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    Will China overtake the US in science leadership?
    By Hank Campbell | November 1st 2010 11:21 AM | 17 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
    About Hank

    I'm the founder of Science 2.0® and co-author of "Science Left Behind".

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    There are times when being a communist dictatorship has its advantages.  Without having to worry about jobs or elections, you can enact a plan and stick to it until it works and, if a million or so peasants get displaced to build a dam, they don't vote anyway.

    China recently announced the world’s fastest supercomputer, bullet train and completion of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam.  In addition, they mapped out plans for a new space station and satellites for Mars. 

    What has the US done?  Scrapped plans to Mars and replaced it with a visit to an asteroid.    And while China and India are putting out overwhelming numbers of scientists and engineers, the 2007 fastest-growing college majors in America were parks, recreation, leisure, and fitness studies according to the U.S. Department of Education.

    Numbers don't tell the whole tale, of course.   Despite having 5% of the world population the US still puts out 32% of the science - and insuring leadership in the future isn't something that can be solved by throwing more money at STEM outreach programs.   The issue remains, as I have discussed before, protectionist visa schemes that were implemented in the 1990s to prop up American salaries - instead of doing that, it sent engineering jobs overseas and, because student visas are easy to get but work visas are not, we train scientists and engineers here and then force them to go back home and become competitors.

    The solution to continued science and technology leadership is not turning more Americans into scientists and engineers, but rather turning more scientists and engineers into Americans.

    Comments

    mgua
    Having a world with more science savy people is not bad, whatever the nationality of the scientists is.

    So the problem are not the armies of chinese and indian scientists, but the weak reaction of the western world institutions.

    Since western countries can not win on quantity, they have to develop more quality, and more scientific excellence.
    We must focus in promoting scientific processes, broad culture and critical minds.
    We must teach better, and definitely work better.
    We must streamline our processes, not tangle them in bureaucracy.
    We must promote entrepeneurship, which is the real engine of development.
    We must develop more international collaborations among western world countries.
    We must reduce our wastes and improve our efficiency.

    There is a lot to do
    and we can do it.

    Marco Guardigli

    Hank
    We seem to have more scientists than jobs for them but I certainly agree that science savvy people, whether or not they are occupied as scientists, are good.   The tough task is how to get more quality to offset literal armies of scientists and engineers.

    Scientists already feel like they work hard for little money so how do we optimize that even more?  There is no way to streamline bureaucracy and still have the bulk of US science funding determined by politicians but the culture in science today seems loathe to go back to the corporate funding model that worked well until the 1970s, which means entrepreneurship is a no-go.    Giving someone taxpayer money and then letting them keep the results is going to get taxpayer funding pulled.
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    mgua
    I understand your point, and I feel and share your pain.
    Being a father I am worried for the future of my kids. Should I force them to learn mandarin?

    But we need to react, finding a way out of these troubles. Blaming the situation or the adverse fate does not help, as well as waiting for effective help from politicians, who are dealing with a crisis which is encompassing all the economic sectors and not only research and academy.

    Startup culture can help. Entrepeneurs can offer some opportunities in applied research, expecially in the fields where faster returns seem available.

    Being an entrepeneur in different fields, I can tell you that the most difficult task is identifying the right people. Most young graduates are simply not willing to work enough hard, and to dedicate with real passion to a focused target.
    This is in my opinion the worst problem we have (and I can speak not only for my country, but for several european countries in which I have business).

    We need to build true passion.
    We can not expect inspiration or example from our current political class, whatever the party.
    More TED?


    @mgua


    Gerhard Adam
    ...protectionist visa schemes that were implemented in the 1990s to prop up American salaries - instead of doing that, it sent engineering jobs overseas...
    I'm not sure how this translates into anything except a race to the bottom.  What difference does it make if visas are granted to drive down salaries or the jobs are exported to countries where salaries are lower?

    In the end, it comes down to the fact that a worker is expected to compete with other workers worldwide, in countries with a cost-of-living that is a fraction of this country, but companies can maintain ever increasing profits while decimating the societies they are headquartered in.

    While I realize that simplistic protectionist policies are not the solution, I'm not sure that "globalization" provides any benefit beyond those that are simply seeking higher margins.  It would appear that now that American's are tapped out on the debt they can carry, our industries have lost interest in the American consumer and are looking for greener pastures elsewhere.  I fail to see how this can help benefit any society in which such behavior persists.
    vongehr
    "solution to continued science and technology leadership is not turning more Americans into scientists and engineers, but rather turning more scientists and engineers into Americans."

    Yeah - great solution, save money on educating your own people in order to buy those educated in countries with science education to speak of. Do you think this is a valuable long term strategy to good leadership desirable for the future of the world? You may completely miss why China is going to be the leader. That every child gets science education (as far as possible given the circumstances of the still poor, mostly rural country) instead of the bible is a big factor of why China cannot (and should not!) be stopped anymore. Go China!
    Hank
    Yeah - great solution, save money on educating your own people in order to buy those educated in countries with science education to speak of.
    I never said that.   On the contrary, we spend a great deal of time and money educating outstanding people from other countries and then making it impossible for them to get work visas, so they return home.    Obviously those people would not be here at all if this weren't still the best place to get an education, my priority would simply be to make it easier to keep them here.
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    vongehr
    Well, "not turning more Americans into scientists and engineers" means not to educate your own people - I think you said that. BTW: I am exactly one of those who came to the US for graduate education and then went away. I did certainly not go to sunny LA because "it is the best place to get an education" - they just paid more than others (TA/RA money) - all money that is missing from your kid's class room! Europeans for example mostly also do not go away again because of visa troubles but because the cultural life in the US is so poor. We yearn to get back to civilization! You indulge a naive "we are the best" pride that is so very annoying about Americans. You are not the best, you are in too many respects the worst.
    Hank
    I am not anything - I am neither in science nor education.   Perhaps you are having a bad day so you just feel like throwing personal insults at me, that is your prerogative, but it won't change actual facts.   The facts are the US does have more science output with a lower population than China and more than all of the EU countries combined.   The facts are also that many PhDs who would like to stay in the US cannot because of onerous visa policies that are ill-conceived protectionism that have failed and should be abolished.   

    Certainly there are issues with education in the US (your partisan lovefest for European education is based on nothing except 'pride that is so very annoying about' Europeans so I will let it go) but the issues in education will not be solved by throwing more money at the problems, nor by turning doctors or teachers into scientists instead of allowing them to do what they have chosen to do.
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    vongehr
    Sorry - nothing was intended to be a personal attack - maybe just a little pointed in order to counteract the (in my opinion) rather anti-Chinese pro-US overall flavor of your piece. Yes you are right, the US still has the greatest output. I worked at the USC physics department, for example the string theory group (I remember one prof from Australia, one from GB, a Turkish, Norway, Poland, ... same for the graduate students - not a single US educated guy there as long as I was present!). If you look at an equivalent in China, you will see Chinese with the one or the other very rare foreigner like me in between. I am not sure that on this basis the US is the first one in science even as we speak, let alone the future. Go China! :)
    mgua
    Sascha,

    Hank's point is: "US needs to find a way out of the current situation, and work visa processes are inadequate. US is gradually losing its science primate."

    You studied in the US, so you are much more qualified than me in describing the situation, identifying its defects, and eventual solutions.

    Which is, in your opinion, a list of activities that US governament and academic institutions shoud perform, in order to improve?

    I can understand your enthusiasm about China, but this country has a long way to go in many social aspects, and can not be unconditionally assumed as a model.

    thank you

    m
    vongehr
    Dear Marco, I do get very well what Hank is trying to say, but what he implies, especially considering the sentence that I quoted (!) and if you are interested in furthering science in a globalized society rather than just using it to make your own country the biggest bully around, ... think about it.
    I just posted on what I wanted to say here in more detail, because it is an interesting topic by itself. (Moreover, but this is not my main point, why start a post about China and US science with an unrelated problem about farmers in China - why not talk about equally unrelated stuff like the incredible number of people incarcerated in the US or whatever? This piece is biased, not just anti-China, but moreover in an obnoxious US centric way, which I also explained further in the linked post.)
    Stellare
    After visiting China and working with Chinese scientists and governmental organizations, it is clear to me that China is on its way to becoming a leading nation, Surpassing USA is just a matter of time.

    My general impression is that we in the West under estimate both their (China) current knowledge, their will and ability to develop.

    I appreciate both the US and China for many different reasons. Unfortunately, seen from the outside, the US seem to be on a downward spiral in terms of science and even social development, whereas in China everything points upwards.
    Bente Lilja Bye is the author of Lilja - A bouquet of stories about the Earth
    China is definitely not a "communist dictatorship", it is an authoritarian hybrid of socialism/capitalism. Some Americans are doing their country an injustice by being ignorant of foreign countries.

    Hank
    They call themselves communist so my description is apt there and unless a fair election can be held, it is a dictatorship.   It is not injustice to call a spade a spade, it is clarity.  If the Chinese don't like it, they should demand elections.
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    Stellare
    A Chinaman is a businessman. This communist stuff is just a cover up. ;-)

    I can give a fresh report from the communist dictatorship next month by the way; I am going to China very soon. :-)
    Bente Lilja Bye is the author of Lilja - A bouquet of stories about the Earth
    Hank
    I've been plenty.  I love China.   But I love the mid-east and the people there when I visit also.   Pretending they are not dictatorships would be silly, though, so I am unsure what the anonymous commenter's objection was to an economic-political fact.
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    Stellare
    Yes, even the Chinese themselves acknowledge this fact that China is a communist dictatorship. I have no idea why one would deny this.

    Unfortunately, the middle-east is not accessible for me. They tend to dislike women there... I know some wonderful people from the region though. It would be fantastic to go there and check out their amazing history. In particular their scientific history is impressive.
    Bente Lilja Bye is the author of Lilja - A bouquet of stories about the Earth