For most of human history, technology changed very little during a person’s lifetime. Certainty, their life was not constant with the hard agricultural life being interrupted by war, disease, and famine. However, very few new technologies would come into their life. In contrast, my grandparents saw tremendous change throughout the 20th century as planes, cars, electricity, radio, and computers enter during their lives. Politically, the U.S. grew from a minor player to a world leader. Socially, many rights were obtained. In my life, I have also experienced rapid change, but it seems a bit different than my grandparents’.

For example, the biggest change is the way computers have grown to dominate many products and processes. But why do I have a computer now? I had gotten equivalent services from the community before- newspapers, local stores, libraries, paper forms, the bank teller, playing cards, board games, slide rules, cars that could be mechanically troubleshot, TV on three network stations. While there does not seem to be any major new services offered by the computer, there seems to be quantitative differences- faster, cheaper, more options and with easier access.

This quantitative change seems to be a contrast to the many qualitative changes that my grandparents saw living through most of the 20th century. Transportation changed from horses to cars with the concept of flying not only discovered, developed and available for his use but also continuing to space flight to the moon for the country. Communications changed from the telephone and newspaper to include the fire side chats of FDR, the broadcasts at the movie theater of WWII news, and television with both news and entertainment. Science changed from the theory of evolution and classical physics of Newton to DNA and quantum mechanics. While these science advances did not impact my grandfather much- he had an 8th grade education and worked for 60 years in a furniture factory, it impacted his family through new opportunities.

However, the more recent quantitative aspects of change have significantly impacted and enhanced my life. My career in scientific and environmental information systems would not have been there, entertainment through virtual reality video games with network and artificial intelligent opponents still amazes me. The amount of information (and misinformation) that is so easily accessible on the Internet has led me to new areas of research that I never would have been able to develop or feel comfortable. Then there is the energy efficiency of the house, appliances, and car that are controlled by smaller computers. Flying on a plane is much more convenient (except for the security) when I don’t have to worry about having the paper ticket or having enough money (or with a credit card any money at all). And so the reason of why I have computers is the cumulative quantitative changes of speed, cost, accessibility, and efficiency.

Can we make sense of this rapid change? Are there patterns to discover? One familiar pattern is the Moore’s law concerning the rapid increase in computer capability. Some, such as Ray Kurzweil, have looked at the extension of this pattern and predict that soon change will be even faster. However, the social responses to this technology are a bit slower, just look at the government and laws. Even in business, the integration of information technology is a bit of a financial experiment. Exactly when will Windows finally settle down so we can spend our time doing things instead of learning where the buttons are in the latest version? Will the network ever be safe?

But there is another perspective that learning usually takes place very slowly at first as the framework is being discovered, then increases once the definitions and concepts are stable, and then slows again as some of the finer points and uncertain areas are handled. This describes an S-curve of learning – slow at the start and at the end, but fastest in the middle. This curve also applies not just to a personal learning but also learning within a community such as scientists exploring new fields and perhaps societies discovering new ways to organize.

Attempting to generalize this further, about 10 years ago Theodore Modis made a list of the important events not only in human history discovery but also in human evolution, and biological evolution. The increasing rate of important events displayed a distinct mathematical pattern. However, it was unclear whether the last few points indicated a continuing trend to a singularity like Kurzweil predicted, or a learning curve. This left many questions to explore. What is driving this increase rate? Is it just the more we know the quicker things can be discovered? And where is the limit to this? And when will it occur?

So how does this relate to energy? It has been suggested that one of the main drivers towards more complex organization through evolution of life, minds, and history, is the ability to handle larger energy flows. While useful energy flows require fuels such as food, wood, and oil, their consumption also leads to environmental wastes such as sewage, soot, and carbon dioxide.

This blog will be about some the energy aspects that I and others are exploring concerning this connection between energy, the environment, technological capabilities in history, the present, and future.