"This time we're shooting through a brick!"

Larry Nodulman (during a discussion on the reconstruction of electrons in the CDF II detector, just refurbished with a new set of silicon microstrip layers (SVX'), more powerful and capable of identifying the impact parameter of charged tracks with a dozen micron accuracy, but also heavier and bulkier than its predecessor, and thus providing more material for multiple scattering of particles.)

A 1.1 metric Ton satellite will re-enter the earth's atmosphere in the next 48 hours, fragmenting into smaller pieces as it falls. The exact location of the fall is unknown, so you better watch out... Or not.

I was discussing this event with my daughter this morning, and it ended up being an instructive discussion on random events of very low probability. If we are totally oblivious of the satellite orbit, and forget different likelihood of earth surface points for the re-entry (the very north and south latitude are much less likely), we can try and compute how likely it is that one of, say, 50 large fragments of the satellite will end up falling within a 100 m^2 area around us -which would be frightening enough.

"In God we trust, all others bring data"

William Edwards Deming