Arctic Ice May 2011

The great thing about the scientific method is that we can figure out what will happen if we do something before we do it.  Scientists figured out long ago that burning fossil fuels and putting CO2 into the atmosphere at a great rate would affect the planet's climate systems.  Which it has.  One of the predictions about the effect of dumping CO2 into the atmosphere was that the Arctic would be affected most.  Which it has been.  Scientists predicted an Arctic acceleration or amplification: a process where positive feedbacks become ever stronger with ever less Arctic ice.  Ice loss is accelerating.

The Oldest Arctic Ice


The oldest non-glacial ice in the northern hemisphere is a small remnant of the former Ellesmere Ice Shelf which began  forming about 5500 years ago.  That remnant is breaking up.  Where the ice shelf has vanished the fjords are free of perennial ice for the first time in 3000 to 5500 years.  It seems likely that very soon the oldest non-glacial ice will be a mere 5 years old, or less.

Arctic Ice April 2011


The Nares ice bridge is still blocking the strait.  My forecast of breakup on April 07 ± 3 days was wrong.  A forecast is only as good as the assumptions it is based on.  My forecast was based on valid assumptions, but I missed something vital: the 'plug' in the ice bridge isn't just consolidated ice: it is homogenous ice.  It is likely also that it is less salty than ordinary first year sea ice.  That would mean that the ice bridge is much stronger than average.

A Brief History Of Climate Science

"One of the lesser-known branches of climatology is historical climatology, the study of past climates from historical records of instrumental observations and weather descriptions, ..."
Vicky Slonosky

Sahara Dust In European Skies

The skies over southern England were hazy on Friday April 08 2011.  In the evening the usual colors of sunset were absent.  A muddy grey-brown haze could be seen along the horizon.  That haze was caused by dust from the Sahara.


Dust from Sahara over Biscay, the English Channel and Ireland


Dust cloud from Sahara off the coast of Portugal