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    Global Negative Temperature imbalance starting in the early 80's?
    By Mi Cro | July 26th 2011 04:04 PM | 2 comments | Print | E-mail | Track Comments
    About Mi

    Integrated Circuit Failure analysis. Published article on using Liquid Crystals on integrated circuits as a trouble shooting aid. 14 years as a Electronic...

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    The Integrated Surface Database http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/isd/index.php  is a joint project of the National Climatic Data Center, the Navy, and the Air Force, and is a combination of over 100 data sources http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/isosmtg/lott-isos-ncdc-isd.ppt .

    In the first blog on this data
    http://www.science20.com/virtual_worlds/blog/global_annual_daily_temperatures_19292010-81063
    I included a graph that starting in the early 80's has a -10F imbalance, where 10 degrees more heat is lost over night than we received during the previous day. It's easy to wonder how that is even possible, and nothing more than a processing artifact. Yet, prior to 1982, there's a nice randomness in the data, No signs of any processing artifacts. Maybe a sampling size issue? Except the number of active sites went way up in 1973-1974, 10 years earlier.

    To help verify this, I decided to review the data on a monthly basis, that way I should be able to detect seasonal changes. But to get the seasons, I had to split the averages up based on location. So I selected 23 degrees Latitude as my dividing line, 23N, 23S, and between 23N/S as the tropics.

    This shows the Seasonal variation quite well, and gives some validation that this idea of measuring the imbalance gives meaningful answers.Unfortunately, it doesn't come with a Theory of Operation.To see if the imbalance was due to measurement/equipment issues, I split both the yearly average and the yearly daily imbalance by Latitude (N,S,T)

    Here's Todays and Tomorrows Annual low temp averages for N,S,T where you can see different trends based on Lat.


    It's interesting to note that NH temps start rising in the 70's, yet Tropic temps hold flat, and SH temps decline.


    Then the NST daily imbalance. Where you can see N/S Hemisphere temps both show the negative imbalance in the early 80's, and the Tropics go negative in ~76.


    Something happened to the ISD data in the early 80's, and it looks like it's a real effect in the data.

    Comments

    vongehr
    Deserts are really cold, often below freezing during the night. So, if some place turns into a desert for example (not trying to fearmonger about climate change, just an example!), it does get on average warmer while the mornings get colder. The heat (=energy) cannot be assumed proportional to temperature (think low heat capacity above a dry desert), so you cannot derive an energy imbalance out of these observed morning/maximum temperature records.
    And this is the last I will say about climate change or vaccines. ;-)
    MikeCrow
    I also came up with this possibility:
    Say the sensor housing is exposed to direct sunlight, and it reads a fraction of a degree warmer because of that during the day, then during the night that extra heat goes away and you then have an imbalance. But that seems to me to require a lot of systems effected by this, all over the world, or a common design, etc. Plus it seems to just appear in the data. Now, maybe they started to blend in some other data source, and their procedure has some flaw, although it does show up in the tropical data  before the other areas. Or they replaced all the station with a new common design, starting with the tropics first, etc,etc.

    And I agree that this doesn't really give specific energy levels, but it does return a sort of accumulated energy measurement. And since all of the measurements are referential, the effects of local heat capacity should cancel out at any individual station. So the desert should warm up faster(get hotter, or both), just as it cools faster.

    Actually if I could figure out which stations are deserts, I'd spend some time looking at their data. I think they're the best place to directly measure the impact of CO2 on radiative cooling, someplace with as little humidity as possible.
    Never is a long time.