Air India Flight 171 - Flawed EE Bay Water Ingress Theory

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Patrick Lockerby

Retired engineer, 79 years young. Computer builder and programmer. Linguist specialising in technical translation. Interested in every human endeavour except the scrooge theory of accountancy. Interested... Read More »

A Critique Of A Multiply-Published Article On Ice Sheet Collapse

Mar 18 2010 | comment(s)

A Critique Of A Multiply-Published Article On Ice Sheet Collapse

An article in AIG News, the Australian Institute of Geoscientists Quarterly Newsletter No. 97 August 2009, purports to state that collapse of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is impossible.

In this critique I demonstrate the writers' use of straw man arguments and other unscientific methods to support their arguments.

I commence with the authors' abstract and conclusions. The body of the text will be dealt with in due course.

Why the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are Not Collapsing.
Cliff Ollier and Colin Pain

Abstract:

Understanding Climate : #3 - Tilting At Seasons

Mar 17 2010 | comment(s)

Understanding Climate : #3 - Tilting At Seasons

The tilt of the earth's axis gives us our seasons.

But not in an obvious way.

Understanding climate science requires a cross-disciplinary approach. This is the second part of the mainly astronomical section. In part 2, I introduced the idea of, in a manner of speaking, building a model of our earth-moon-sun system. Here I continue with a discussion of seasons and their primary astronomical causes.

The Fallacy Of The Average

Mar 17 2010 | comment(s)

The Fallacy Of The Average

A fallacy is a pattern of logical reasoning which appears on its surface to be a pattern of sound reasoning. The fallacy of the average is based on the false notion that the effect of a thing averaged out on a large scale is equivalent to an effect of the same thing on a small scale.

A drop of rain falling anywhere in the Pacific is self-evidently insignificant as a matter of scale.

But what if that single drop of rain falls into the mains supply circuit of a radio?

A Day On The Farm

Mar 16 2010 | comment(s)

There are far too many theories about the best way to teach kids.

Dr. Seuss had the right idea: make it fun. It's good to have a child actually beg you to read something out loud.

Never mind the Saggerbotham theory of linguistic competence or the Higginsmythe phoneme-clustering prolexial algorithm. These are kids, for crying out loud! Let them have fun!

When learning is so much fun, why would any kid want you to stop just so you can teach them useful words like onomatopoeia?

With those thoughts in mind, here is another of my verses for children. I hope that it may help to instil a love of words in many children. And if any of you adults enjoy it - I'm cool with that.

Understanding Climate : #2 - Earth Air Water Fire

Mar 15 2010 | comment(s)

Understanding Climate : #2 - Earth Air Water Fire

Climate science is a cross-disciplinary study.

I have listed some of the disciplines in Understanding Climate : #1 - Components Of Climate
and have hinted at others in Mother Earth Cycles To Work.

In this article I shall introduce some astronomical scale inputs to our global climate system. I shall be developing the ideas in what I hope will be easily digested chunks.

This is the first chunk of the astronomy section.

Understanding Climate : #1 - Components Of Climate

Mar 14 2010 | comment(s)

Understanding Climate : #1 - Components Of Climate

The difference between weather and climate

Weather is what you see every day: whatever the sky is doing, that is your local weather. Sun, rain, hail, snow, thunder and lightning - all these are weather. Fluffy white clouds, thunderheads, tornados, hurricanes - all are weather.

Wherever you live in the world you can pretty much guess what sort of weather you will get season by season and what weather you won't get. The range of your local weather throughout the year doesn't change much from year to year. If you live in one region, snow may be common - in another region snow may be unheard of.