilowatt hours
I pay 6.6 cents/kilowatt hour, but let's be generous and double that.

That's 6.5 cents of electricity you get to sell back to the electric company (minus whatever they charge for transportation fees).

But it gets better, mass produced laptop batteries store about 50 watt hours of energy for ~\$100
To store the 497 Watt hours you want to store would require 10 battery packs costing ~\$1000
At 6.5 cents per charge, you'd need 15,384 charges just to pay for the batteries, unfortunately if you discharge the batteries to 50%, they only last 1500 cycles. Which would double the cycles you need, but in reality you'd have to replace the battery packs 20 times to achieve that number of cycles, now you're up to ~\$20,000 in batteries to sell \$1,000 in electricity. With volume production I bet you could get the costs to half that, only ~\$10,000. On the road to riches you are!

I would say with these kinds of numbers, you could probably get half a billion in green loans from the President.........
Never is a long time.
well. looks like the next step on the road has been taken: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10753779 faster than light massive particles? i'll take two

Well, they appear to be, which is different.  Tommaso had an article on this a few days ago and they asked him to take it down until the public news conference so it will go back up tomorrow.
Hey hyperdumnmensional, hope you got a good sense of humor. You sure are making me laugh!"beakin' the law", get to hoppin'!It is you my friend that can not understand how much energy is being wasted, it goes up and down every road every day.Your wish is my command. Firstly, I feel I must address the statement"energy from the void", 'cause right now I'm kinda' feelin' like animal, you know, the one on the drums. So hear this beat. I'm not sure if you can understand this, but you all live in the place of electricity, time, magnets, and miracles! You all came in on a miracle, you will all use up your energy, and you wll all leave with time What do you think magnets and copper wire are? Where do you believe they came from?Do I have to start "In the beginning"? ALL this came from the void. Once there was no civilization, and sooner or later, there will once again be NO civilization.Thus "Into The Void" It may be hard to comprehend, but soon, after all you've learned, all you will be able to take will be the wisdom accumalated in your soul. So I say not to be so judgemental, not 'til you've learned ALL the facts, which will never happen in this little plane of existence. If it's not going to last forever, then it stands to reason, it must be an illusion! Another dissappearing magic act, as this message now finds you. So c'mon and let your little trolls meet the Master of Reality!

:) now you make me smile.

words are cheap my friend, and i know well the entropy dance along the sun's energy eflux. however, and this is the third time. SHOW us your magical machine, and all is good. otherwise its just philosophy, speculation and dreams, and _this_ is manifest reality. you gotta build it _here_ for it to work.

Thanks to all of you for the entertainment... Must say this was a very interesting read. Will rather stick to the God theory at least that makes more sense.

But that doesn't provide an answer to anything, other than that's the way it is, which is no answer at all....
Never is a long time.
Here's my theary! and getting back to the real matter at hand. This is at my website at www.wixcom/koolkreations/kalopins-legacy . There are several forces that come into play, but the main one being overlooked are cosmic rays! Dr. NIKOLA TESLA Mechanical Oscillator. I hope to give you all a little education in electricity. Please follow this link: http://www.rexresearch/telsamos/tmosc.htm , and read and study this information carefully! Here is your magnificent machine, and this is, what I think is causing the disturbance on the Earths' crust. A Vibration between fault lines.Have you not ever heard of the art of "telegeodynamics"? Yeah, good vibrations. But one more thing, I'm still not sure if it's mainly due to the comet hitting the limit of the speed of sound or U.S.G.S. playing with the world! Just another conspiracy theory for us nuts to contemplate! I hope this helps, and don't mean to sound condensending or arrogant or egotistical, but maybe you should have studied more out of school, cause I'm not sure if any proffessor at any achool will teach you this! BUTT please, you kow what they say about opinions, but go ahead and give me yours anyway! lol

Here's my theary!
Pseudoscience alert condition: Yellow
I hope to give you all a little education in electricity.
Pseudoscience alert condition: Orange
There are several forces that come into play, but the main one being overlooked are cosmic rays! Dr. NIKOLA TESLA Mechanical Oscillator.
Pseudoscience alert condition: Red
Tony, you couldn't figure out why the KERS system isn't going to reduce energy usage(edit) by selling energy back to the grid(edit: it does reduce fuel use in hybrids), why would I waste my time getting an education on anything else you think is relevant?

You obviously don't understand electronics. And you are right, you're not going to learn any of this from a Professor.

I'm still not sure if it's mainly due to the comet hitting the limit of the speed of sound

Where do you come up with this stuff?

You realize the comet is going much faster than the speed of sound, and there isn't any air in space that will conduct sound in any case.

You are truly clueless, I'm sorry to be so blunt, but being nice hasn't gotten through to you.
Never is a long time.
now you are just being a numbskull. even your website link didn't work. "Oops! Google Chrome could not find www.wixcom". all the science trolls can do is verbally deconstruct you. i can send self-transforming machine elves to eat your gonads. please go away.

Once again, your arguement is with Dr.Tesla! Why shouldn't I get my education from him? He invented All of this! Pseudoscience!? It is all documented proof. Tesla caused a controlled earthquake and almost brought down his own building! Did you even read the link? It was reported in several newspapers, and has been documented as fact! You do see what is wrong don't you. You all jump to your own conclusions without study. Give me proof that it didn't happen and it won't work! Not talking about electronics, talking about electricity! Don't Know the subject, don't make a comment! Sound in space comes out in the form of cosmic rays, and Tesla said they could travel anywhere from fifty to five hundred times the maximum speed of light! PALEEESE, AFTER you read the article get back in touch, so I don't have to brainslap you again. Your mentalmasturbation is frustating at best.

Give me proof that it didn't happen and it won't work!
Oh, that is how it works?  Give me proof I did not travel back in time and cause Tesla's alleged earthquake then.  If you can't do it, we are at an impasse - with you on the quackery side and me on the side of sanity.
I can only shake my head that a single human brain could get so many things wrong and confused within a single lifetime.  It must take real effort.
Mundus vult decipi
You're mistake is that you assume they used their brain in the first place. :-)

On a side note: If you replace the words "Elenin", "Comet", etc. with "God", "Jesus", or "The Bible" they'd start sounding like those crazed religion fanatics. Note the irony. Isn't religion itself supposed to be a conspiracy?

You guys ever heard of H.A.A.R.P., or area 51? They're way past ya'!

LOL
Mundus vult decipi
The Chicken Little phenomenon is easily explained when you look at it from a psychological stand point. Delusional, unbalanced minds will come up with any reason to escape reality. I wish all of the Doomsdayers and conspiracy theorists would all commit suicide right now and get it over with. It would do wonders for the gene pool.

...And what a great world it would be, if all we had in this world were people like you, who would wish people to kill theirselves!!!

Well, it is almost 11 eastern time where I am and yep, bright and sunny. Coincidentally, today is the release of the 6 disk box set of Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon which contains all kids of goodies from behind the scenes to making of etc...So this must be the Dark Side of the Moon everyone was waiting for...

That's terrific news.  And relevant.  A Pink Floyd box set has as much chance of causing earthquakes as the remains of that tiny comet.
sorry for the typo above. Kinds* instead of kids. I would like to add one more quote by the man himself Carl Sagan, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence"

Hey, "piper at the gates of dawn", i got a "saucerful of secrets" for ya"! I'll probably go ahead and get that one two since I got ALL the others, and including the movies "More", "The Valley", and of course "The Wall", big Floyd fan. Go ahead and get Syd's stuff two! Check out the ole blues guys two [Pinkney Anderson and Bubba Floyd]. That's where I studied philosophy 101 at, from professors Pink Floyd and Black Sabbath! I know Sabbath's workin" on a new one, but I'm hoping, even though we lost Rick, that Roger and David can get back with Nick and give us a new one! Anyway I'd better give us something relavent so we don't get slammed on by "the man". I was just gonna say that I'm sure everyone realizes that the comet is not the only object moving at a high rate of speed! You have to at least calculate the speed of our solar system, which is not always going in the same direction [as the comet], and the speed of our galaxy, which I'm not sure has even been calculated! Oh grasshopper, are you still unable to take the pebble from my hand?!

hi,
since last month i've been trying to get a yes or no answer if the earth is going to be affected in any negative way during the dates of 9/11- 11/11. I've read good news that gives me hope, then bad news that gives me anxiety and depression, because I'm still young and have a future with my kids to look forward to. Yes, you can call me gullible to the conspiracy theories if you'd like, but its just that every time i do a search on Elenin and its impact, I get more bad then good news. This really bothers me because every chance I get i either research it, or ask somebody their thoughts about it. After class, I pulled my physics professor aside and he said everything will be fine.. but i still dont know. I Just need a good rational answer. Thanks(:

It's personal preference, really. If people who don't know anything at all about physics or science are equivalent to people who do know physics and science, then you might want to worry.

What little is left of this comet is 22 million miles away.  You have a better chance of being in a car accident on the Pacific ocean than you do of having any impact from Elenin or any other comet in your lifetime.
Yeah, we all got opinions, but truthfully at this point, noone really knows for sure. it's true it may reform after it slingshots around the sun, but even so, it's my belief your good professor, and yes, even Hank are correct on this one! Maybe a couple of pretty meteor showers or a little RF interference, but, I don't think there'll be much else, although this scenerio is very real, and it would be nice if more people would get serious, and help make better plans to get more prepared. Whether young or old, I'm sure we all agree on this, we need to give more to the future. Anyway, what I was saying about the speed of an object is that I believe "the wobble effect" would also cause a variation, coming from the Sun, the Earth, and even the whole solar system. I thought it would be relavent since the Mayans based their long count calender on the wobble of the Earth, each one being a "baktun", and we are coming to the end of the thirteenth baktun, which as I'm sure you are all aware of is 12/21/12, when the calendar will be reset to 0.0.0.0.0. after 1,872.000 days, a great cycle or a "world age"! At least, as was interpetted, that is if it actually began on Sept. 6, 3114 B.C. on the Julian calender that we use. Anyway, "Never Say Die!","Over to You"

Thanks so much to all...... This has had to have been one of the best reads I have had is many a year.
The cross-section of minds in this one room has expanded my understanding of the comet elenin tenfold. I an probally the most challanged as my opinion tends to lean to both the science nerds and extreame doomsayers both. I believe that there is to be more major earth changing disasters in the near future, either natural or man made, not because of this comet but only for my own personal need to see change in the exsistance of humanity on this planet. This is the doomsayer as such, the science side of me parallels this chain of thought as I see the results of a ( common) as such earthquake has on our infustructure ie nucular power plant in japan. So bring on elenin the form changing, super massed, battery type capacitor brown dwarf.

I awaite your appearence with a cool beer at hand, my tent packed, my seeds stored........ and the rent paid :o)

Your missing 'comments' are junk links to your kooky website.   They got flagged by the Akismet spam filter, not us, so you must carpet bomb lots of places with conspiracy comments.  But, again, you will contend it is Big Science out to Suppress Truth and nothing you have done to yourself.
prophecy is only proven after the fact , which is post-diction in many eyes.
"the truth is only a fool predicts the future"
But the facts are something is going on
comet elenin
yu55
space debris
magnetic portals
solar flares
earth quakes
volcano's
planetary alignments
president and NASA in Denver bunker
solar flares
stories of the 1859 solar flare

Hey ! Can any of you Einsteins' tell me what propels this so called ice packed dirt ball through the expanse of space? If you can then figure out how to use that for transportation instead of this million year old dinosaur crap that we should of stopped using about 50 years ago or more.

um. the comet is falling. its called gravity. it picks up speed as it falls down the sun's well, then follows a nice straight line around it (a bit like a coin does when you drop it into one of those spiral things, less friction and air resistance) and pops back out again, where it gradually decellarates as it works its way back up and out of the well, until it curls back down in again. and on....

yep. falling. downhill. same waves the waves fall downhill towards the moon as it orbits us.
and it aint 3d its 3+1D, or 3+1+1D if you are into spiritual dimensions. downhill therefore is a word i used for easy understanding as opposed to nitpicking exactness.

as for where it came from? maybe its a bit of sun pee returning (as planets are sun poo orbiting). depends on your take on planetary formation. we could ask god i guess. wait. i think pink floyd ate him. or he's hiding inside the hollow earth (which is what you get if you believe the vortex accretion theories)

and gravitational 'attraction'? whatever. picture a sheet bending in 4d covered with ball bearings more like. wait. betcha can't. took me 5 years of hard work to see a 4d object, and that was the simplest polytope. perhaps you could blag it, though.

which side were you on, tony? the scientists or the doomsayers?

I'd just like to say that responding to people in a condescending fashion isn't a sign of intelligence, contrary to what seems to be many of your beliefs, and I also speculate that those involved in the scientific community have been unraveling the "impossible" since the dawn of man. Furthermore, as "scientists", you shouldn't so quickly dismiss things you cannot prove. You can throw math and physics around all day, but that doesn't make you any more intuitive than anyone else, and not everything is explainable with science. I can link you to some really interesting unsolved physical anomalies that have happened throughout recorded history and maybe you can explain those too.

I wish you guys would make up your mind.  September didn't work out, so now it's November?  Do you have any idea how difficult it is to constantly have someone telling you to pack up and leave someplace, because doomsday is around the corner?

Do you have a clue as to how stupid it sounds?
Mundus vult decipi
HANK,

Thank you for removing my comment.
You probably just saved science from terrorists like me..

I don't remove anything unless it is spam.  Have you seen some of these goofy comments??  But your conspiratorial streak is showing if you think it must be me.
my comment was no spam. The only link I included was to Nasa.gov... and I don't think it was half as goofy as most of the comments in the present verbal conflict, including both sides.
And, man, hold back your obsession about conspiracists... I think it was you because my comment was removed after having been on for about 24 hours, because it was attacking your position and gerhard's - although with no hostile intention other than the one of debating freely - and you are apparently the manager of this site.
I am not a doomsdayer nor conspiracy theorist. I am precisely concerned about the anti-scientific behaviours and I am convinced your superiority complex plays a role in it.... And so far you are just proving my point...
I would like that comment to come back. I will try to upload a "lighter" version of it, if you don't mind.
Best
paete

my comment was no spam. The only link I included was to Nasa.gov... and I don't think it was half as goofy as most of the comments in the present verbal conflict, including both sides.
Again, I did not delete it so asking for it to 'come back' is pointless.  If I didn't delete anyone else's comments - and you agree there are a lot of goofy ones - I am not sure why you believe I would single you out.
Just to make things clear : I am no doomsdayer nor conspiracy theorist. The point of me writing here is my concern about our modern society's ability to debate and the status of science...And I would like to attract your attention on a few points :

1/ HANK and Gerhard... : How in the world, when you both like to write and talk about it, do you fail to realise your "faith" in science follows the same patterns as a belief-system ??? You BELIEVE in science so hard, my friends, that you end up asserting stupid things like, for example : "alignment is irrelevant, unless me typing in California is exerting gravitational pull on a fishing boat in Japan." Don't you see it is a quite obvious and dubious straw man example ?? The less we can say is it is not a very scientific affirmation...
I understand that uneducated yet commonsensical people refuse to follow you on that... And I HOPE they don't...

2/Gerhard : you seemed so keen to answer that what bothers you is people not "googling" all this... well, my dear friend, googling it led you precisely to all this doomsday crap. And a sincere, fact-based thinking person - of those who LISTEN to the other's arguments - would have been precisely overwhelmed by intriguing coincidences from supposedly reliable NASA models
(I remind that these alignment theories come from the NASA orbital model - which I was surprised no-one properly linked in this whole forum : here it is :
where it can clearly be seen that the 2 alignments SUN-EARTH-ELENIN corresponded exactly to the 2 hardest earthquakes known by human race so far (and the third one was New-zealands' 6.3).

I admit that FACT attracted my attention too, and I looked for scientific answers. I couldn't find anything serious. Only the "this is the end of the world" version Vs retrograde invectives about how stupid doomsdayers are.
As scientists, you should 1/stop taking for granted that someone intrigued by strange facts about comets is a doomsdayer/conspiracist. 2/ not blame people for looking for answers to disturbing facts. If I am not mistaken, that is the very FOUNDATION of your beloved activity, isn't it ? 3/ admit that you can't explain everything. Please, stop saying "impossible!" (when talking about something out of your analyse reach) because that sounds pretty stupid too, and it is anti-science in its rawest state (and that was what Galileo was getting all the time!).
Stop thinking you are the galileos of modern times, because you sound more like the Inquisition of it, forbidding people to challenge the commonly accepted view of the universe. Or do you really think we know so much about comets that Elenin HAS to be as you tell us it is ? come on, a bit of humility is what is lacking in modern days science, especially astronomy, where, by definition, we know close to nothing, as all our samples are by nature far too small.

Through the way you answered to them, calling them stupid, but not giving any decent AND humble explanation, YOU JUST REINFORCED THEIR BELIEFS, no matter where the "truth" lies… Believe me : Science would be better off if you could understand this point…

3/(... For Tony and other Anonymous Conspiracy-theorists, notice that if there really was a NASA involved conspiracy, they would logically have tampered the model so that "normal" people would NOT see the correlation...actually what sounds strange to me is that they seem to have done the exact opposite : to actually feed these rumours...)

4/Flow already said it in previous posts and I agree : "typical lazy man's reductionist attitude of superstitious beliefs that play into preconceived prejudices and biases." is equally active in you, and in all 'scientists'.

Give it a real think if you dare
Best to all

So, let's cut to the chase, since you seem to be an astrophysicists fan; what impact will this comet have on Earth?  I can tell you exactly where it will be every day for the next 10 years so what is the date of the next earthquake?
dear Hank

with all my respect, this question (=your answer to my post about humility of science...) is childish. So If I fail to predict the next strong earthquake, that means that alignment makes no sense because comets ARE this or that ?? And that YOU are right about the composition of Elenin ? Come on... you might be right this time and wrong next time... THAT is the law of the universe...

I am not saying I know what effect it has, I am saying you are retrograde in assuming it is IMPOSIBLE there could be any, because of some static knowledge you have about comets. If you read my post again, which I know you won't do, and it's probably a pity, you might notice it is about your faith in "science", and how it works as an intolerant belief system, not about elenin actually having an effect.

Of course I acknowledge you are probably right this time, out of chance, not out of your great wisdom... But this is still a mere probability, and nothing is impossible. I just can't stand that word in scientist's mouth when talking about astrophysics...

We agree if you and a few others predict the end of the world for eternity you will eventually be right. It is not a lack of humility to point out that you and a few others claiming this comet was having an impact on Earth did not know math or physics, it is just plain truth.
...and once again I will respond:
...where it can clearly be seen that the 2 alignments SUN-EARTH-ELENIN corresponded exactly to the 2 hardest earthquakes known by human race so far (and the third one was New-zealands' 6.3).
What does the NASA link tell us about the earthquakes?  Why you would suggest that these were the "hardest" earthquakes known to humans, and why you believe that a 6.3 is the third "hardest" earthquake known to man.

Just for the record I was in Pasadena during the 7.3 earthquake in S. California in 1992 (so on that basis alone, you're already wrong).  Just yesterday, there was a 6.0-6.5 earthquake in Bali.  Please explain your criteria for the "hardest" earthquakes (beyond those that fit your speculation).
Mundus vult decipi
Paete:

I have visited the NASA site you linked, and checked for the last four alignments between the Sun, Earth, and Elenin.  The last four alignments occur on Sept. 26, 2011; March 14, 2011; Sept. 5, 2010; and Feb. 27, 2010.  The most recent alignment (Sept. 26, 2011) doesn't appear to correspond with any notable earthquakes.  On the other hand, the other three alignments (involving distances that far exceed the most recent alignment) are not too far off from three notable earthquakes:  Magnitude 9.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN March 11, 2011, Magnitude 7.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND September 03, 2010, and Magnitude 8.8 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE February 27, 2010.

Are these the earthquakes you were referring to?

So only half of the alignments correspond with truly large earthquakes (the kind that occur about once a year)—admittedly, ones where the Earth is in between the Sun and Elenin.  Only the Sept. 26, 2011, alignment is a case where Elenin is between the Earth and the Sun.  (What?  Nothing happened?)

The point of closest approach between Elenin and the Earth will be about Oct. 16–17, 2011.  Oooooooooo.

The next alignment where the Earth is in between the Sun and Elenin will be about Nov. 22, 2011.  Oh Nooooooo.

David
David

Do you have any idea why the idea of alignments would suggest some kind of interaction and the mechanics that is being suggested here?  Would it matter which surface area of the earth was in line?

I doubt the earthquakes you mentioned are the ones described, because they differ in magnitude and location.

I realize you're not an advocate for this view, but I was simply wondering if you had any additional insight as to why such alignments are purported to be so influential.
Mundus vult decipi
Gerhard:

I think David Martinez, in his two posts below, explains the primary reason quite well.  Of course, humans being so good at rationalization, those that go for the significance of alignments then come up with no end of fanciful "explanations" as to why such should mean anything, given our present knowledge of celestial bodies (as opposed to being simply "lights in the heavens"):  Electrical discharge; some "power" streaming between the Sun and this "unknown" comet that the Earth basses through or "interrupts"; etc. etc. etc.

David
yes david, these are the earthquakes I was talking about.
But no, they don't happen every year...
We are talking about 2 of our top 6 ranking on the richter scale.
Look at my full post below.
cheers
paete

Gerhard, If I may, I would like to answer your question. The alignments arguments is borrowed from astrology, where every problem in one's life is explained by celestial alignments. It saddens me to see so many people getting all riled up over nonsense. They want you to prove them wrong yet they themselves have yet to prove themselves right. I would love to meet some of those people because I have a stockpile of gold in a hidden cave in Mexico that I am selling at 99 cents an ounce.

Thanks for the response.  I've never been able to figure out a logical basis for believing that planetary (or any) alignments would make a bit of difference.  I just recently had someone tell me about how everything in the universe vibrates and that such alignments would have effects on the earth (presumably through some sort of constructive wave interference).  I realize it's nonsense, but I was curious were such ideas might have originated from.

Mundus vult decipi
Not in any sort of astrological way, but planetary alignments do make a pretty large variation in the solar systems barycenter, at times being beyond the suns surface. This effect is one of the methods used to detect extrasolar planets.
Never is a long time.
I once had a professor who attributed our fascination with alignments to another of our fascination: our fascination with rare events. Dr. Woods said that we, as a species, are always drawn to whatever we consider rare; whether it be something like gold or diamonds, or bright objects in the sky. The rarer, he said, the more important it became. So gold became a precious metal, not just because it is prettier than iron and diamonds are more precious than coal even though both are forms of carbon. So, the grouping of bright lights in the sky had to mean something and as soon as a hurricane or earthquake or whatever happened at the same time as the alignment, voila! Amazingly, this is still happening.

sorry, busy, couldnt answer before

To David Hallliday, yes these are the earthquakes I am talking about. Thank you and thumbs up for checking out the link, which Gerhard obviously didn't do.
Science is about curiosity…

So, yes - to gerhard - obviously I did an embarrassing mistake in the hurry : they were not THE 2 hardest ever, but both in the top 6 of the hardest ever, which :
1/ doesn't mean much anyway because we have hardly more than a century of reliable data, which is obviously nothing at the scale of the cosmos
2/ doesn't affect the meaning of my post, though, which you obviously didn't get.

By "hardest ever known by human race", of course, I mean the highest on the richter scale. What else did you think it could be ?? And Obviously, when I say "the third one was New Zealand's 6.3", I am not asserting the third strongest earthquake ever was a 6.3, but that the third ALIGNMENT was the same day as that 6.3, which :
1/ David Halliday reminded correctly was actually a 7.0…I'm wrong again…lol ! what an unreliable person I am !! all this was from memory and I am getting old...
2/ obviously is more likely to be a coincidence.
3/means you really take for granted that I am retarded.

Well the point is you didn't get my message at all. I was not talking about the end of the world, or trying to prove the exactness of the science of alignment… (and I thought I had made this clear from the first line of my original post). I was talking about people like you who, every time they hear a possible explanation that doesn't match the already established theories, start screaming at people how stupid they are. Why do you "realize" some imaginative explanation about electric charges or vibrations in the universe are "obviously non-sense" ? Because it was not in your college books ? Because it's not proven yet by a modern scientist ? YOU are the stupid here. And I keep on saying if you would have lived in 17th century, you would have been accusing Galileo, not defending him. Or you would have told Einstein that he was a freak. (and please don't answer me with a superior grin "Einstein didn't live in 17th century !").

About alignments, the story is complex... I really like the explanation of david martinez, but I must remind you that uncountable old civilizations, such as Mayans, Egyptians, mesopotamians, etc etc did believe in them too... They knew a whole lot about astronomy, from a totally different angle and approach as ours, and we are only starting to suspect the scope of their actual knowledge, that our arrogant progressist convictions had always classified so far as "primitive". Maybe they knew things that we don't know still. And please, gerhard, think twice, or more if you can, before answering this assertion is non-sense...

About the Nasa, I am very surprised having to inform you that (although I repeat I am NOT a basic-minded conspiracist) … they actually changed the model... I looked at the alignments very carefully in august, and the match with the japan earthquake was EXACT (march 11) (I am absolutely sure because I verified 4 times in a row, since I couldn't believe it, and again the next day…). Now it is not anymore (3 days difference), and I hadn't realized until David Halliday made me have a look again... Strange because that event had already taken place, so that it is not a change of a previsional model, but of a once asserted truth... Of course - Rejoice Gerhard ! - I can't prove it, because i didn't take pictures of the screen that day... But I sincerely swear this is true...and intriguing… (funny : if you read my previous post, you will see how I was trying to convince conspiracists that if there really was a NASA conspiracy to hide the truth, they would never leave such an obvious match online...well they didn't... really funny to me, although I know as a scientist, you need the proof to believe me...)

So well - at a 3 days distance now - we have that out of 4 alignments, twice the earth was between elenin and the sun, and twice in a row, we had 2 very strong earthquakes. (And no, David, those don't happen once a year. we are talking about the top 6 of our entire human data)
This FACT is enough, not to believe in alignment, but to titillate my curiosity... (Should I quote Einstein again here? Or just leave you with your illusions regarding your formal education ?)

Next time it will happen will be nov 22 2011. Now, if some great quake happens that day, it should definitely attract your attention, and you can be sure I will mail you (if we're still alive hehe!). But if nothing happens, that doesn't necessarily mean an absence of relation for the 2 previous coincidences… for many obvious reasons : as we don't know what the factor is, it could have changed since (for example it seems that when passing near the sun Elenin actually lost a part of its mass).

My point anyway is not about this prediction being true, but about the lack of humility of modern science. No gerhard, you don't know a shit about planets… I mean ... WE don't know a shit about planets. Just a few tiny observations made in the last few centuries. And they could still surprise you a big deal, no need to study astrophysics to get that point… (Einstein again...)

After what I told you, a real scientist would go and look, out of curiosity, if there happened to be a comet around when the other strongest earthquakes happened. I don't have an easy access to that data, and have other things to do… My fear is precisely that I will have to leave that to you, the brilliant scientists…

signed : An inferior human being (I make mistakes!) daring not to adhere to your point of view, and not convinced at all by your stupid answers about intriguing facts, that you didn't even had the minimum curiosity to address seriously.

Paete:

You claim:
And no, David, those don't happen once a year. we are talking about the top 6 of our entire human data
First off, I said that the two "truly large earthquakes" are "the kind that occur about once a year".  If you'll notice, I even included a link that specifies what I was referring to:  Namely, that earthquakes of magnitude 8 and larger occur, on average, about once a year.  They even provide links to the data that shows this to be the case.*

Second, your assertion that "we are talking about the top 6 of our entire human data" does not hold.  My suspicion is that you are restricting your data to Historic World Earthquakes, which are, as the site notes, only "Selected earthquakes of general historic interest."  Even simply selecting such by magnitude (I chose magnitude 6.0 and greater, but still only "Selected earthquakes of general historic interest."), you see that the two large earthquakes you noted are at fourth and eighth on the list.

Of course, the strongest earthquakes are the ones most likely to be included within a list of "Selected earthquakes of general historic interest."  This, of course, is the reason why such a list includes some very old earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above.

David

*  Using the Centennial catalog, I find 79 earthquakes of magnitude 8 and greater in the years 1900 through 2007.  That's an average of about 0.7 earthquakes of magnitude 8 and greater per year.  So, about 1 per year, rounding to whole numbers, as was done on the linked site.
Paete:

As for NASA "changing the model" for the comet (Elenin), has it not occurred to you that the longer we observe the comet the more precision we will have in estimating the comet's orbit?

The tables below the Elenin orbital plot provide a great deal of information on the orbital parameters used, how many observations were used in determining the parameters, what period of time those observations occurred within, how accurate the parameters are (both within the parameter table and within the covariance matrix [which allows one to see how independent, or dependent the errors are]), etc.

Too bad you didn't copy such information down when you looked at your alignments before.  One may then use such information to ascertain whether the changes were justified, or "malicious" (in some way), and could also be used to reconstruct the former orbital path.

David
Hi david

1- I do understand why a list of "Historical" earthquakes could differ from a list of the "strongest" earthquakes. For example the recent Haiti earthquake may well have been the most dramatic in terms of lost lives, but was actually not that "strong" on the richter scale.
Now, if you go to the right column of your linked site and choose to have them sorted by magnitude, you get here: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/historical_mag.php
As you can see, although they call them "historic", they are clearly sorted in order of magnitude on a richter scale. And that list is similar on many sites. These are the "strongest" earthquakes (magnitude wise) our modern society is supposed to have known. And you can see Haiti is not in it.

2- I think my top 6 claim does hold if we consider the following : as you can see, 2 of your "top 8" (No. 6 and 7) in this historical list are estimates for earthquakes happened before we had reliable seismographs (ca. 1870-80). That is the reason why I said "the top 6" (the site I consulted was about real measured data only, and Chile's was ranked 6th). I shouldn't have said "ever", but I explicitly commented straight after about our available data (only a bit more than a century), so I thought it was clear enough. Sorry if it was not. But even with your arguments, we are still talking about 2 of the strongest earthquakes of modern times.

3- If we believe the table you linked, one earthquake of magnitude 8 OR MORE happens every year... ok ... might be. BUT an earthquake of 8.8 OR MORE does NOT happen every year, sorry to insist. this is all quite clear with just a glance at the same list I just mentioned.

4- thank you for giving me a possible explanation for NASA changes. As you probably noticed (!) I am obviously not an astrophysicist, and wouldn't be able to figure this out without your help (which is probably why I am loosing my time on this forum : to get sensible answers, not scornful invectives...). So, you are telling me that the PAST orbit of the comet is not based on observation ? I thought, quite logically I think, that observations of the progression of the comet was what allow us to derive a predictive model for its future position, but not that the same predictive model would then tell you :" Now, you saw it wrong 5 months ago, it was actually a bit more on the left than what you think"... (Also I remind you that I watched in August a position of the comet in March...what could they know in october that they didnt know in august about its position in march ?) I would appreciate more comments on this...

5-too bad I didn't copy the screen, indeed... although there are quite a few "conspiracy theorists" about this on the net, and I suppose maybe some of these people did copy that data... Why don't we invite them to debate with us ?? Mister cowboy would love it !!... And apparently their "conspiracism" might have led them to the curiosity necessary to save the data that scientists didn't care of... so maybe joining forces, we might find answers !! lol:)
I'll try to see if I can find something, contacting some of those freaks (assuming they already peered out of their anti-armageddon shelter). I would love to learn more about these changes...

A pleasure to talk with you

Paete:

On "1-":  I can only shake my head at your apparent lack of understanding.  Did you not notice that the list you linked to is nothing but the list of Historic World Earthquakes sorted by magnitude?  That the list never claims to be "the 'strongest' earthquakes (magnitude wise) our modern society is supposed to have known"?  After all, don't you notice the same proviso of being "Selected earthquakes of general historic interest"?

You even have the audacity to claim "And you can see Haiti is not in it."  Yet, 2010 01 12 - Haiti region - M 7.0 is right there!  (You have to scroll about halfway down the page, but it is indeed there.)

So, no, you don't have what you claim.

As for "2-":  Since you are not talking about all the available data, but only a subset thereof, you most certainly cannot make the "top 6 claim"—not from that data.  However, I will accept that these two earthquakes are among the strongest earthquakes on record, especially with some appropriate restriction to "modern times", such as 1900+.

As for "3-":  Not only did I provide a link to a table, I provided data backing up the claim within that table.  Now, since the distribution of earthquakes of any given magnitude follows a power law, then most certainly, as one restricts oneself to higher magnitudes one will find an ever decreasing frequency for such occurrences.  All quite well understood by those that have any reasonable understanding of the phenomenon, especially of the statistics of phenomena of anything like earthquakes (anything that follows a power law type distribution).

Since I was the one that first introduced the proviso of "the kind that occur about once a year", it is I that sets the scale for this provision.  Since you had introduced a list of earthquakes that included earthquakes of less than magnitude 8, I felt it necessary to distinguish between the frequency of larger earthquakes (magnitude 8 and higher), vs. more common earthquakes of lesser magnitude.

However, you were then the one that challenged me on that account, apparently without even checking the link I provided right along with that statement.  So I subsequently provided you with more specific information backing that up.

Now, if you want to set the threshold at a higher magnitude, fine.  However, the fact that such a threshold makes the earthquakes that meet that threshold more rare is absolutely well known!  Unfortunately, since quakes of such magnitude are exponentially more rare, and since good instrumental data is only a more recent occurrence, I, at least, cannot provide you with the expected frequency for such occurrences.  (If I knew the probability distribution function, by magnitude, I could, of course, calculate such, but I don't have such handy.)

Now, I imagine you wish to suggest that the rarity of earthquakes of magnitude 8.8 and above makes the observed coincidence all the more "intriguing".  Yes, it does, to an extent.  However, before you get "carried away" with this, I strongly recommend you read about the "Look Elsewhere Effect":  Supernatural Coincidences And The Look-Elsewhere Effect, and Taming The Look-Elsewhere Effect (all by Tommaso Dorigo, particularly focusing on how this effect relates to High Energy Particle Physics).

Additionally, it must be kept in mind that essentially random processes, like earthquakes, will not have anything like a uniform distribution in time.  So, having a "cluster" of occurrences coming close together does not say one whit about whether some "change" is occurring, or whether there is, indeed, some external "influence".

Such can be seen in atomic decays all the time!

As for "4-":  At first, it looked like you were actually gaining some understanding (you started out with "thank you for giving me a possible explanation for NASA changes. As you probably noticed (!) I am obviously not an astrophysicist, and wouldn't be able to figure this out without your help").  However, you then completely shattered that illusion by twisting my words, for you to say
... So, you are telling me that the PAST orbit of the comet is not based on observation ? I thought, quite logically I think, that observations of the progression of the comet was what allow us to derive a predictive model for its future position, but not that the same predictive model would then tell you :' Now, you saw it wrong 5 months ago, it was actually a bit more on the left than what you think' ...
(facepalm)

Have you even looked at the parameters for the present model of the orbit of this comet, taking a close look at the uncertainties, and the correlations of the uncertainties?

I am quite certain "that the PAST orbit of the comet [IS] based on observation".  However, that model most certainly could not have been based upon the volume of data this latest model has been based upon.  (Actually, I must emphasize that I do not know that the orbital model has been changed all that much.  All I have is your word.  Other than that, I do know that the model must have been updated since your earlier visit, since the latest model is dated Sept. 14, 2011.)

Furthermore:
1. The observations are almost certainly dominated by earth based observations, so the data will have far higher uncertainly in the Earth-comet direction than in any orthogonal direction.
2. Since early observations of the comet's path, as seen from the Earth, was dominated by motion along the Earth-comet direction, the orbital parameters will have far greater uncertainly with early observations than with later observations as the comet begins to move more orthogonal to the Earth-comet direction.
3. Besides, what is provided by the Java widget used on the NASA site is not a regurgitation of the observations (in which case we would not be able to look toward the future), but an orbital model based upon a best-fit of the observations at hand.
Besides, have you noticed that the (normalized) Root Mean Square (RMS) error of the fit—even this latest fit—is still far from zero?  It's 0.58415!  Not huge, but not absolutely tiny, either.  So, this means that even this "latest and greatest" fit is not a perfect match to all the available data (2209 observations:  Have you ever taken anywhere near that many careful observations of any one phenomenon in your entire life?).

So, the bottom line is that having the model shift the position of the comet, relative to time, by a couple of days (which is a measure dominated by errors in the Earth-comet direction, since all that is required is a shift along the orbital path, without even shifting the overall path one tiny bit) is absolutely reasonable.

If you want to get a more precise estimate of the position of the comet for any particular day/time, then you can always go back to the original observations near that day/time and perform a reanalysis directed at obtaining that specific information, because the tool you have been using is analyzing the available data (all the available data, at the time of the analysis) to extract the specific parameters for the orbital model being presented.

Perhaps you are simply using the wrong tool for what you wish to accomplish.

As for "5-":  You claim that scientists didn't "care" to keep the parameter "data" (you said others' "'conspiracism' might have led them to the curiosity necessary to save the data that scientists didn't care of").  However, have you even tried to see if any of the internet archives have a snapshot of the former page version?  Have you tried contacting NASA (like the site manager or the webmaster, given at the bottom of the web page) to see if they can provide you with the former parameter values?

Or are you simply fanning "conspiracy", while making a "claim" to not doing so?

David
I was talking about people like you who, every time they hear a possible explanation that doesn't match the already established theories, start screaming at people how stupid they are.
You must be joking.  What do you think science is about?  Science is about taking data and applying it using the established theories and then examining data in case those theories don't work and adjusting them or developing new ones.  It doesn't mean taking every piece of anecdotal nonsense and throwing up our hands at some speculative rubbish.

Unless you have an actual scientific hypothesis about alignments, then they are meaningless.  Unless you have an idea that runs counter to "established theories", then you have nothing.  Like so many, you think that throwing out a few coincidences (if they have even happened as you suggest), and suddenly claiming that you're on to something new that those arrogant scientists simply want to ignore.
Maybe they knew things that we don't know still. And please, gerhard, think twice, or more if you can, before answering this assertion is non-sense...
What of it?  You haven't said anything useful or otherwise.  Despite the reality that we've achieved things in space that no ancient civilization has, you want to give them the credit for possessing the knowledge.  There's no question, that we don't know everything by a long shot, but equally there's no reason to throw out everything we do know for some ancient civilization mumbo-jumbo.  You aren't interested in the knowledge that exists, instead you want to make up your own brand of physics and invent relationships that don't exist.
I mean ... WE don't know a shit about planets. Just a few tiny observations made in the last few centuries. And they could still surprise you a big deal, no need to study astrophysics to get that point.
Of course not .... let's ask the Mayans.  That seems to be your only message, is that you have some axe to grind with modern society and scientists, but you have absolutely no questioning about the knowledge that you presume ancient civilizations had.
An inferior human being (I make mistakes!) daring not to adhere to your point of view, and not convinced at all by your stupid answers about intriguing facts, that you didn't even had the minimum curiosity to address seriously.
Yes, "intriguing facts" that simply don't exist and that you now claim have been changed.  Of course, it doesn't occur to you that the scientists you are so busy complaining about, live on the same planet as you and are subject to the same risks as you.  No, it's much easier to believe that scientists would be willing to risk their own lives on catastrophic events occurring and keep it a secret rather than let you know (although they are obviously foolish enough to forget to change their data before posting it on the web for you to have discovered their error).

I also love the way you invoke the "daring not to adhere to your point of view" as if it is some courageous act on the part of a rebel scientific investigator.  Once again, science is about evidence and data.  The mere fact that you would invoke such a ridiculous statement indicates how little you understand.  If you want to be a rebel, then don't be lazy about the data and the hypothesis.  Offer a challenge, and don't get caught in silly mistakes.  Those aren't excuses, they represent carelessness and laziness.  No one has a problem listening to real ideas and alternative viewpoints, provided they don't want to re-invent all of science to make their point.  However, if you can't be bothered to get it right, then why should anyone be remotely interested in following it up for you?

You want to invoke scientific curiosity as a rationalization for why your pet ideas should be examined, but scientific curiosity requires real events and real phenomenon;  not a bunch of made up data, and innuendo that have no basis in reality.
Mundus vult decipi
Lots of people that think they know math and science on this page...

it seems like this guy has just sunk Gerhard's obnoxious little ass. a moment of glory for all men of reason LOL

With your obvious lack of basic reading comprehension, I guess I can also conclude that you aren't one of the "men of reason" that you're worshiping.
Mundus vult decipi
i initially enjoyed this thread, and this site. as time has gone by, its got nastier and nastier. obnoxiously so.

thanks, paete, for your nice comments (the ones that mysteriously vanished after a day or so).

gerhard, i hope that one day you wake up to your astonishingly religious viewpoint. when the paradigms shift, i'll be laughing. please remember that the theories are only theories. to exclude consideration of data because it doesn't fit is both unscientific and pretty dumb.

i'm unsubscribing now, since
a) i never got verified on this site, so i guess my kind of approach to science is unwanted
b) elenin really did go out with a whimper, although the images of it being the by the cme were quite something. (during the soho 'eclipse season')
c) i'm over being notified that some bigoted troll is abusing people again.

While it doesn't really matter if you read this or not, I find it surprising that you consider that everyone that disagrees with you and your respective mantras is somehow a troll or abusive.  The truth is that crackpots never seem to consider civility when they come onto a site and make far-ranging proclamations by declaring that everyone that adheres to accepted scientific viewpoints is either an idiot or a "religious zealot".  Mainstream science is considered the "enemy" and only "free-thinkers" should be considered because after all they possess the sacred "open mind".

The truth is that you HAVE NO DATA.  You have nothing but speculative nonsense that is built on little more than innuendo and a flagrant desire to continue to feed into the unwarranted fears and concerns of people that are uninformed.  This further encourages people to go even farther out on their respective limbs so that soon they are embracing superstition rather than reason.  However, that's always the intent, isn't it.  After all, what fun is it to recognize that things are rarely as bad as the doomsayers like to pretend, nor are they ever as good as the Pollyanna's want to suggest.

So, by all means, continue to level your praise on individuals that have perpetually refused to understand and continue to voice their misunderstandings.  That will certainly advance science, because it finally opens the doors for anyone with an idle speculation to expect to be treated with the same legitimacy as those that have actually studied a subject and actually examined the data.

Anyone that thinks that science and debate aren't full contact sports is delusional.  If you haven't got an argument, then by all means, you can slink away into the night and you certainly won't be missed, because there will be a dozen others to carry the banner of misinformation and nonsense.  There seems to be no shortage of people that couldn't be bothered to learn science, but now expect to lecture on it and be considered to possess legitimate "theories".

BTW ... your statement about "theories are only theories" strongly suggests that you were disingenuous if not fanciful in describing yourself as a "scientist".  Any scientist would know better than to make such a ridiculous statement.
Mundus vult decipi