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    How Much Initiative Should People Who Care About The Climate Take?
    By Hank Campbell | October 19th 2012 03:32 PM | 12 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
    An iron dumping experiment was recently conducted by an environmentally concerned group who believe controlled geo-engineering may be the solution to impending science issues. It was conducted without involvement from the scientific community and without proper governance.

    I am talking about activist Russ George, the businessman who dumped iron dust off the coast of Canada in July, right?  No, I am talking about the LOHAFEX expedition in 2009, which had 50 scientists and 20 tons of iron sulphate, the idea being to create an algal bloom and suck up some evil carbon. The difference between the two events is negligible but George has gotten a lot more vitriol and condemnation, despite it being no more unscientific, irresponsible or outside international agreements than when Germany did it.

    Scientists are rightfully worried that environmental activists are going to take the world's ecology into their own hands.  But why should the public not consider science a world view, when scientists perpetuate that notion? Well-meaning activist scientists in the LOHAFEX group found a loophole in international law and disregarded the rules of 191 signators to the United Nation's Convention on Biological Diversity that put a moratorium on widespread experimentation with the ocean - and yet Germany, one of the signatories, paid for the experiment. George contravened the same law.

    Yet what happened to the LOHAFEX project participants?  Nothing, it was retroactively sanctioned.  A New York Times piece by Henry Fountain, even carried a quote from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven, Germany, which provided the ship and funding and the chief scientist for LOHAFEX.  Victor Smetacek was quoted as saying, "This kind of behavior is disastrous."

    Well, that kind of statement is hypocritical. 

    An alarming number of people who insist we should accept the consensus on climate change, and say only politics is preventing action, outright deny the consensus on food science and nuclear power. And they do it with a straight face. How can we expect the public to look at science as a neutral force for the public good rather than a cultural world view when political activist corporations, including those with science in their names, dismiss scientists as being irresponsible and wrong - and very few in science media can find any fault in them?   Scientists who say uncontrolled experiments are a bad idea should also not be in the environment doing them.

    Comments

    The difference is that LOHAFEX has 50 scientists and they did research - they did it to progress the science. Mr. George had no science support and it is unlikely that they obtained any meaningful data - he did it to get rich from carbon credits.

    Hank
    Well, some people say Al Gore is only caring about the environment to get rich on carbon credits too - but we don't know their motivations, in either case, so I think it is unfair to slur them.

    In both cases it was an untested, irresponsible hypothesis being done in real time by groups who used loopholes to rationalize why what they were doing was legal.  The difference in the reaction is notable. All LOHAFEX had to do was get the German Minister who knew nothing about it and did not approve it to quietly approve it after the controversy died down and now it gets to be the 'last sanctioned experiment' even though it was not sanctioned.  The other difference may be in the number of scientists present.  George has refused to name the scientists involved with him whereas when Polarstern took off from S. Africa it was already controversial because it had so many people on board so their names were known. Oddly, Germany pretended not to know it was even happening, just like NOAA says they did not know why their equipment was being used.

    I guess you don't see the point that neither of these experiments were ethical or legal, since you contend those other scientists broke the law and defied every other scientist on the planet to "progress the science" that everyone else said would not work and was dangerous even in 2009.
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    If it was done in contravention to international treaties I don't care who does it it should be condemned. But, it's far more morally corrupt to do something just to make a fast buck than to do it because you're trying to learn something.

    Thor Russell
    Who to blame is not important, knowing what different geo-engineering options do is far more so.
    As far as I am aware, the iron experiment cannot remove the massive amount of CO2 needed to make much of a difference. As an experiment however its worth knowing what it will do. The whole "geo-engineering" word is so inconsistent. Overfishing will probably have a greater, longer lasting effect than a one-off dump of iron, yet that is obviously not called geo-engineering. Used in moderation in special circumstances it could help with a goal of getting more from the sea with less consequences. We don't have a clue yet whether that is actually the case yet.


    The sulfate option is much more important and can have a sizeable (though unknown) effect on the planet for an affordable price. If things get bad, you can pretty much guarantee it will get used. Even though it is called geo-engineering an experiment with this is much safer than the status quo of increasing CO2. The results are immediate and don't linger. However we don't know fully what they are. In order to decrease temperature, you also likely reduce rainfall and change where it falls, which could be very bad. I think the major concern with sulphate is not that it won't work, but that it will help slightly on average, but harm one country while helping another. That is a recipe for conflict, hence it is essential to know now what will happen so preparations can be made.


    If possible, removing the CO2 is obviously the safest and most effective geo-engineering option, e.g. 


    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/exclusive-pioneering-scientists-turn-fresh-air-into-petrol-in-massive-boost-in-fight-against-energy-crisis-8217382.html
    Thor Russell
    While I agree with much of what you say, Thor, I do have a few different takes on this affair.

    Ideas then theory and math models followed by experiment are fundamental to our understanding of any scientific endeavor. The problem I see here is the use of the open ocean as the lab in which the experiment was conducted. What precautions were taken to contain the reaction if it were to go wrong?

    Our oceans are a huge energy sink. There have been sporadic studies of the effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) on global climate. Insignificant seeming changes in the SST in one region can have far-reaching consequences on landmasses great distances away. I’m decidedly not in favor of an uncontrolled experiment, which has the potential to increase the rate of climate change in my neck of the woods.

    Your statements in the sulfate solution paragraph mirror much of my concern. We simply don’t know enough about this to be doing radical things that could impact our global population negatively. A minor, and important only to me, note: I’m not convinced that CO2 is the culprit. A chief suspect, certainly, but I haven’t seen convincing arguments that the increase in CO2 is the cause instead of one result of *whatever* the driver is.

    Thor Russell
    I don't really see how the business about CO2 is minor. If you do then that would change everything for me. I wouldn't support geoengineering in that case. Arguing about contributions to warming is perhaps one thing, but I really don't see how you can think the CO2 increase is not obviously the result of our doing.
    That part of the issue is proven to a very high level. If you add up the CO2 that we know for certain we have put in the atmosphere, it is enough to cause the increase in atmospheric concentration. We have a good general idea of the CO2 we have put in because records of fossil fuels sold during the last 100 years. You can do the maths yourself for the last year, comparing CO2 increase to amount emitted. We also see acidification of the top level of the ocean but not the bottom which is what you would expect from it adjusting to the new equilibrium in the air concentration. We can also do radioactive isotopic analysis on the atmospheric CO2 concentration and see that it is not coming from the current biosphere. Finally we now have satellites that can see in detail the sources of CO2 all over the planet, and it is like a map of developed civilization. If there was another source we would see it clear as day. I don't know what more you could ask for. I challenge you to suggest a remotely possible and logical way that the CO2 we have emitted has not caused an increase. Think carefully about this and you will realise how hard it is.
    Thor Russell
    Sorry Thor. Effective communication is difficult even in face-to-face situations. It is fraught with problems at a distance and is compounded by words written in cyber ink.

    It was irresponsible of me to include that last part in my comment. Statements like that are so easily misinterpreted, misread, and misunderstood, without a lot more context. Statements similar to mine have started many flame wars and that was never my intention. Therefore, I apologize for writing that.

    I certainly agree that humans burning fossil fuels have increased the CO2 load in our atmosphere. In addition, the ~7 billions of us are outgassing tons of CO2 every hour. I believe that any reasonable person would reach the same conclusion; humans have definitely affected the atmosphere by causing an addition in CO2.

    Now, here’s the part where I’m uncertain: Have humans caused the apparent increase in global temperatures? Is the human caused increase in CO2 the driver in our current climate change? I don’t know and I’m not sure anyone else actually knows the answer to those questions.

    There is abundant geological evidence that our climate has changed dramatically in the past. We can’t be sure of the driver(s) in those cases either. In many of the epochs where temperatures took aggressive swings, either humans comprised a very, very, small percentage of our current population (and they certainly weren’t burning fossil fuels) or they were not even around yet. It is even possible that increases (and decreases) in the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 were responsible for those climate changes. We simply don’t know.

    The difficulties that I have, believing one argument about the cause of climate change over any other argument, are directly related to the large set of variables that exist. I’m sure you are aware of them all, so I don’t need to repeat them here.

    Thor Russell
    OK that clears things up a bit. A primary reason I believe that GHG are responsible for the increase is because it is the simplest explanation. The extra GHG we have added traps about an extra 2 W/m^2 of heat. The sun varies by about 0.1% in the average 11 year cycle which is ~0.3 W/m^2. So the additional GHG add significantly more energy than the solar variation. Now we have seen the correlation between sun and temp break recently, sometime around the 70's. The sun is if anything colder now than then, yet temps have been going upwards. GHG should cause such an increase in temp, and we see it. For another explanation to be more likely, you need to explain BOTH why GHG don't cause the expected temp rise, and what is causing it. As far as I am aware, we know of no reason why GHG shouldn't cause it, and other explanations for warming such as cosmic rays fail because their sign is wrong. e.g less cosmic rays could hypothetically cause warming (a stretch with many unproven links), but we aren't having less of them as far as I know. Sure this isn't proof by any means, but it puts the chances that GHG are a major cause much over 50% for me.
    Its interesting about past climate changes, because I would take the opposite position. If climate had not changed in the past I would assume that there is some very strong (if unknown) mechanism to counteract changes whatever the cause, and would perhaps argue that whatever changes we are causing will be reversed/slowed by it. A chaotic sensitive climate should be equally sensitive to changes whatever the cause, hence what we do could make a big difference.

    I think the whole humans are involved thing affects peoples thinking quite a bit. Lets consider the hypothetical situation where CO2 that has been trapped underground for millions of years is being released into the atmosphere, but is actually coming from a massive volcano rather than us. In that case I really expect that there would be little problem with people believing the CO2/volcano is causing the warming, even though its the same gas that has been trapped underground out of the normal ecosystem for millions of years. Some people even state this explicitly and start with a 95% prior against the CO2 being the cause purely because we did it.

    I would like to conduct a survey 
    1. Ask people "a gas known to trap heat has been underground for millions of years. Lately enough of it has been released by a natural process to raise the concentration in the atmosphere higher than it has been in over 600,000 years. Do you expect it to heat up the planet?"
    2. "Humans have released enough CO2 from burning fossil fuels to raise the concentration in the atmosphere higher than it has been in over 600,000 years. It is known that CO2 traps heat, do you expect our action to heat up the planet?"

    I bet you would get quite different answers.
    Thor Russell
    Ah. Now you've switched from CO2 to GHG. That's fine by me. Water vapor is on my list of suspects too. The part played by Methane is less clear to me, but I've read that it is also a major player.

    Curious about where you came up with the figure of 600,000 years.

    Thor Russell
    Well by GHG I meant GHG emitted by humans, and CO2 is the majority of that. Yes methane also traps heat and we have increased that also. Same calculation and doesn't change the logic at all. 

    Sounds like you don't agree with water vapor being a feedback rather than a cause. Have you looked into this, there is also much on the net, don't you agree with it. If you accept that global water vapor concentration increases with temperature, then you have to accept that a small temperature change will cause an increase in vapor, and a further increase in temp. It will amplify existing changes whatever the cause. Anyway, even ignoring this, if you say vapor is the cause, then you still have to explain what caused vapor to rise, and ALSO explain why our GHG (CO2/methane etc) did not cause a temp rise.

    Historical CO2 records are all over the internet, this goes back 400,000, some apparently go back 800,000.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth's_atmosphere

    Thor Russell
    It's obvious that you are much better at answering the questions than I am in posing them.

    Well the water vapor business is interesting. It is supposed to be a zero sum game and it probably is. I'm curious about the increased area, and strength, of some of the Pacific where the El Nino starts. It is said that this increase in the SST produces much more than normal water vapor, that it causes shifts in the wind steering currents, and has effects on the normal ocean currents. Part of the problem seems to be the shifting of the rainfall patterns from over land masses to over the ocean itself.

    I'll continue to watch your posts for more information.

    Thanks.

    Thor Russell
    Thanks, glad to be of help, its pretty rare in climate related discussions! Not sure what you mean by zero sum game for water.  El Nino etc is where it starts to get complicated, and no-one has the answers anymore. Such patterns can definitely increase water/cloud cover etc, but I am not sure they can make a permanent shift by themselves. They certainly make it difficult to tease out cause and effect in the short term. Its the long term picture I have by far the most confidence in. 
    I am not even convinced we could know the short term better. The polar ice is melting faster than most  alarmists predicted, however James Hansen's prediction was way off, predicting a lot more warming than has happened, its not like any group has all the answers. To me predicting the details of how a chaotic system will react to a sudden change is like trying to predict how many pieces a cars headlight will break into when it hits a solid wall a speed. You can be absolutely certain it will break, but have no idea what the pieces will look like.

    Thor Russell